I'm quite pessimistic about this and I believe the internal combustion engine is going to be the last mass market vehicle we will see. There were 590 million cars on the road globally in 2002; I don't see how we will have the money, energy and raw materials to replace these with electric or hydrogen cars let alone dispose of them.
I'm with Mike that we are already at peak oil and are currently on a plateau, we may see a few more 'peaks' in the next decade but the underlying trend will be down. We will have to face the fact that we will have to live with less energy and that means less driving, flying, products from China and so forth.
To finally add salt to the wounds, we have an economic system that is based on cheap energy inputs and taking on debt. Debt is usually required to be repaid with interest which again means each year we have to make and earn more to repay what we borrowed the year before. We are faced with a breakdown of the entire economic system.
Personally I don't see an orderly transition to a lower energy lifestyle, there is too much imbalance in the haves and have nots. I see resource wars and the key players are already squaring up.
I think I need to get out more ;-)
Last edited by andysmee : 4th August 2008 at 09:40.
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