There's plenty of lithium for phones, computers and bikes. The problem comes if it starts getting used in
cars. This 2-part article in EV World explains:
EVWORLD FEATURE: Peak Lithium?
EVWORLD FEATURE: Peak Lithium? - Part 2
The point is illustrated by this quote:
Quote:
|
"If you took all the lithium carbonate that we are producing today and put it into small plug-in hybrid battery, an 8 kWh battery (HEV20), you could produce about six million cars, which is one-third of United States sales each year, and ten percent of annual global sales," Tahil said, noting that all current lithium production is currently allocated to other applications.
|
So our global annual lithium production could only make batteries for 10% of the cars we currently build a year, and only then if we stopped using it in everything else. The article gives some info on the current state of supplies - it's not declining, but as with oil, and in fact any mineral resource, the cheap stuff is extracted first, and then you hit a peak.
Of course the answer is to get everyone out of cars and onto bikes or public transport, then there should be plenty of lithium to go round, but the fact is people love their cars and will only be forced out of them by price. So we can expect to see oil prices climbing a lot higher in future, and probably lithium prices too, if they start getting used in cars in a big way.
Which is why I've just ordered pedelecs for myself and my wife, even though we still have a car and two other bikes - I believe the prices of them are going to get higher and the waiting lists longer, as people start choosing them over cars based on price. I'd rather be ahead of the game, and start weaning myself off dependence on oil before the masses join in in a big rugby scrum!
Mike