Brexit, for once some facts.

jonathan.agnew

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I'm ok thank you. I have the comfort that whenI visited him last in September I was able to give him a very good day.

He'd had to give up driving afew years earlier, so with the weather kind to us I spent a day driving him around all his old haunts where there had been developments that he wanted to see. My e-car was a completely new and enjoyable experience for him too. Then in the evening I treated him to a top class meal of his choice in the best restaurant in the area. He thoroughly enjoyed that day which made a considerable change from his usual routine.
.
I lost a brother a few years back, having an experience of contact before the end, saying goodbye can make all the difference, best wishes
 

Danidl

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But are the mutations stable? and what causes them?
Thats an easy question to answer. The virus infects a susceptible cell, and makes a vast number of copies of itself, however there is little error protection and correction, so a few of the copies are defective. The majority of these defects make a useless virus, which cannot replicate , and an even smaller number make potentially workable virus, which can affect a different type of cell. Then it is even more chancey that some of these ones randomly fall onto a different cell type which is susceptible to this variation ..and so it continues.
It is the law of big numbers
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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The Telegraph seems incapable of keeping Toty liars off the front pag
"
Covid-19 has exposed the folly of a one-size-fits-all health service
The folly is letting idiots like this continue pushing the notion that money should get you better health care
 

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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The Telegraph seems incapable of keeping Toty liars off the front pag
"
Covid-19 has exposed the folly of a one-size-fits-all health service
The folly is letting idiots like this continue pushing the notion that money should get you better health care
Afraid I couldn't read past the first para or so. Yes, PM is in an NHS hospital. But what does she suggest should have happened?
 
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oldgroaner

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Thats an easy question to answer. The virus infects a susceptible cell, and makes a vast number of copies of itself, however there is little error protection and correction, so a few of the copies are defective. The majority of these defects make a useless virus, which cannot replicate , and an even smaller number make potentially workable virus, which can affect a different type of cell. Then it is even more chancey that some of these ones randomly fall onto a different cell type which is susceptible to this variation ..and so it continues.
It is the law of big numbers
It would appear from reports that and the virus can become inert after attacking a patient and then reactivate after a period, is the mechanism of this process understood or unique to CV-19?
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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I think boris and those who voted for his bankrupt populism (and herd immunity) are responsible for this mess
You can’t possibly suggest that a vote for Labour or the Lib Dem’s would have somehow held the virus on the eastern side of the channel? That’s insane.

There are three factors which have put us in this situation:

1) The filthy Chinese and their animal like behaviour.
2) Complacency and a failure to learn from other countries by our government.
3) A generation (the under 40s) which have demonstrated a lack of resolve, self discipline and determination. They are pathetic and a disgrace to themselves and their parents. There is no wonder that so many are paying people like me rent for housing. The only things they are capable of achieving are those things gifted to them free of charge or for no effort, such as their A* GCSEs and fake degrees.

I think a military government would be a good idea at this time. Put senior military commanders in charge of making things happen and give them full powers to do so.
 
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oyster

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The Telegraph seems incapable of keeping Toty liars off the front pag
"
Covid-19 has exposed the folly of a one-size-fits-all health service
The folly is letting idiots like this continue pushing the notion that money should get you better health care
And the headline that shows what a shower we have:

Lockdown until May
Ministers fear making decision while Boris Johnson remains in intensive care


At this rate, the decision will be made so late as to cause its own problems.

Further, a review after three weeks means three weeks. They can't delay. People might accept further lockdown, but not performing the promised review just is not an option. No-one, even those who otherwise support them or the plan, could trust them further if they don't do that review which was promised in the clearest terms.

If the Westminster mob are not capable of making a decision, just follow the extremely clear decision in Wales. Which was also delivered in what I regarded as the right way, by Drakeford. In clear langauge, no uncertainty about it.
 

Barry Shittpeas

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I’m hearing that up to 80% of the population will need to have had Coronavirus before it’s ability to spread is thwarted. So, if the death rate is 1% and we work on 1000 deaths per day, that’s 100000 new infections per day. Therefore to infect 80% of the population (48000000) will take 480 days, about 18 months. That’s if we accept 1000 deaths per day as being ok for an 18 month period. If we go for 500 dead / day, that’s 3 years of lockdown.

I liken the lockdown measures to putting a brake on a runaway lift cage hurtling down a mineshaft. At the moment we are slowing the descent with our lockdown measures, but as soon as we take the brake off, ie come out of lockdown, isn’t the cage going to start accelerating towards the bottom of the mineshaft again? It’s got to hit the bottom sometime (80% of population infected), so Is there anything that can be done? As I think I’ve shown above, any sort of braking mechanism would need applying for 18 months to 3 years, and that’s not going to happen. That hideous cow at the passport office is already trying to bully her staff back to work.

I‘m sceptical about what is happening in China. I think they are lying.
 
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oyster

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Just what does this statement say?

Boris Johnson’s condition improved on Wednesday, with the UK prime minister now sitting up in bed and “engaging positively” with the clinical team, the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said. Johnson remains in intensive care.


Sitting up is standard, so I believe, for pneumonia. Engaging positively is capable of a wide range of interpretation but if he were spending all day chatting, different words would surely have been used?
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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And the headline that shows what a shower we have:

Lockdown until May
Ministers fear making decision while Boris Johnson remains in intensive care


At this rate, the decision will be made so late as to cause its own problems.

Further, a review after three weeks means three weeks. They can't delay. People might accept further lockdown, but not performing the promised review just is not an option. No-one, even those who otherwise support them or the plan, could trust them further if they don't do that review which was promised in the clearest terms.

If the Westminster mob are not capable of making a decision, just follow the extremely clear decision in Wales. Which was also delivered in what I regarded as the right way, by Drakeford. In clear langauge, no uncertainty about it.
Hand the task to the military. They have proper people who have actually done stuff and know things. These clowns have gone from boarding school to university to a government quango to Downing Street. They know and have done FA. Under normal circumstances they can P.R. their way through, but Coronavirus doesn’t allow that. It’s time to step up to the plate and show us what you’ve got, and these clowns can’t do that.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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The seems to be a massive anti Tory feeling in the Daily Mail’s reader’s comments section. This is particularly evident in the story concerning three nurses who were forced to make their own PPE out of bin bags and all have now contracted Coronavirus.

Clearly I’m reading these comments before the Mail’s staff have been in there cleaning up and replacing the offending comments with more suitable ones.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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Donald Trump met with the Queen of England, and he asked her, "Your Majesty, how do you run such an efficient government? Are there any tips you can give me?"

"Well," replied the Queen, "the most important thing is to surround yourself with intelligent people."

Trump frowned, and then asked, "But how do I know the people around you are really intelligent?"

The Queen took a sip of tea. "Oh, that's easy; you just ask them to answer an intelligent riddle."

The Queen pushed a button on her intercom. "Please send Boris Johnson in here, would you?"

The Prime Minster walked into the room and said, "Yes, Your Majesty?"

The Queen smiled and said, "Answer me this, if you would, Boris. Your mother and father have a child. It is not your brother and it is not your sister. Who is it?"

Without pausing for a moment, he answered, "That would be me."

"Yes! Very good," said the Queen.

Trump went back home to ask Mike Pence the same question. “ Mike, answer this for me. Your mother and your father have a child. It's not your brother and it's not your sister. Who is it?"

"I'm not sure," said Pence. "Let me get back to you on that one." He went to his advisers and asked everyone, but none could give him an answer.

Finally, Pence ran in to his friend Jack Murphy in a restaurant the next night. Pence asked, "Jack, can you answer this for me? Your mother and father have a child and it's not your brother or your sister. Who is it?"

Jack Murphy answered right back, "That's easy, it's me!"

Pence smiled, and said, "Thanks!"

Pence then went back to speak with Trump. "Say, I did some research and I have the answer to that riddle: It's my friend Jack Murphy!"

Trump got up, stomped over to Pence, and angrily yelled, "No, you idiot! It's Boris Johnson!"
 

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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It would appear from reports that and the virus can become inert after attacking a patient and then reactivate after a period, is the mechanism of this process understood or unique to CV-19?
The mechanism might be unique, but the reactivation is very well known. Chickenpox and shingles being a prime example.

The advantage for herpes zoster is the incredibly long time between origianl infection and re-emergence as shingles - plus that we have both a treatment (aciclovir) and a vaccine (albeit with limited effectiveness). And shingles is not (usually) fatal - but I have been told it can be excrutiating both at the time and long afterwards in some.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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I’m hearing that up to 80% of the population will need to have had Coronavirus before it’s ability to spread is thwarted. So, if the death rate is 1% and we work on 1000 deaths per day, that’s 100000 new infections per day. Therefore to infect 80% of the population (48000000) will take 480 days, about 18 months. That’s if we accept 1000 deaths per day as being ok for an 18 month period. If we go for 500 dead / day, that’s 3 years of lockdown.

I liken the lockdown measures to putting a brake on a runaway lift cage hurtling down a mineshaft. At the moment we are slowing the descent with our lockdown measures, but as soon as we take the brake off, ie come out of lockdown, isn’t the cage going to start accelerating towards the bottom of the mineshaft again? It’s got to hit the bottom sometime (80% of population infected), so Is there anything that can be done? As I think I’ve shown above, any sort of braking mechanism would need applying for 18 months to 3 years, and that’s not going to happen. That hideous cow at the passport office is already trying to bully her staff back to work.

I‘m sceptical about what is happening in China. I think they are lying.
The answer is glaringly obvious
pour billions into researching a vaccine and if they are promising, find volunteers among the sick to risk taking them

Remember Cowpox? lack of caution there was fully justified , desperate times call for desperate solutions
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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The answer is glaringly obvious
pour billions into researching a vaccine and if they are promising, find volunteers among the sick to risk taking them

Remember Cowpox? lack of caution there was fully justified , desperate times call for desperate solutions
I can’t believe that that is not already happening. Whoever comes up with a vaccine will hit the jackpot with this virus. It wouldn’t surprise me if a vaccine mysteriously appears from within China.
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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I’m hearing that up to 80% of the population will need to have had Coronavirus before it’s ability to spread is thwarted. So, if the death rate is 1% and we work on 1000 deaths per day, that’s 100000 new infections per day. Therefore to infect 80% of the population (48000000) will take 480 days, about 18 months. That’s if we accept 1000 deaths per day as being ok for an 18 month period. If we go for 500 dead / day, that’s 3 years of lockdown.

I liken the lockdown measures to putting a brake on a runaway lift cage hurtling down a mineshaft. At the moment we are slowing the descent with our lockdown measures, but as soon as we take the brake off, ie come out of lockdown, isn’t the cage going to start accelerating towards the bottom of the mineshaft again? It’s got to hit the bottom sometime (80% of population infected), so Is there anything that can be done? As I think I’ve shown above, any sort of braking mechanism would need applying for 18 months to 3 years, and that’s not going to happen. That hideous cow at the passport office is already trying to bully her staff back to work.

I‘m sceptical about what is happening in China. I think they are lying.
SP. Your calculation is based on linear model, the infection rate is potentially exponential.
The point of a lockdown is to reduce the transmission rate below sustainable growth, ..which means below 2 .. the carrier and the next victim. Then if the numbers get low enough ,full contact tracing can be done, selective isolation or internment and the problem is wiped out.
I don't think the Chinese are lying. Look at the Worldmeter data. They have potential for a massive explosion in numbers of infected. Every person in the hospital in Wuhan is a virus machine ..but unlike many Western leadership they know it.
 

Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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Did you know that police in Manchester had to break up over 660 parties last weekend? Some with bouncy castles and others being held in the street. That’s just Manchester.

It’s not all the government’s fault.
 
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