Brexit, for once some facts.

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Interesting and probably somewhat pessimistic view of our current and future energy requirements. Either way it's not going to be plain sailing in our move to carbon free... Article doesn't mention the hole in tax revenue changing to ecars will provide..???
The author.
 
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Zlatan

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And as for OG and Woosh assuring us all it's OK to call Pritti Patel a fascist, this comment from Gay Tory answers it quite well.

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Well said that man. Think I, ll buy him a pedelec.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Except for one thing... The only value in this world is making those new things. There is no value in keeping the money. There is no inherited debt.

Which I'd covered in this excerpt:

"We suffered the same with the post war predictions that the USSR was the big enemy. Trillions were spent on armaments by both sides, money that could have immeasurably improved the lives of everyone"

i.e. Spend the money more sensibly after some forethought.
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guerney

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Of course the investors were certain that with rail they had hit the jackpot, so in a hugely expensive 40 year railway building spree the country was largely covered by rail with even some villages served by a station. Yet by the end of the 19th century just 63 years after the first railway opened, almost all the new rail companies had failed because the public only wanted rail for very limited purposes like some commuting. As those rail companies tumbled into bankruptcy at the turn of the century the public showed what they really wanted, their own private locomotive on the road, with steering so they quickly could go where they wanted to go and not to where the rail company decided. And the same happened with most of the freight. So the entire history of our rail was a 40 year boom, followed by 120 years of struggling to keep the railways alive and find more use for them.
Wasn't the demise of railways in the USA, largely due to intense sabotage efforts by Henry Ford? I'm not certain of this by the way.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Interesting and probably somewhat pessimistic view of our current and future energy requirements. Either way it's not going to be plain sailing in our move to carbon free... Article doesn't mention the hole in tax revenue changing to ecars will provide..???
The author.
Yet another article about e-cars full of errors by someone pretending to be an expert but being nothing of the sort. Best ignored.
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guerney

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And as for OG and Woosh assuring us all it's OK to call Pritti Patel a fascist, this comment from Gay Tory answers it quite well.

View attachment 44472

Well said that man. Think I, ll buy him a pedelec.
It's well said indeed! But fascist is as fascist does. My belief is that people like Raab and Patel have serious personal issues, like many who seek power: They will attempt to resolve these issues by using other people. Anyone who seeks power, should be denied it.
 
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Wasn't the demise of railways in the USA, largely due to intense sabotage efforts by Henry Ford? I'm not certain of this by the way.
No, the railways there had no trouble ruining their own future. The truth is that no railway in the world can ever pay, they have to be state supported, but the USA is culturally strongly opposed to that or anything else that hints of socialism.

Thus they ended up with Amtrack, a sort of half way lashup of state support to prevent decline into final closure.
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oyster

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No, the railways there had no trouble ruining their own future. The truth is that no railway in the world can ever pay, they have to be state supported, but the USA is culturally strongly opposed to that or anything else that hints of socialism.

Thus they ended up with Amtrack, a sort of half way lashup of state support to prevent decline into final closure.
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In the case of the USA, both road and air undermined the revenue of the railroad companies. In particular, with the distances involved, air represented the only way for mail to be carried coast to coast in acceptably short times.
 

guerney

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I'll start at some 260 years ago when from the middle to the end of the eighteenth century vast sums and effort were expended in building a canal network, confident that they would serve our economy for hundreds of years. But as the last of those canals was being completed in the 1830s, the first public railway was built, with the rapid expansion of rail then making that immensely expensive 4000 mile canal network virtually redundant.
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The canals were still useful for the transport of (delicate) pottery - for as long as that industry lasted in the UK at any great scale, but not useful enough...
 
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Zlatan

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Yet another article about e-cars full of errors by someone pretending to be an expert but being nothing of the sort. Best ignored.
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Yep, his energy density factor is a bit out but I do wonder if its a case of enjoying the journey to a Lee shore by ignoring it.
I think our Government are jumping on band wagon to distract from other failing areas.
Conversion to heat pumps is going to be far more problematic than made out.. And I, m a big fan of them. (daughter has air sourced) and it's very good... But not without problems... ie) expense, both initial cost and servicing/repairs... She often has to supplement it with electric heating which tends to offset the overall savings and will yet again produce more demand on e generation.?
 

Woosh

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you only have to look at the land use of various transport methods to see where they are going. Air transport is the way of the future when we have electric planes.
 
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oyster

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you only have to look at the land use of various transport methods to see where they are going. Air transport is the way of the future when we have electric planes.
I'm not entirely convinced. If a lot of things were transported by self-managed pods, an awful lot of things would not need to be carried in cars, vans, lorries.

If we think about the scale of items that need to be transported, I suspect that the vast majority are actually quite small. So the infrastructure would be quite modest - though obviously very extensive.
 
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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Yep, his energy density factor is a bit out but I do wonder if its a case of enjoying the journey to a Lee shore by ignoring it.
I think our Government are jumping on band wagon to distract from other failing areas.
Conversion to heat pumps is going to be far more problematic than made out.. And I, m a big fan of them. (daughter has air sourced) and it's very good... But not without problems... ie) expense, both initial cost and servicing/repairs... She often has to supplement it with electric heating which tends to offset the overall savings and will yet again produce more demand on e generation.?
Where are we in terms of cost of an air source system versus a gas boiler in a new-build estate?
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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Interesting and probably somewhat pessimistic view of our current and future energy requirements. Either way it's not going to be plain sailing in our move to carbon free... Article doesn't mention the hole in tax revenue changing to ecars will provide..???
The author.
The title" emeritus " more or less says it all. I have come across similar articles by previously distinguished professors over the decades. The analysis is spot on, but the conclusions skew. I recall similar ones arguing that renewables cannot deliver 10%, 20% , 30% of grid power or else the grid will collapse and unstable. Well we are now at a very stable 45% and under certain circumstances have achieved 100% . What is forgotten in these articles is resilience, and the ability to change.
Now the tax revenue requirement from ecars is the simplest of all to modify. Read the odometer every MOT visit.
The argument about energy storage is important, but extremely soluble. If anything they provide plenty of employment opportunities. The situation about extreme weather events causing shutdowns ..so what?. It already happens and we have demonstrated Globally over the last 18 months that we can handle it over extended periods not just a few days.
 
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oyster

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Well we are now at a very stable 45% and under certain circumstances have achieved 100% .
But that current (ha!) stability is only achieved because we have non-renewables available, and helped by things like grid interconnects (so long as they don't burn out).

If we end up with nothing other than renewables, stability might be very hard to achieve in a cold winter with little wind.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,130
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Ireland
Yep, his energy density factor is a bit out but I do wonder if its a case of enjoying the journey to a Lee shore by ignoring it.
I think our Government are jumping on band wagon to distract from other failing areas.
Conversion to heat pumps is going to be far more problematic than made out.. And I, m a big fan of them. (daughter has air sourced) and it's very good... But not without problems... ie) expense, both initial cost and servicing/repairs... She often has to supplement it with electric heating which tends to offset the overall savings and will yet again produce more demand on e generation.?
As for heat pumps my figures make interesting reading. Of 17500 hours of compressor ie heat pump operation , It called on auxiliary power .ie my older oil burner for a total of 92 hours. So that is not not really" often".
And we had it serviced this year for the first time ... The service was i think about 200 but the guy wasn't happy about a circulation pump which was noisy , so that was another 150.. and is much quieter.
 
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guerney

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Sep 7, 2021
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But that current (ha!) stability is only achieved because we have non-renewables available, and helped by things like grid interconnects (so long as they don't burn out).

If we end up with nothing other than renewables, stability might be very hard to achieve in a cold winter with little wind.
...which is when we need wave - the physical borders with Ireland and France, would be added bonuses ;)
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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I'm not entirely convinced. If a lot of things were transported by self-managed pods, an awful lot of things would not need to be carried in cars, vans, lorries.

If we think about the scale of items that need to be transported, I suspect that the vast majority are actually quite small. So the infrastructure would be quite modest - though obviously very extensive.
there is no contradiction/we are in broad agreement between my post and yours. Road transport will tend to diminish and air transport increase over time, assuming we have already replaced fossil fuel with electricity.
 

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