Peak Oil - myth or reality ?

[sopht]

Originally Posted by mikepepler

no transport alternative where you can "recharge" in a minute to give hundreds of miles of range for a large vehicle.
Mike

Not if batteries are universal - a quick swap and you're away.

Needs government lead. I think the UK could be ideally placed to develop new electric/fuel cell transport systems, having let go of nearly all conventional manufacturing capabilities. ie the capital investment's already gone, the technological expertise still (probably) around, a need to re-diversify our increasingly services based economy.

Just a thought

[sopht]

a quick swap at the battery station, that is

[flecc]

Originally Posted by nikon201

Flecc

If that's the case, why are lithium batteries so expensive? Could we expect to see them become cheaper as demand rises?

Jon

It's not the constituents but a combination of their complexity, production setup costs and for e-bikes, the relatively small scale of production with assembly all by hand that makes them expensive. It's widely expected that they will reduce in price in a couple of years time.

To see how complex their circuitry is compared with most battery types, have a look at this page on one of my sites.
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[mikepepler]

There's plenty of lithium for phones, computers and bikes. The problem comes if it starts getting used in cars. This 2-part article in EV World explains:
EVWORLD FEATURE: Peak Lithium?
EVWORLD FEATURE: Peak Lithium? - Part 2

The point is illustrated by this quote:

"If you took all the lithium carbonate that we are producing today and put it into small plug-in hybrid battery, an 8 kWh battery (HEV20), you could produce about six million cars, which is one-third of United States sales each year, and ten percent of annual global sales," Tahil said, noting that all current lithium production is currently allocated to other applications.

So our global annual lithium production could only make batteries for 10% of the cars we currently build a year, and only then if we stopped using it in everything else. The article gives some info on the current state of supplies - it's not declining, but as with oil, and in fact any mineral resource, the cheap stuff is extracted first, and then you hit a peak.

Of course the answer is to get everyone out of cars and onto bikes or public transport, then there should be plenty of lithium to go round, but the fact is people love their cars and will only be forced out of them by price. So we can expect to see oil prices climbing a lot higher in future, and probably lithium prices too, if they start getting used in cars in a big way.

Which is why I've just ordered pedelecs for myself and my wife, even though we still have a car and two other bikes - I believe the prices of them are going to get higher and the waiting lists longer, as people start choosing them over cars based on price. I'd rather be ahead of the game, and start weaning myself off dependence on oil before the masses join in in a big rugby scrum!

Mike

[flecc]

No denying that the easiest is extracted first Mike, but lithium is not hard to access in the way that many fossil fuels are and it's abundant.

I don't think it matters how much cars will use since we already have direct hydrogen power and fuel cell power as proven technologies, the latter already working down to very small battery sizes. Therefore lithium doesn't need to last long as it's already scheduled for replacement.

In fact the constant annual putting back of the launch of lithium powered cars has enabled hydrogen vehicles not only to catch up but pass battery types, with hydrogen powered buses in service at various points in the world including some in London. There have already been at least three viable hydrogen powered e-bikes, one of those even being privately built, showing how accessible this technology is. That privateer's 30 mph and over 50 mile range is better than lithium batteries do.

All we need is the nuclear power stations to generate the necessary electricity and we can see direct and indirect hydrogen use and lithium batteries in place side by side, with hydrogen able to take over at will. Since we are at long last starting to move on nuclear power and other parts of the world are more willing than us, I don't think we should have too gloomy a view of prospects, for ourselves at least.

Whether others like China sleepwalk the world into global climate change meltdown is in the lap of the gods, whatever will be, will be. I know no absolute reason why the human race or even biological life itself should necessarily persist.
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[oldosc]

As any fule no, the free market model has soo much altruism built in to it the question 'wats posterity ever goin to do for me ?' could never be meaningful...

[andysmee]

I'm quite pessimistic about this and I believe the internal combustion engine is going to be the last mass market vehicle we will see. There were 590 million cars on the road globally in 2002; I don't see how we will have the money, energy and raw materials to replace these with electric or hydrogen cars let alone dispose of them.

I'm with Mike that we are already at peak oil and are currently on a plateau, we may see a few more 'peaks' in the next decade but the underlying trend will be down. We will have to face the fact that we will have to live with less energy and that means less driving, flying, products from China and so forth.

To finally add salt to the wounds, we have an economic system that is based on cheap energy inputs and taking on debt. Debt is usually required to be repaid with interest which again means each year we have to make and earn more to repay what we borrowed the year before. We are faced with a breakdown of the entire economic system.

Personally I don't see an orderly transition to a lower energy lifestyle, there is too much imbalance in the haves and have nots. I see resource wars and the key players are already squaring up.

I think I need to get out more ;-)

[flecc]

Originally Posted by andysmee

There were 590 million cars on the road globally in 2002; I don't see how we will have the money, energy and raw materials to replace these with electric or hydrogen cars let alone dispose of them.

We will have to face the fact that we will have to live with less energy and that means less driving, flying.

I see resource wars and the key players are already squaring up.

I think I need to get out more ;-)

The money is only a product of the other things, so we print that, the energy can be nuclear for a very long time, and the raw materials can come 80% from what we already use, by recycling. Much of what we receive from China already is made from our recycled waste.

I do agree that we wil have to do less driving, flying etc, if only because we are so wasteful in the way we so unnecessarily do it at present.

And I agree on resource wars if the population continues to grow, water being the next one looming.

But please don't get out more Andy, remember we have to do less travelling!
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[prState]

Right now, over here, new off shore drilling is suddenly seeming like a good idea.

Personally, I'm reminded of the advice of not to go shopping when you're are hungry.

The public wants a solution, so, in a sense, they are willing to buy any snake oil solution. That is, in a sense, no real solution.

But the politicians will get votes for it.

[Footie]

Originally Posted by andysmee

.... We will have to face the fact that we will have to live with less energy and that means less driving, flying, products from China and so forth.

The exception being electric bikes, of course

I seem to remember (as a child) when oil extraction started in the North Sea (I can’t remember the exact date) - how everyone laughed at the idea. I seem to remember everyone gasping at the expense (Panorama investigations, etc) and how it would have a very low return (probably around the 1970’s). 30 years on and now with those same North Sea fields seemingly close to being played out - “oil peak” or “no oil peak” perhaps the oil / tar sands may yet prove a viable option at sometime in the future.

Wonder what fuel will be when that happens? £20, £50 or even £100 a litre

Just think how nice it will be to wave to those wealthy folk as they pass you by, you on your ebike, them in their shinny Eco cars, with it's 100 mpg engine and £2000 a year road tax - won't it be grand
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