Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,406
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
So at some point, without a vaccine, we will have no alternative but to remove the measures keeping the infection rate linear and let it explode exponentially. As I say check-mate. How can you plan for that?
I don't think Europe is ready to let nature takes its course.
a treatment will probably be found before a vaccine. That will shorten the length of stay in hospitals and reduce the workload for the NHS. Also, it will give some re-assurance to those under curfew.
As I said, we need to keep the lockdown pretty rigid until then.
As a guess, 4-6 months for a workable treatment, 18 months for a vaccine.
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
I don't think Europe is ready to let nature takes its course.
a treatment will probably be found before a vaccine. That will shorten the length of stay in hospitals and reduce the workload for the NHS. Also, it will give some re-assurance to those under curfew.
As I said, we need to keep the lockdown pretty rigid until then.
As a guess, 4-6 months for a workable treatment, 18 months for a vaccine.
I’m mentally preparing myself for lockdown for the rest of 2020. Anything less will be a bonus.

As far as I can see, the lockdown on its own isn’t going to solve anything, it just buys time to develop other strategies to actually beat the virus. It would be good to know what the government is spending this time that they have bought on. Stay at home, protect the NHS and save lives is wearing a bit thin. You can’t keep saying it in answer to every question that is asked.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,608
12,253
72
Ireland
I thought about that, but aren’t we trying to make the naturally exponential infection rate, linear with the lockdown measures? My point is that a linear model will take 18 months to 3 years to work its way through the population.

I know that as more people develop immunity, the natural infection rate won’t be as rapid, but I think it’s going to take months of lockdown to get to that stage.
No the objective of lockdown is to reduce the effect so that it gets down to very manageable numbers ,which can be swamped with medical resources ,contact tracing . That means extensive testing and fast identification. That means those 15 minute tests with drive in centres.
 
  • :D
Reactions: POLLY

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
No the objective of lockdown is to reduce the effect so that it gets down to very manageable numbers ,which can be swamped with medical resources ,contact tracing . That means extensive testing and fast identification. That means those 15 minute tests with drive in centres.
I know the purpose of lock-down measures, that is what I’ve been saying all along.

Testing is ok, but who and how often? By the time symptoms arrive, you have probably infected ten people. If they test you at 10:00 am, you could have caught it by 10:30 and then go on to infect others before you are tested again. It’s check-mate.
 
  • :D
Reactions: POLLY

Wicky

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2014
2,823
4,011
Colchester, Essex
www.jhepburn.co.uk
At some point politicians will have to take their foot off the lockdown measures (Trump has alluded that the 'cure can't be worse than the disease'as he has an eye on the economy) - and break the news that it could get worse for folk before it gets better...

That's what they get paid to do...

 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,608
12,253
72
Ireland
I know the purpose of lock-down measures, that is what I’ve been saying all along.

Testing is ok, but who and how often? By the time symptoms arrive, you have probably infected ten people. If they test you at 10:00 am, you could have caught it by 10:30 and then go on to infect others before you are tested again. It’s check-mate.
1. By home kits .. our country has a bowel cancer test where we send in small samples of your surname in tubes and they get tested. So national testing can identify cluster areas.
2. By tightly and stringently testing the cluster vector points ..eg all care workers in Care homes , perhaps Twice weekly. The Abbott laboratories 15 minute test seems appropriate here... My suspicion here is that it is the medical doctor coming in to check up on old folk who is the primary vector.
3. By reducing the social contact so that its not 10 its 3 or 2
 
  • :D
Reactions: POLLY

sjpt

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 8, 2018
3,642
2,652
Winchester
As far as I can see, the lockdown on its own isn’t going to solve anything, it just buys time to develop other strategies to actually beat the virus.
By levelling the strain on the NHS it keeps down the death rate as a proportion of cases.

If lockdown is overly relaxed the NHS is (even more) swamped. This does not just increase the number of cases active at certain times, it increases the proportion of those cases that will die. Current treatment is far from perfect but it probably (*) saves many lives; in a big spike people will not even get the current far from perfect treatment.

(*) I don't know of data for the relative chance of death for an extreme case (a) with hospitalisation and current treatment, (b) with hospitalisation but with limited treatment due to lack of ventilators etc, (c) no hospitalisation.
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
1. By home kits .. our country has a bowel cancer test where we send in small samples of your surname in tubes and they get tested. So national testing can identify cluster areas.
2. By tightly and stringently testing the cluster vector points ..eg all care workers in Care homes , perhaps Twice weekly. The Abbott laboratories 15 minute test seems appropriate here... My suspicion here is that it is the medical doctor coming in to check up on old folk who is the primary vector.
3. By reducing the social contact so that its not 10 its 3 or 2
I can’t see this working unless the tests are carried out at least daily. I won’t say that’s not feasible, particularly with the scale of production of home test kits. But then you would need to factor in those who will deliberately spread the disease when its confirmed they have it.
 
  • :D
Reactions: POLLY

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,457
32,608
79
That ain't working
That's the way to do it
money for nothing
.
The chief executive of Tesco, Dave Lewis, should resign for using a £600m state bailout to pay dividends. A fundamental error of judgement and leadership
.
and the chicks come free
 
  • Agree
Reactions: flecc and oyster

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
There are times at which it is tempting to suggest a blacklist of addresses/phone numbers/people for 999 calls.

Plea for public to stop calling 999 for Covid-19 tests
THE Welsh Ambulance Service is appealing to the public not to call 999 for a Coronavirus test.

Some patients have been demanding that paramedics perform an on-the-spot test to rule out the virus, according to feedback from crews.
 
  • Informative
  • :D
Reactions: flecc and POLLY

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
A

FFS. They simply cannot help themselves can they. When people are frightened about their health, their family’s health, their financial security and their future livelihoods they pull a stunt like this. What a dismal display of restraint and leadership and a time when it’s needed the most. They need people to respect them and to go with them when they announce lockdown measures. They undermine all of that. What a complete shower of shite.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
I bet they could get used to this.
We have been told innumerable times that the coronavirus affects everyone, no matter how rich or important.

In which case, let the payments for working at home be equally even-handed.

(And just why should they be paid extra for working at home when HoC is in recess?)
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
There are times at which it is tempting to suggest a blacklist of addresses/phone numbers/people for 999 calls.

Plea for public to stop calling 999 for Covid-19 tests
THE Welsh Ambulance Service is appealing to the public not to call 999 for a Coronavirus test.

Some patients have been demanding that paramedics perform an on-the-spot test to rule out the virus, according to feedback from crews.
People are wanting tests so that they can go and visit their mates and relatives who are adhering to social distancing. They are faking symptoms in order to get the tests. These are the same sorts of mongs who were partying at the weekend. I’d withdraw all future medical assistance for them, put them on some sort of do not administer medical care register. Let the ***** die.
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
We have been told innumerable times that the coronavirus affects everyone, no matter how rich or important.

In which case, let the payments for working at home be equally even-handed.

(And just why should they be paid extra for working at home when HoC is in recess?)
Give it to NHS front line staff and exempt them from tax and NI until this is over. They can put my tax up to pay for it. These NHS workers are putting in proper grafting shifts at the moment. The useless ***** in Westminster aren’t fit to lick shite off the soles of their shoes. *****!
 

sjpt

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 8, 2018
3,642
2,652
Winchester
We have been told innumerable times that the coronavirus affects everyone, no matter how rich or important.

In which case, let the payments for working at home be equally even-handed.

(And just why should they be paid extra for working at home when HoC is in recess?)
It's extra important while they are working from home that their duck houses are in good shape.
 
  • :D
Reactions: flecc and oyster

Advertisers