Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
Simon Coveny was on our late night TV polical program last night. He attempts to be polite and inoffensive in any of his answers, but got caught out when asked about Cheltenham. He struggled inwardly for a few seconds before saying ." Well it would not have gone on in this country.".... Which is basically saying we are furious that such a wanton and potentially destructive activity ,which will put thousands more at risk was ever considered a good idea.
Fair comment, in the UK politics is very much about expediency and looking after one's pals, especially when the Tories are in power.
.
 

Wicky

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2014
2,823
4,011
Colchester, Essex
www.jhepburn.co.uk
Someone on QT brought up a good point last night. What about prisons and nut houses? When the virus takes hold in these places the consequences are going to be dire. What will the government do?
Like the how the homesless govt are oddly quiet on what specific plans are

Iran let a load out and Italy had to deal with riots - some prisoners broke into the infirmary and got hold of bit more methodone than they could handle...

Alien 3 is probably what will play out >>> After her last encounter, Ellen Ripley crash-lands on Fiorina 161, a maximum security prison. When a series of strange and deadly events occur shortly after her arrival, Ripley realizes that she has brought along an unwelcome visitor.

Also up in the air are exams


And a friend who commutes to work into London to St Barts hospital tried this morning to phone in sick with a cold but they wouldn't accept her excuse so she's having to still go in by train - catch 22 she can't be off sick without testing , and to be tested you've got to be on death's door needing medical intervention.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
ENOUGH

Lets put this Covid-19 into perspective:

China has had some 3100 coronavirus deaths over the weeks.

Assuming a life expectancy of 80 years, their normal death rate in that country of 1.4 billion people is 48,000 PER DAY.
.

Italy is said to be hard hit with just over 1000 coronavirus deaths over the weeks.

Assuming the same 80 year life expectancy in that country of 60 million people, their normal death rate is 2025 PER DAY.

Don't think we should be worrying about Covid-19, it's all the rest that we should be terrified of!
.
 
Last edited:

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,407
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Don't think we should be worrying about Covid-19, it's all the rest that we should be terrified of!
the idea that is to go before one's time is scary.
that put me off driving some years ago.
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,407
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Assuming a life expectancy of 80 years, their normal death rate in that country of 1.4 billion people is 458,000 PER DAY.
one zero out.
deaths per day based on average 80 year life expectancy: 1,400,000,000 / (80 * 365) = 47,945
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
the idea that is to go before one's time is scary.
that put me off driving some years ago.
But it needs to be in perspective.

In a true scale graph of the death rate, there will have to be an enormous increase in covid-19 deaths before the increase due to it will even begin to show.

The same will be true of life expectancy, the figure will barely be dented.

The low percentage going from catching to dying and the deaths being predominately of the old ensure both of those will be true.
.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Zlatan

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
one zero out.
deaths per day based on average 80 year life expectancy: 1,400,000,000 / (80 * 365) = 47,945
Thanks, now corrected. It wasn't a zero out so much as my lousy typing. I was typing 48,000 but accidentally inserted a 5 between the 4 and 8.
.
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,407
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
But it needs to be in perspective.

In a true scale graph of the death rate, there will have to be an enormous increase in covid-19 deaths before the increase due to it will even begin to show.

The same will be true of life expectancy, the figure will barely be dented.

The low percentage going from catching to dying and the deaths being predominately of the old ensure both of those will be true.
.
based on EU's estimate of 70% of us will get contaminated sometime this year, you are looking at possibly 5%-10% needing hospitalisation (those with underlying health conditions).
65 millions * 70% * 7.5% = 3.4 millions in one year
that is on top of the usual demand on the NHS for hospital beds.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
based on EU's estimate of 70% of us will get contaminated sometime this year, you are looking at possibly 5%-10% needing hospitalisation (those with underlying health conditions).
65 millions * 70% * 7.5% = 3.4 millions in one year
that is on top of the usual demand on the NHS for hospital beds.
Of course I agree if that EU estimate is correct.

I think it a large exaggeration. That's first based on all the information from previous spreads like Saars which are said to have been more harmful than Covid-19.

Second based on increased governmental measures of containment.

And third based on the population self isolating more and more due to the above and as their fear spreads.
.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zlatan

Wicky

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2014
2,823
4,011
Colchester, Essex
www.jhepburn.co.uk
Friend who lives in Colchester and works in NHS at Barts...

This is long but please read and tell me if this sounds clear to you because I am still seriously confused!

WEDNESDAY
9am - I tell work duty officer I have symptoms. She makes a joke about it
10am - Advice from CEO says tell the duty officer if you have symptoms
10.15am - I reiterate to duty officer in writing I have symptoms. She backtracks somewhat, says her earlier comment was "out of context" and asks if I feel well enough to be at work. I say yes and carry on.

THURSDAY (my day off)
Am - Feel a bit worse so call 111 for advice. No advice unless you've been in contact with confirmed case.
Pm - Tell boss I still feel unwell but well enough to work so agree I'll go in on Friday
Eve - Government advice comes out saying self isolate if you have symptoms

FRIDAY
6am - call and leave vouce mail for duty officer saying I'm taking government advice and will work from home
8am - text boss and agree I'll work from home.
8.05am - start working from home
8.15am - speak to duty manager (DM). DM asks if I'm sick and I said no. DM asks am I therefore self isolating and I say yes. DM says she doesn't know if I was allowed to do that without going sick and someone will 'get back to me'.
8.30am - speak to boss, say DM confused but we agree I'm working from home unless told otherwise and we both await clarification.
9.30am - No call. No advice. I email DM.
9.35am - DM says CEO on a call and she'll confirm asap
9.45am I call Trust 'wellbeing' service who don't know either. Wellbeing say manager should clarify. I say manager doesn't know which is why I'm calling them. Wellbeing say am I sick? I say no. Wellbeing say go to work.
9.50am I go to work
9.55am I e mail DM and text boss to say I'm coming in.
11.40 arrive at work
11.45 I check in with DM. She is surprised and asks why I came in...
- I ask for clarity and am told I am sick but not sick and must work but can not be in the office and can not work from home...
- I say I am still confused. DM tells me it is perfectly clear and calls in the CEO
12.00pm - meeting with CEO, DM, Deputy CEO and manager. Asked if I am sick, I say no. Asked if I have symptoms I say yes. Told I am sick and must go home.
I say...so I'm sick, even though I feel well enough to work? They say... I must be the one to make that decision..
I say then I am well enough to work...
They say but you have symptoms you should self isolate.... I say I will go home and self issolate..
They say..so you are sick? I say no... they say you have to be sick to self issolate..
I say, I'm not sick.. I can go and do my work and they say.. but you have symptoms.. i say yes..
so they say... then you're sick and I say I'm well enough to work... and I say. I'm REALLY confused and they say
"WHY? IT'S PERFECTLY CLEAR!!" ..... !!

I kid you not, this conversation looped at least 5 times over!

And in the end?? ..
12.30pm - We agree that I must go home and must not work but am not sick.

And that on Monday I should call in "if I am sick..."! Argghhhhhh!

PLEASE SOMEBODY beam me up!!!!
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
3.4 millions in one year
that is on top of the usual demand on the NHS for hospital beds.
A second reply on this post.

Actually it's not all on top, many will not be. That's because it's mainly the elderly who will be hospitalised by Covid-19, the same elderly who take up so much of hospital resources already. And their higher covid deathrate will ease the load.
.
 
  • :D
Reactions: Woosh

Wicky

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2014
2,823
4,011
Colchester, Essex
www.jhepburn.co.uk
A second reply on this post.

Actually it's not all on top, many will not be. That's because it's mainly the elderly who will be hospitalised by Covid-19, the same elderly who take up so much of hospital resources already. And their higher covid deathrate will ease the load.
.
With time on their hands especially with bingo, cricket and footie called off but sex parties still going ahead could hasten the spread

 
  • :D
Reactions: flecc

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
Friend who lives in Colchester and works in NHS at Barts...

This is long but please read and tell me if this sounds clear to you because I am still seriously confused!

WEDNESDAY
9am - I tell work duty officer I have symptoms. She makes a joke about it
10am - Advice from CEO says tell the duty officer if you have symptoms
10.15am - I reiterate to duty officer in writing I have symptoms. She backtracks somewhat, says her earlier comment was "out of context" and asks if I feel well enough to be at work. I say yes and carry on.

THURSDAY (my day off)
Am - Feel a bit worse so call 111 for advice. No advice unless you've been in contact with confirmed case.
Pm - Tell boss I still feel unwell but well enough to work so agree I'll go in on Friday
Eve - Government advice comes out saying self isolate if you have symptoms

FRIDAY
6am - call and leave vouce mail for duty officer saying I'm taking government advice and will work from home
8am - text boss and agree I'll work from home.
8.05am - start working from home
8.15am - speak to duty manager (DM). DM asks if I'm sick and I said no. DM asks am I therefore self isolating and I say yes. DM says she doesn't know if I was allowed to do that without going sick and someone will 'get back to me'.
8.30am - speak to boss, say DM confused but we agree I'm working from home unless told otherwise and we both await clarification.
9.30am - No call. No advice. I email DM.
9.35am - DM says CEO on a call and she'll confirm asap
9.45am I call Trust 'wellbeing' service who don't know either. Wellbeing say manager should clarify. I say manager doesn't know which is why I'm calling them. Wellbeing say am I sick? I say no. Wellbeing say go to work.
9.50am I go to work
9.55am I e mail DM and text boss to say I'm coming in.
11.40 arrive at work
11.45 I check in with DM. She is surprised and asks why I came in...
- I ask for clarity and am told I am sick but not sick and must work but can not be in the office and can not work from home...
- I say I am still confused. DM tells me it is perfectly clear and calls in the CEO
12.00pm - meeting with CEO, DM, Deputy CEO and manager. Asked if I am sick, I say no. Asked if I have symptoms I say yes. Told I am sick and must go home.
I say...so I'm sick, even though I feel well enough to work? They say... I must be the one to make that decision..
I say then I am well enough to work...
They say but you have symptoms you should self isolate.... I say I will go home and self issolate..
They say..so you are sick? I say no... they say you have to be sick to self issolate..
I say, I'm not sick.. I can go and do my work and they say.. but you have symptoms.. i say yes..
so they say... then you're sick and I say I'm well enough to work... and I say. I'm REALLY confused and they say
"WHY? IT'S PERFECTLY CLEAR!!" ..... !!

I kid you not, this conversation looped at least 5 times over!

And in the end?? ..
12.30pm - We agree that I must go home and must not work but am not sick.

And that on Monday I should call in "if I am sick..."! Argghhhhhh!

PLEASE SOMEBODY beam me up!!!!
These are the people who voted for Brexit.

So it's all perfectly normal and what we should expect!
.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
With time on their hands especially with bingo, cricket and footie called off but sex parties still going ahead could hasten the spread

I was speaking of the hospitalised elderly, so perhaps the idea of an increase in sex parties is a bit ambitious!
.
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
Friend who lives in Colchester and works in NHS at Barts...

This is long but please read and tell me if this sounds clear to you because I am still seriously confused!

WEDNESDAY
9am - I tell work duty officer I have symptoms. She makes a joke about it
10am - Advice from CEO says tell the duty officer if you have symptoms
10.15am - I reiterate to duty officer in writing I have symptoms. She backtracks somewhat, says her earlier comment was "out of context" and asks if I feel well enough to be at work. I say yes and carry on.

THURSDAY (my day off)
Am - Feel a bit worse so call 111 for advice. No advice unless you've been in contact with confirmed case.
Pm - Tell boss I still feel unwell but well enough to work so agree I'll go in on Friday
Eve - Government advice comes out saying self isolate if you have symptoms

FRIDAY
6am - call and leave vouce mail for duty officer saying I'm taking government advice and will work from home
8am - text boss and agree I'll work from home.
8.05am - start working from home
8.15am - speak to duty manager (DM). DM asks if I'm sick and I said no. DM asks am I therefore self isolating and I say yes. DM says she doesn't know if I was allowed to do that without going sick and someone will 'get back to me'.
8.30am - speak to boss, say DM confused but we agree I'm working from home unless told otherwise and we both await clarification.
9.30am - No call. No advice. I email DM.
9.35am - DM says CEO on a call and she'll confirm asap
9.45am I call Trust 'wellbeing' service who don't know either. Wellbeing say manager should clarify. I say manager doesn't know which is why I'm calling them. Wellbeing say am I sick? I say no. Wellbeing say go to work.
9.50am I go to work
9.55am I e mail DM and text boss to say I'm coming in.
11.40 arrive at work
11.45 I check in with DM. She is surprised and asks why I came in...
- I ask for clarity and am told I am sick but not sick and must work but can not be in the office and can not work from home...
- I say I am still confused. DM tells me it is perfectly clear and calls in the CEO
12.00pm - meeting with CEO, DM, Deputy CEO and manager. Asked if I am sick, I say no. Asked if I have symptoms I say yes. Told I am sick and must go home.
I say...so I'm sick, even though I feel well enough to work? They say... I must be the one to make that decision..
I say then I am well enough to work...
They say but you have symptoms you should self isolate.... I say I will go home and self issolate..
They say..so you are sick? I say no... they say you have to be sick to self issolate..
I say, I'm not sick.. I can go and do my work and they say.. but you have symptoms.. i say yes..
so they say... then you're sick and I say I'm well enough to work... and I say. I'm REALLY confused and they say
"WHY? IT'S PERFECTLY CLEAR!!" ..... !!

I kid you not, this conversation looped at least 5 times over!

And in the end?? ..
12.30pm - We agree that I must go home and must not work but am not sick.

And that on Monday I should call in "if I am sick..."! Argghhhhhh!

PLEASE SOMEBODY beam me up!!!!
The clue is in the very first line and it makes the rest perfectly clear. The key letters are NHS.

The NHS is managed by a bunch of ******* idiots who gravitate there because they are so ******* stupid that no one else would employ them. With this in mind, the rest of the conversation makes perfect sense and requires no further explanation.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: daveboy and flecc

sjpt

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 8, 2018
3,642
2,652
Winchester
I was speaking of the hospitalised elderly, so perhaps the idea of an increase in sex parties is a bit ambitious!
.
Might as well go out with a bang rather than waiting for the virus to get you.
 
  • :D
Reactions: flecc

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,407
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Friend who lives in Colchester and works in NHS at Barts...

This is long but please read and tell me if this sounds clear to you because I am still seriously confused!

WEDNESDAY
9am - I tell work duty officer I have symptoms. She makes a joke about it
10am - Advice from CEO says tell the duty officer if you have symptoms
10.15am - I reiterate to duty officer in writing I have symptoms. She backtracks somewhat, says her earlier comment was "out of context" and asks if I feel well enough to be at work. I say yes and carry on.

THURSDAY (my day off)
Am - Feel a bit worse so call 111 for advice. No advice unless you've been in contact with confirmed case.
Pm - Tell boss I still feel unwell but well enough to work so agree I'll go in on Friday
Eve - Government advice comes out saying self isolate if you have symptoms

FRIDAY
6am - call and leave vouce mail for duty officer saying I'm taking government advice and will work from home
8am - text boss and agree I'll work from home.
8.05am - start working from home
8.15am - speak to duty manager (DM). DM asks if I'm sick and I said no. DM asks am I therefore self isolating and I say yes. DM says she doesn't know if I was allowed to do that without going sick and someone will 'get back to me'.
8.30am - speak to boss, say DM confused but we agree I'm working from home unless told otherwise and we both await clarification.
9.30am - No call. No advice. I email DM.
9.35am - DM says CEO on a call and she'll confirm asap
9.45am I call Trust 'wellbeing' service who don't know either. Wellbeing say manager should clarify. I say manager doesn't know which is why I'm calling them. Wellbeing say am I sick? I say no. Wellbeing say go to work.
9.50am I go to work
9.55am I e mail DM and text boss to say I'm coming in.
11.40 arrive at work
11.45 I check in with DM. She is surprised and asks why I came in...
- I ask for clarity and am told I am sick but not sick and must work but can not be in the office and can not work from home...
- I say I am still confused. DM tells me it is perfectly clear and calls in the CEO
12.00pm - meeting with CEO, DM, Deputy CEO and manager. Asked if I am sick, I say no. Asked if I have symptoms I say yes. Told I am sick and must go home.
I say...so I'm sick, even though I feel well enough to work? They say... I must be the one to make that decision..
I say then I am well enough to work...
They say but you have symptoms you should self isolate.... I say I will go home and self issolate..
They say..so you are sick? I say no... they say you have to be sick to self issolate..
I say, I'm not sick.. I can go and do my work and they say.. but you have symptoms.. i say yes..
so they say... then you're sick and I say I'm well enough to work... and I say. I'm REALLY confused and they say
"WHY? IT'S PERFECTLY CLEAR!!" ..... !!

I kid you not, this conversation looped at least 5 times over!

And in the end?? ..
12.30pm - We agree that I must go home and must not work but am not sick.

And that on Monday I should call in "if I am sick..."! Argghhhhhh!

PLEASE SOMEBODY beam me up!!!!
he should have said he has the symptoms and feels concerned that he may be a spreader and the right course of action is self isolation.
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,407
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
I think it a large exaggeration. That's first based on all the information from previous spreads like Saars which are said to have been more harmful than Covid-19.
no, I don't think it's an exaggeration.
The corona virus does not usually kill so it can infect most of us quite quickly.
If you look at the current progression, 40% every 2 days, based on 10,000 infected today, it's conceivable that 70% of the population (45 millions) would be infected by 02-May.
Giving 10 days lead time between infection and detection, the disease would peak on the 12-May.
Our government would achieve its objective of 'herd immunity' (when the disease has passed its peak) 12 days later, by the end of May.
The danger for most of us will peak mid May.
 
Last edited:

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,608
12,253
73
Ireland
Of course I agree if that EU estimate is correct.

I think it a large exaggeration. That's first based on all the information from previous spreads like Saars which are said to have been more harmful than Covid-19.

Second based on increased governmental measures of containment.

And third based on the population self isolating more and more due to the above and as their fear spreads.
.
Flecc.. the UK have done nothing worthwhile in Phase 2 containment. The Phase 1 response was good, with contact tracing etc, but Phase 2 is now poor. I think you need to re read the earlier post of today detailing plausible scenarios.
The only data which is reliable is that from China.
Now the UK initially was doing much better than the USA,and indescribably better than Italy, but the Americans are at grassroots responding better ,as of yesterday.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Barry Shittpeas

Advertisers