What will be the next major step forward

[KirstinS]

Throttle are a bit controversial, but they seem to be important to some people. Older people benefit from being able to stop peddling to take a rest. It seems that due to EU regulation, it is unlikely we will see higher speeds.

There is no regulation governing maximum range, and so we may see improvements here. We are still waiting for a better battery. No doubt there will be small incremental improvements, but it is unlikely that we will see an order of magnitude improvement in battery power to weight ratio. Unlikely, but not totally impossible.

I prefer throttles for the level of instant control it gives you over pedal power to electric ratio. I'm "only" 36 so not exactly old age yet. But a rest is also good as I use r commuting - if I feel a sweat coming on I can go all power and no pedal

As for batteries - I read a lot of tech websites and there are new battery tech announced near daily. None of them ever seem to go anywhere - others more knowledgable than me hugest this is to attract funding

Still I prefer to live in hope that one of the plethora will be real and a big leap is just around the corner*


*how far is the corner is the question here !

 

[Croxden]

*how far is the corner is the question here !

It's just before the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[oldtom]

It's just before the light at the end of the tunnel.

I hope you're not mistaking that for an oncoming train!

Tom

 

[Croxden]

I hope you're not mistaking that for an oncoming train!

Tom

You've been watching to many cartoons.

Look out... to late.

 

[flecc]

As for batteries - - - - - - I prefer to live in hope that one of the plethora will be real and a big leap is just around the corner*

The problem with battery technology advances is that they are invariably accompanied by disadvantages. Every time I see an announcement of a leap forward, the increase factor claimed can be had from existing batteries at the cost of other aspects. For example:

A lithium battery can last ten years and over 3600 daily charges if only a seventh of the capacity is used gently every day and the recharge is also at a gentle rate. Satellite batteries do this all the time.

We can also use them daily at quite high discharge rates in our e-bikes, discharging to almost empty in less than two hours and recharging quite quickly, but after a couple of years or so it's all over.

One can be designed to start engines at huge discharge rates for two or three years, but that use can only be intermittently for the brief time it takes to start an engine.

The battery that can do all three is the holy grail, but the laws of chemistry and physics mean there's virtually no chance that will ever happen. It's much more likely that an alternative way of doing things will take the place of the battery, maybe super-capacitors, fuel cells or a technology not yet invented. Or we may decide it's much more sensible to arrange other ways to travel or even devise ways of living that doesn't need all this travelling.
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[neptune]

I liked your last paragraph, flecc, very perceptive. I suspect that at present, a high proportion of ebike mileage is done purely for pleasure. I suspect that over 90% of journeys by ebike are well within the range of current batteries. A theoretical solution for those who wish for more range is battery hire, but that increases costs, because the person hiring out the batteries has to make a profit.

An alternative to a larger capacity battery is of course a battery that can be charged very fast. Ultra capacitors would be feasible if charging stations were readily available 24/7, as whilst their capacity is not very high, they can be charged very fast.

A long while ago, I wrote a post on the psychology of travel, and how much of it is done for recreation. For recreational travel we have the choice of accepting what we have, do more pedal cycling, or emulate yourself and do a bit of walking. Or any combination of the above.

 

[tongxinpete]

Regarding throttles, even if OEM bikes were forcibly only sold as pedelecs, a different controller & a throttle cost £15 to your door from China!!! Swap it out & you are away. Look how folks convert cars from stock, not least the exhaust that makes three times the noise of the original - & miraculously still this sails throu the MOT. Living at one time next to a crack house, & viewed so many domestics etc, the chance of a copper ever checking up on an ebike is honestly zero, they do not have the manpower, nor the inclination to swamp themselves in paperwork. I doubt that the do gooders in the EUSSR ivory tower have ever actually ridden an ebike to work. The 1896 red flag act eventually disappeared, allowing the ICE motor to prosper. Imagine if there was a 500cc upper engine size limit. That would make a car pretty unappealing & it would never stick, once it was seen on TV how bigger motors made a better car in say the USA

 

[flecc]

Imagine if there was a 500cc upper engine size limit. That would make a car pretty unappealing & it would never stick, once it was seen on TV how bigger motors made a better car in say the USA

That's a false comparison Pete. The reasons for the e-bike limitation are simply that the rider is an unknown quantity and there is no insurance to protect the public. Drivers of other vehicles have a test for competence and have to have third party insurance.

I agree that there are other ways of ensuring public safety, for example only having the assist speed limit with no power restriction and also having compulsory insurance. In fact the EU parliament did consider similar recently, but their consensus after the EU commission added it's thoughts was that was not desirable.

The EU do not in any way restrict e-bikes to 25 kph and 250 watts, they merely have the "S" classes for them allowing more power and speed, but of course they do carry some restrictions in the interests of public safety. Typically those are insurance, with registration and plate so that can be checked, and a bar from using any paths shared with pedestrians.

All of the foregoing is entirely reasonable.

As an EU member we in the UK can have the "S" class e-bikes, it's not the EU stopping us, it's the UK government's DfT, so the blame should be put where it belongs and not unfairly at the EU parliament or commission. That's best left to the Daily Mail which we know is as much a comic as a newspaper.
.

 

[Deleted member 4366]

Throttles are not illegal in Europe. The rule is that you can only get power when the pedals are turning. It would be dead easy to make a throttle enabling device from the the pedal sensor signal. I've already made one. It wouldn't be as good as a totally independent throttle, and no good for people that can't pedal at all.

 

[PzPhil]

OK, I know I'm new on here and haven't even bought an ebike yet, but here's my twopennorth:

You're all barking up the wrong tree! The problem with ebikes at the moment is that they are a niche market, both customers and suppliers are essentially enthusiasts who are prepared to seek out the knowledge to enable them to buy or build an ebike that suits them.

It is clearly the case that most of the bikes on the market would serve the needs of most potential buyers. However, if, like me, you've got to spend the best part of a week's spare time searching out the knowledge to enable you to choose a bike, then send off the thick end of £1000 to a mail-order supplier to get a "budget" ebike, in the knowledge that any warranty work is likely to be on a return-to-base principle, and that your local bike shop won't want to have anything to do with it so you're on your own for long-term maintenance and repairs, then it's clear that ebikes will inevitably remain a niche market. The public at large will not jump through all these hoops, nor does £1000 for a bicycle look like good value to a non-enthusiast.

So, basically the market needs a 36V 10Ah bike or folder of conventional design using standard bike parts and decent quality to be sold for £500 (at a push, £600) at an outlet near you, where you can also get it fixed (sadly, at the moment, this would seem to e Half*rds).

 

[John F]

OK, I know I'm new on here and haven't even bought an ebike yet, but here's my twopennorth:

You're all barking up the wrong tree! The problem with ebikes at the moment is that they are a niche market, both customers and suppliers are essentially enthusiasts who are prepared to seek out the knowledge to enable them to buy or build an ebike that suits them.

It is clearly the case that most of the bikes on the market would serve the needs of most potential buyers. However, if, like me, you've got to spend the best part of a week's spare time searching out the knowledge to enable you to choose a bike, then send off the thick end of £1000 to a mail-order supplier to get a "budget" ebike, in the knowledge that any warranty work is likely to be on a return-to-base principle, and that your local bike shop won't want to have anything to do with it so you're on your own for long-term maintenance and repairs, then it's clear that ebikes will inevitably remain a niche market. The public at large will not jump through all these hoops, nor does £1000 for a bicycle look like good value to a non-enthusiast.

So, basically the market needs a 36V 10Ah bike or folder of conventional design using standard bike parts and decent quality to be sold for £500 (at a push, £600) at an outlet near you, where you can also get it fixed (sadly, at the moment, this would seem to e Half*rds).

I agree entirely. I went to my local all ebike shop when I first got interested 13 months ago. Cheapest bike was £1,100 with 10 amp battery. Mail order got me a 15 amp for £800 so I went for that one. I think £1,000 is a "barrier" that most people don't want to pass, so bike shops like my example are going to appeal only to the wealthy / enthusiasts.

 

[superDove]

Any electric folder would be too heavy to carry so would need to roll.

I would like to see the new square bottle batteries with integrated chargers in as well. So I can recharge and recaffeinate at the same time

 

[Gubbins]

I agree entirely. I went to my local all ebike shop when I first got interested 13 months ago. Cheapest bike was £1,100 with 10 amp battery. Mail order got me a 15 amp for £800 so I went for that one. I think £1,000 is a "barrier" that most people don't want to pass, so bike shops like my example are going to appeal only to the wealthy / enthusiasts.

Similarly, I became interested abut 15 months ago, but dont have an e-bay shop anywhere near, so, dilemma is..
Buy on line with shipping issues to sort any problems, or buy from the catalogue at LBS also with support for problems they are not kitted out to deal with. As of today, cheapest e bike at LBS is £1150

 

[flecc]

So, basically the market needs a 36V 10Ah bike or folder of conventional design using standard bike parts and decent quality to be sold for £500 (at a push, £600) at an outlet near you, where you can also get it fixed (sadly, at the moment, this would seem to e Half*rds).

It might appear that is what is need to make a mass market, but it isn't true and in Britain it won't work for the following reasons:

We have become a car driving society like the USA where virtually only the enthusiasts cycle in any way. Very few car drivers will ever take up cycling and only do if they already know how to ride a bike.

The growth in parental obsession with child safety since around 1980 means that a very high and ever increasing proportion of adults have never learnt to cycle, something that is virtually never attempted then in adulthood.

Britain has the notion that cycling is a sporting and fitness pursuit and the public don't view the bicycle as transport. This alone severely limits takeup of cycling, and since e-bikes are not seen as sporting machines, their market suffers from this aspect even more.

This car driving society doesn't like cyclists and often complains about them. This limits what any government can do in the way of cycling provision on the roads. We know it needs billions spent to catch up with the likes of the Netherlands, but any government attempting that will be met with a storm of protest from the cyclist hating public.

Connected with the above, cycling in our present road conditions is seen as extremely dangerous by many if not most. A bit like the fear of crime, the belief is far greater than the reality, but that belief prevents many from cycling.

Finally, showing that your basic premise is wrong, the Netherlands is a hugely successful e-bike market, by far the largest in Europe with one in every six bikes bought being an e-bike and most of their 22 millions population cycling. The e-bikes they buy tend to be at the expensive end and mostly European made, far above and often a multiple of your target price, and cheap Chinese e-bikes are hardly present there. Ergo, price never deterred them, they buy them because they are already utility cyclists and see cycling as transport.
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[oldtom]

It might appear that is what is need to make a mass market, but it isn't true and in Britain it won't work for the following reasons:

We have become a car driving society like the USA where virtually only the enthusiasts cycle in any way. Very few car drivers will ever take up cycling and only do if they already know how to ride a bike.

The growth in parental obsession with child safety since around 1980 means that a very high and ever increasing proportion of adults have never learnt to cycle, something that is virtually never attempted then in adulthood.

Britain has the notion that cycling is a sporting and fitness pursuit and the public don't view the bicycle as transport. This alone severely limits takeup of cycling, and since e-bikes are not seen as sporting machines, their market suffers from this aspect even more.

This car driving society doesn't like cyclists and often complains about them. This limits what any government can do in the way of cycling provision on the roads. We know it needs billions spent to catch up with the likes of the Netherlands, but any government attempting that will be met with a storm of protest from the cyclist hating public.

Connected with the above, cycling in our present road conditions is seen as extremely dangerous by many if not most. A bit like the fear of crime, the belief is far greater than the reality, but that belief prevents many from cycling.

Finally, showing that your basic premise is wrong, the Netherlands is a hugely successful e-bike market, by far the largest in Europe with one in every six bikes bought being an e-bike and most of their 22 millions population cycling. The e-bikes they buy tend to be at the expensive end and mostly European made, far above and often a multiple of your target price, and cheap Chinese e-bikes are hardly present there. Ergo, price never deterred them, they buy them because they are already utility cyclists and see cycling as transport.
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Without meaning to sound patronising, I'd call that an intelligent and well-thought 'state of the nation' article with regard to British cycling today.

Tom

 

[John F]

Finally, showing that your basic premise is wrong, the Netherlands is a hugely successful e-bike market, by far the largest in Europe with one in every six bikes bought being an e-bike and most of their 22 millions population cycling. The e-bikes they buy tend to be at the expensive end and mostly European made, far above and often a multiple of your target price, and cheap Chinese e-bikes are hardly present there. Ergo, price never deterred them, they buy them because they are already utility cyclists and see cycling as transport.
.

So you are intimating that if our bikes were generally dearer (and therefore by implication "better") the British public are more likely to emulate the Dutch?

Another reason, other than cost, why they don't sell in Britain is that, for younger people at least, they wouldn't be seen dead on one.

On the other hand they ALL seem to have iPhones at £500 a go. Another reason why the OP suggested £500 as target! All it needs is David Beckham to get one and sing its praises and they'll fly off the shelves.

 

[flecc]

So you are intimating that if our bikes were generally dearer (and therefore by implication "better") the British public are more likely to emulate the Dutch?

That's a very odd conclusion to draw from what I posted John, the Dutch example merely disproved the OP's conclusion.

It's blindingly obvious from my post that what needs to change in Britain are all the preceding factors that prevent so many from cycling at any price.
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[Deleted member 4366]

I believe that there was a step change this year. All the dealers I spoke to recently reported exceptional sales. I would expect another step up next year. I spent a couple of days with a multi-franchise dealer and I can tell you that none of the people interested in buying or actually buying ebikes were enthusiasts. Most of them had seen a friend or neighbour with one, and decided they wanted to get out in the fresh air themselves for convenient transport and exercise. It'll be like pyramid selling. The more people that have them, the more people will be influenced to want one. The price point is obviously important to these punters, but, like with everything, there's a few that would rather pay to have the best, while the most are nervous about spending a lot on an unknown product. I guess that when they move on to their second purchase, they'll be in a better position to decide on the value of more expensive bikes.

I think people are right about the need to provide cheaper bikes to stimulate the market. My calculation says that you can make something like a £100 supermarket bike with a basic electric kit for about £350 . You then need to allow for warranty, then add on profit - say £100, so you're up to £500 if you sell it yourself. This is more or less what Sports HQ and tesco did with their bikes. If you want a dealer to sell it for you, they'll want at least £200, which gets you to where the cheapest ebikes are now. The only way I can see it going cheaper is if the Chinese created their own brands rather than making different bikes for every different European customer. Then they could change to mass production and get the economies of scale and reliable quality controls; however, I can't see how that change would come about.

At the moment, we're still seeing a divergence in supply. There's more and more motor types and systems while the market expands. Eventually there will be a rationalisation, where particular products and brands will become more popular. The rationalisation will come because somebody gets a technology advantage, maybe by clever design, and others by clever marketing.

 

[Kudoscycles]

It might appear that is what is need to make a mass market, but it isn't true and in Britain it won't work for the following reasons:

We have become a car driving society like the USA where virtually only the enthusiasts cycle in any way. Very few car drivers will ever take up cycling and only do if they already know how to ride a bike.

The growth in parental obsession with child safety since around 1980 means that a very high and ever increasing proportion of adults have never learnt to cycle, something that is virtually never attempted then in adulthood.

Britain has the notion that cycling is a sporting and fitness pursuit and the public don't view the bicycle as transport. This alone severely limits takeup of cycling, and since e-bikes are not seen as sporting machines, their market suffers from this aspect even more.

This car driving society doesn't like cyclists and often complains about them. This limits what any government can do in the way of cycling provision on the roads. We know it needs billions spent to catch up with the likes of the Netherlands, but any government attempting that will be met with a storm of protest from the cyclist hating public.

Connected with the above, cycling in our present road conditions is seen as extremely dangerous by many if not most. A bit like the fear of crime, the belief is far greater than the reality, but that belief prevents many from cycling.

Finally, showing that your basic premise is wrong, the Netherlands is a hugely successful e-bike market, by far the largest in Europe with one in every six bikes bought being an e-bike and most of their 22 millions population cycling. The e-bikes they buy tend to be at the expensive end and mostly European made, far above and often a multiple of your target price, and cheap Chinese e-bikes are hardly present there. Ergo, price never deterred them, they buy them because they are already utility cyclists and see cycling as transport.
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Flecc.agree with all you say excepting the price point/chinese.....the biggest seller of e-bikes in China sells 10,000 plus per year through full page adverts in Telegrafie newspaper. The last time I looked they were euro 795.00,he distributes them through Fieds Net (a mobile bike repair network),they are a classic step thru design-SWX motor,rim brakes,one colour one size,he makes a small unit profit but the bulk ends up a reasonably big profit. It wouldnt work here,we have a small market and everybody wants something different so there isnt the volume available.
Having said that,the last 3 months are the best I have experienced since starting the e-bike business and most customers are very pleased with the e-bike experience.
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

I'm not in any way posting against the lower price Chinese products Dave, they are very welcome in our or any market. I only used then as an example of price being less of a factor than all the others that prevent more cycling in Britain.

JohnF's comment on £500 i-Phone sales to the young shows that desire always overcomes price barriers. For e-bikes to sell well people need to want them, and far too few do yet in Britain. It's getting better slowly, but there's a very long way to go before we can reach the critical mass that brings widespread popularity. That needs e-bikes seen frequently on everyone's trips out.
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