Brexit, for once some facts.

guerney

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The extreme ratio of height to width gives them no chance against gusts, probably why they've never caught on.
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Larger wheels tilted inwards would add stability, like paralympic wheelchairs. If the wheelbase is restricted to a certain size in law, maybe the axles could extend and the wheels could tilt when excessive cabin tilt is detected? Or simply a lower or recumbent seating position and a cab with less height. They might allow non-enclosed road legal mobility scooters in hospitals, in which case all I'd need is the full face scuba gear and sufficient oxygen...

 
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Danidl

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My area of London with our exceptionally low vaccination rates and very low infection and death rates shows that to be true, maybe more then true. I've been saying it for nearly two years now.

The vaccines aren't remotely as good as they are hyped up to be.
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No flecc.. you are misinterpreting the tenor of that argument. As far as the human body is concerned, it makes little difference whether the immune system has been activated by a full blown "natural" viral infection, or by the controlled application of a vaccine. That is assuming that the person survives the natural infection. Which 96+% do... . The advantage of the vaccines , ..any of them, is that the dose is calibrated . With the natural infection, the viral load is unpredictable.
Information on the Delta variant is not that it is more or less lethal than preceding generations, but that within the infection zone it is much more transmissible.
Now if the people in Croydon had a higher than average infection rate ,death rates etc, during the earlier surges, it follows that more of them are effectively informally vaccinated than the formal numbers would suggest.
Now I gave figures previously on the hospitalised populations and this shows just how effective vaccine is...
 

guerney

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Not in my experience, alas. punctures have been "equal opportunity" for the 61 years I have been riding scooters and motorcycles
That's because you weren't the leader of a notorious motocycle gang OG! ;)
 
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jonathan.agnew

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Back again with that argument, it isn't true, not for here, not for London as a whole. The testing has been very much in the face and being thrust upon people. Anyway my area and the whole of South Croydon is affluent so not being able to afford doesn't come into it.

In any case the fact that gives the lie to your argument is the low death rate, currently zero in my area and far lower in London than in the worst suffering areas of the north where vaccination rates are near 90%. Compare that to here where under two thirds have the first jab and just over half have the two jabs, because they dont want them. That's bad of course, they should have them for their limited benefits, but it's obviously not as crucial as is being promoted.

Like Danidl you look for reasons to desperately cling to the theory the medical "experts" promote while trying to avoid the facts on the ground. At least Spiegelhalter has changed his tune twice now, being a statistician looking at facts and not a medic has probably helped him with that.

There are good reasons why our rates are so low:

Being hit so hard at the beginning of the pandemic gave us self immunity which led to much lower later rates in 2020, as the rest of the country slowly climbed inexorably upwards and overtook us.

We repeated that in January with the second wave hitting us hard at the outset, our "self booster" with the same better outcome since, regardless of the vaccines which we didn't receive until months later.

The later an area is affected, the greater the likelyhood of one's first infection being a stronger strain, so it's effects worse.

In my South Croydon area there are structural reasons why our mixing is limited to our own less affected population, such as not sharing public transport with more Covid affected areas.

And again in my area, the geography of the North Downs gives us a natural protection with our prevailing winds from the southern countryside, channeled by the contours. Turning my head to the left I look out of the window at a tree line which is the Surrey border. From there its country all the way across the North Downs, the Weald and the South Downs to the Channel. But to the north is the very steep rising escarpment of the last rise of the Downs, so northerly winds from higher density urban London pass over us at altitude prior to dispersal.

Note, none of this is down to any skill, it's all just our good luck, but that doesn't mean it hasn't got lessons to be learned that are applicable elsewhere. Some are already learnt, though not practiced enough, that outdoors is safer than indoors, country air safer than town air.
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Was thinking about this on my last run. Cognitive dissonance come to mind. compellingly. But I dont blame you. I am quite capable of going on, ad nauseam, about how underappreciated and undervalued a Bavaria 38 is. Even though I know it bangs like a beast to windward, oil cans in a blow and has a fat ugly arse that's a real liability in a big following sea.
 
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flecc

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No flecc.. you are misinterpreting the tenor of that argument.
There you go again with the superiority complex. I'm not misinterpreting or misunderstanding, you are. See below.

Now if the people in Croydon had a higher than average infection rate ,death rates etc, during the earlier surges, it follows that more of them are effectively informally vaccinated than the formal numbers would suggest.
That is what I posted !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now I gave figures previously on the hospitalised populations and this shows just how effective vaccine is...
Turn the binoculars around, our North versus London shows precisely to opposite, how ineffective the vaccines are:

North, very high vaccine rates, extremely high infection and hospitalisation rates

My London area far, far lower in all three. Infection rate well below half the national rate, deaths at low to zero every time I've posted on this month by month for several months now. All on only 58% with two jabs even now, with no-one except some of the over 12s taking them up any more.

Perhaps you haven't been following the news, or how the experts have long been expressing their puzzlement at London's good outcomes. Or perhaps you just don't want to see it.
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Danidl

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There you go again with the superiority complex. I'm not misinterpreting or misunderstanding, you are. See below.



That is what I posted !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Turn the binoculars around, our North versus London shows precisely to opposite, how ineffective the vaccines are:

North, very high vaccine rates, extremely high infection and hospitalisation rates

My London area far, far lower in all three. Infection rate well below half the national rate, deaths at low to zero every time I've posted on this month by month for several months now. All on only 58% with two jabs even now, with no-one except some of the over 12s taking them up any more.

Perhaps you haven't been following the news, or how the experts have long been expressing their puzzlement at London's good outcomes. Or perhaps you just don't want to see it.
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My interest is more focused on Ireland and the EU. The vaccines are working in Ireland . They are not designed to prevent transmission (yet), but are extremely effective in reducing hospital admission. There is at least a 40 fold reduction in hospital admission for those vaccinated. They do have some effect in reducing transmission, but their major effect is in mitigation of symptoms. Frankly I have some difficulty in believing the data from anywhere in the UK. I consider it has been overly politicised. The 28 day requirement, became obsolete by June 2020.
"That is what I posted !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" Note I wrote my post in reference to your slightly earlier posting .stating that vaccines were over hyped, not the much longer one you wrote subsequently.
 

flecc

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My interest is more focused on Ireland and the EU. The vaccines are working in Ireland . They are not designed to prevent transmission (yet), but are extremely effective in reducing hospital admission. There is at least a 40 fold reduction in hospital admission for those vaccinated. They do have some effect in reducing transmission, but their major effect is in mitigation of symptoms.
Fully agreed, I wouldn't dream of contradicting you on your own area's outcomes. And as you say, the major effect of the vaccines is in the mitigation of symptoms.

But as Spiegelhalter has now admitted and I've been saying ever since the early months of this year, being infected with Covid-19 is at least as effective as the vaccines.

But I go further on a mix of the circumstantial evidence, that prior infection is better than having the vaccine doses, giving longer lasting protection. The huge early hit we in London had right at the beginning has served us well ever since. January this year saw the second wave pick up lots of the remainder who had escaped so far, so we've all been served well since with our very low rates of suffering anything, despite extremely low vaccination rates.

But more recently we learn that the vaccine protection is declining so it's said we need boosters, but do we if they don't last? Perhaps the circulation of reinfection in a population almost all previously infected does the same job. Or perhaps the protection from getting infected and resulting ill effects, gained from a prior infection doesn't fade in the way the vaccine one does.

So as I posted yesterday:

"My risk of contracting Covid in my normal isolated life is virtually zero, but each of those two visits (for booster and 'flu vaccines) will multiply it enormously. So I'm seriously tempted to pass on both."
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Zlatan

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Was thinking about this on my last run. Cognitive dissonance come to mind. compellingly. But I dont blame you. I am quite capable of going on, ad nauseam, about how underappreciated and undervalued a Bavaria 38 is. Even though I know it bangs like a beast to windward, oil cans in a blow and has a fat ugly arse that's a real liability in a big following sea.
Bavaria 38 is an awesome cruising boat, amazes me how the get so much space in it... I, m sure its a tardis... But too much volume for heavy weather.... Sails nice tho, rather bouncy but can't have it both ways..
 
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Woosh

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In any case the fact that gives the lie to your argument is the low death rate, currently zero in my area and far lower in London than in the worst suffering areas of the north where vaccination rates are near 90%. Compare that to here where under two thirds have the first jab and just over half have the two jabs, because they dont want them. That's bad of course, they should have them for their limited benefits, but it's obviously not as crucial as is being promoted.
we agreed at least on exposure to covid, by contracting the disease or vaccination, produces antibodies and some herd immunity. If the total of those having covid and those not having covid but vaccinated reaches nearly 100% then you get what is currently observed.
My point is, the more people contracting covid, the greater herd immunity is acquired, like in India. The low take up rate on vaccination may have been made up by the greater number of people having the disease.
 
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flecc

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The low take up rate on vaccination may have been made up by the greater number of people having the disease.
Exactly the point I've been making for ages, as our position illustrates very clearly.

But if Spiegelhalter and I are right that infection is as good as vaccination and the evidence says it is, the clear inference is that the vaccines are unnecessary for about 97% of the population who don't suffer anything to speak of from catching Covid.

Ergo, ineffective. Despite all the ridiculing of a herd immunity approach last year, we have it anyway and it's working very well. For us in London a whole lot better than the vaccines up North.
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Woosh

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Exactly the point I've been making for ages, as our position illustrates very clearly.
I have never contradicted that letting nature take its course is not a solution, only it's not optimal because they block the hospitals for all of us.
 

flecc

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I have never contradicted that letting nature take its course is not a solution, only it's not optimal because they block the hospitals for all of us.
I agree you haven't, but I disagree it necessarily blocks the hospitals, we aren't seeing that here but the North with the 90%+ vaccines approach is, again illustrating vaccine ineffectiveness.

The real problem is of course is the appalling under provision of hospital and ICU beds in Britain, number 35 out of 39 in the chart below:

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Woosh

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but I disagree it necessarily blocks the hospitals,
the wiki article you linked in your post rexplained that we would need 225 CCBs per 100,000 inhabitants if we don't do anything to mitigate the disease. The AZ is said to be 74% effective, In the North where we achieve 90% vaccination rate, that leaves 1 - 0.74*0.90 = 34% requiring 225 * 0.34 = 76 CCBs per 100,000 inhabitants.
We have 6.6 CCBs per 100,000 inhabitants.
You can see why doing nothing is not going to work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
 
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flecc

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You can see why doing nothing is not going to work.
Indeed, if we didn't get it over with at the outset as I always advocated

But the threat doesn't exist in reality, without any vaccines last year the Nightingale Hospitals were not needed and have been dismantled. The existing hospitals coped with a struggle, but every business has periods like that when all the stops have to pulled out.

The word I've used repeatedly in my posts is hysteria. There was and still is hysteria about Covid itself, it's nothing remotely like as bad as was and still is hyped. There was hysteria about the possibility of no vaccines appearing, but we now show we'd have managed without, in part by more initial deaths bringing more public compliance with avoidance.

And there was ridiculous hysteria with enforcement, which wasn't necessary anyway. Such things as £100 fines, £1000 fines and £10,000 fines given to people off work and not earning, not to mention police officers also behaving like idiots.
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Woosh

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The word I've used repeatedly in my posts is hysteria.
I suppose I cling to life a bit more than when I was younger.
You may see hysteria but I see grave concerns.
Until not so long ago, probably around last June, should we need to go to hospital for any reason, we may not come out alive despite all the precautions pre vaccination.
Even now, every day 1000 go into hospital with covid, 135 die. The risk of catching covid is still substantial.
 
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flecc

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The risk of catching covid is still substantial.
That is the hysteria that has really cost us so dear in every way, the risk of suffering to any real degree from it is very low.

Remember my continuous advocacy of the Swedish relaxed voluntary approach? They didn't throw away a pro rata £50 billions to shut businesses, to pay people to stay off work, to close schools or build Nightingale hospitals etc.

Instead they stayed cool, avoided hysteria, just giving the necessary advice and leaving people to get on with it, and that resulted in a third less deaths than us pro rata.

All with even less hospital and ICU beds than us. Yes really, they are 37 in that chart, below our 35, but it didn't make them panic.
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jonathan.agnew

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That is the hysteria that has really cost us so dear in every way, the risk of suffering to any real degree from it is very low.

Remember my continuous advocacy of the Swedish relaxed voluntary approach? They didn't throw away a pro rata £50 billions to shut businesses, to pay people to stay off work, to close schools or build Nightingale hospitals etc.

Instead they stayed cool, avoided hysteria, just giving the necessary advice and leaving people to get on with it, and that resulted in a third less deaths than us pro rata.

All with even less hospital and ICU beds than us. Yes really, they are 37 in that chart, below our 35, but it didn't make them panic.
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It's not hysteria that cost us dear. It's the opposite, lack of lockdown, super spreader events. The hysteria was a function of too little too late. Croydon saw a 15% increase in infection rates over the week ofv23 october (from a relatively low base, but growing fast) and has a 58% vaccination rate (not that different from neighbouring boroughs)
 

Danidl

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Exactly the point I've been making for ages, as our position illustrates very clearly.

But if Spiegelhalter and I are right that infection is as good as vaccination and the evidence says it is, the clear inference is that the vaccines are unnecessary for about 97% of the population who don't suffer anything to speak of from catching Covid.

Ergo, ineffective. Despite all the ridiculing of a herd immunity approach last year, we have it anyway and it's working very well. For us in London a whole lot better than the vaccines up North.
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Except flecc that the supposition that 97% don't suffer is whistling past graveyard stuff... . We know that 2% + actually die , we know that some other fraction have long covid and others have pre existing conditions made much more serious. I don't have figures for these fractions. Moreover we haven't got any clue regarding the reoccurrence of something after a dormant period of 3 plus years
What we do know is that the immunity following vaccination has very little side effects ...and even the effects as noted are treatable and would probably have been serious complications had that same person got the live virus.
 
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flecc

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Croydon saw a 15% increase in infection rates over the week of 23 october (from a relatively low base, but growing fast) and has a 58% vaccination rate (not that different from neighbouring boroughs)
Exactly as I've said, London's low vaccination rates with very good outcomes. Again you pick out an isolated example of something that has been going slightly up and down like a yo yo all year.

Except SOUTH CROYDON is where I live and what you conveniently ignore despite all my explanations of the big differences.

Give it up Jonathan, your second failure to show different from what I've posted. I'm using the same government sources you are so you're doomed to fail to show a difference.
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flecc

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Except flecc that the supposition that 97% don't suffer is whistling past graveyard stuff... . We know that 2% + actually die
So what, a very high proportion of them would have died about then anyway from the conditions they already have, most notably with old age in addition.

I've already covered this in detail with all the numbers over a decade, the expected average annual deaths have accounted for much of the Covid death rate. Covid is only a part of that 2%+.

And many of the so called Covid deaths are not due to it at all. They are due to that silly mandatory 28 day law.
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