length of lockdown?

Bobajob

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 1, 2019
296
128
Cornwall
With the now acceptance that this virus will not disappear in the next few months, there seems to be expert advice that a longer lockdown looks inevitable until a vaccine has been developed. This being a possible 12months more before its tested and available for inoculation, added to the actual logistics of giving the vaccine to many millions of people could extend the lockdown even more.

How long before we get released form this awful drudgery of household jobs?
 
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
6,530
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Am more than happy doing household jobs (did a good external clean of garden shed today, and cooked).

But it is incredibly frustrating that we need to order things to be delivered (e.g. timber for garden things to grow food) but it seems to take at least two weeks.

I really want to get my feet wet in the sea!
 

BazP

Esteemed Pedelecer
Oct 8, 2017
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Sheffield
With the now acceptance that this virus will not disappear in the next few months, there seems to be expert advice that a longer lockdown looks inevitable until a vaccine has been developed. This being a possible 12months more before its tested and available for inoculation, added to the actual logistics of giving the vaccine to many millions of people could extend the lockdown even more.

How long before we get released form this awful drudgery of household jobs?
If the deaths keep going up for the next five years then the lockdown will go on for at least the next five years.
Various people on the daily question session keep asking for definitive dates on lockdown and various other things but I don’t think that any of the powers that be have a crystal ball.
Its like asking when the next train on British Rail will arrive.
 

Bobajob

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 1, 2019
296
128
Cornwall
If the deaths keep going up for the next five years then the lockdown will go on for at least the next five years.
Various people on the daily question session keep asking for definitive dates on lockdown and various other things but I don’t think that any of the powers that be have a crystal ball.
Its like asking when the next train on British Rail will arrive.
the lockdown will definitely not last five years. Five years of no industry will kill this country andI don’t think that will be allowed.
 
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Bobajob

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 1, 2019
296
128
Cornwall
Within about two months for financial reasons there will be some easing to get people back to work. Probably around July.

But some restrictions could be very long term.
.
even if we get the vaccine out and administered here it’s going to take ages.
I agree easing will have to come in with the pot luck of catching the virus for those released to work.
possibly age group easing to start with ending in all us old buggers, the vulnerable etc.
 

nigelbb

Pedelecer
Sep 19, 2019
143
134
We need to have some perspective. The chances of any of us dying from COVID-19 are only about the same as dying of any cause over the next 12 months. About 600,000 people die every year in the UK. That's around 1700-1800 deaths per day at this time of year. There may be 1000 deaths per day of people with COVID-19 but that is not the same as 1000 people dying each day of COVID-19. We don't know yet how many excess deaths there will be this year due to COVID-19 but it will be somewhere between zero & 600,000.

The danger of COVID-19 is not really to the individual. The danger is in vast numbers of very sick patients overwhelming the NHS & the effects on the economy & society of anything up to 600,000 deaths over the next month or two. The whole point of the lockdown is to reduce the rate at which the infection spreads & to keep deaths & seriously ill to a manageable level. It will not reduce the total numbers who die. Only a vaccine can prevent the disease. The NHS has so far been able to manage well & if this continues then we can start progressively easing off on the lockdown.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
6,530
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We need to have some perspective. The chances of any of us dying from COVID-19 are only about the same as dying of any cause over the next 12 months. About 600,000 people die every year in the UK. That's around 1700-1800 deaths per day at this time of year. There may be 1000 deaths per day of people with COVID-19 but that is not the same as 1000 people dying each day of COVID-19. We don't know yet how many excess deaths there will be this year due to COVID-19 but it will be somewhere between zero & 600,000.

The danger of COVID-19 is not really to the individual. The danger is in vast numbers of very sick patients overwhelming the NHS & the effects on the economy & society of anything up to 600,000 deaths over the next month or two. The whole point of the lockdown is to reduce the rate at which the infection spreads & to keep deaths & seriously ill to a manageable level. It will not reduce the total numbers who die. Only a vaccine can prevent the disease. The NHS has so far been able to manage well & if this continues then we can start progressively easing off on the lockdown.
We are still only months into covid-19 and even the simplest level of observation of its effects is very incomplete.

For those who die, obviously, the chapter has closed. For those who survive, who knows what longer term effects might be?

I offer a selection of some of the better-known effects of some viral infections on at least some people. (Yes, these are not all strictly my words – collected from various places and re-assembled to make sense.)

The film Awakenings is about what is now widely believed to be the effects of the 1915-1926 encephalitis lethargica pandemic. Post-encephalitic syndromes varied widely: sometimes they proceeded rapidly, leading to profound disability or death; sometimes very slowly; sometimes they progressed to a certain point and then stayed at this point for years or decades; and sometimes, following their initial onslaught, they remitted and disappeared. Post-encephalitic Parkinsonism is perhaps the most widely recognized of such syndromes.

Shingles is a very well-known and unpleasant viral disease which sometimes (much more often in older patients) results in Postherpetic neuralgia. Several types of pain may occur including continuous burning pain, episodes of severe shooting or electric-like pain, and a heightened sensitivity to gentle touch which would not otherwise cause pain (mechanical allodynia) or to painful stimuli (hyperalgesia).

More generally, influenza and other viruses can cause a diverse array of physical and psychological symptoms. The effects of pro-inflammatory cytokines can cause a diverse array of physical and psychological symptoms. When this happens it is referred to as sickness behaviour.

We have already seen widespread discussion of the theory that a cytokine storm is the actual cause of death in many cases. Specifically, fingers have been pointed at IL-6 and the use of IL-6 inhibitors as a treatment.

Even if the death rate falls to nothing, I’ll not be surprised if covid-19 has further fallout potentially affecting many who have survived infection, possibly even with mild symptoms.
 
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grldtnr

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 22, 2012
627
286
south east Essex
We need to have some perspective. The chances of any of us dying from COVID-19 are only about the same as dying of any cause over the next 12 months. About 600,000 people die every year in the UK. That's around 1700-1800 deaths per day at this time of year. There may be 1000 deaths per day of people with COVID-19 but that is not the same as 1000 people dying each day of COVID-19. We don't know yet how many excess deaths there will be this year due to COVID-19 but it will be somewhere between zero & 600,000.

The danger of COVID-19 is not really to the individual. The danger is in vast numbers of very sick patients overwhelming the NHS & the effects on the economy & society of anything up to 600,000 deaths over the next month or two. The whole point of the lockdown is to reduce the rate at which the infection spreads & to keep deaths & seriously ill to a manageable level. It will not reduce the total numbers who die. Only a vaccine can prevent the disease. The NHS has so far been able to manage well & if this continues then we can start progressively easing off on the lockdown.
Ah! At last speaks a word of sense, I too think this is getting well out of hand.
We are not going to live eternal lives, something is going to get us, sooner or later.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
46,520
23,354
Ah! At last speaks a word of sense, I too think this is getting well out of hand.
We are not going to live eternal lives, something is going to get us, sooner or later.
Indeed, and it's especially true the for the vulnerable elderly who are going to go soon anyway.

I'm 84, what does it matter if I go this year or in a few years time? I'm not going to miss much since I've had a life already. At my age I'm not going to be jet skiing in the Bahamas or scuba diving in the Carribean, I'll just be wearing out another pair of slippers.
.
 

sjpt

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 8, 2018
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Indeed, and it's especially true the for the vulnerable elderly who are going to go soon anyway.

I'm 84, what does it matter if I go this year or in a few years time? I'm not going to miss much since I've had a life already. At my age I'm not going to be jet skiing in the Bahamas or scuba diving in the Carribean, I'll just be wearing out another pair of slippers.
.
I hope you'll be enjoying your drive to a nearby quiet spot and a walk from there for some time to come.
 

RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
1,496
1,475
It's very notable that the situation we all find ourselves in is creating conditions that normally just would not occur. Analysing it and viewing what's happening from afar it's clear to me at least many if not most are either by accident, ignorance, lack of clear instruction or whatever are actually exacerbating the bad position we all find ourselves in.

An example: This morning on a Sky TV news program an item was aired about what one typical suburban street was doing to brighten things up, plus keep the kids amused into the bargain.
Adults were occupying their front gardens organizing things while children of all ages ran around pinning up rainbow drawings, laughing joking and having great time, what a good idea...but is it ?
Ok, so let's just sit back and analyse it for a moment shall we. Adults would normally sit in their back gardens to enjoy the nice weather in privacy not out in the street so now it's a case of 'hey look at us' let's get the media involved, and up turns Sky complete with an interviewer, cameraman and sound technician to spread things nicely.
Children at play having great fun, but hang on a minute....who are all these kids ? do they all live in one small street ? do the same dozen youngsters of varying ages normally mix together en masse, or did the word go out Sky was on it's way....now let's all go back indoors and watch ourselves on the box spreading the pox about to all in sundry.

Why am I sounding off? because while I watched that news item I could hear in distance first one then a little latera second ambulance almost certainly collecting more victims to deliver to already over crowded hospitals.
 

Chainring

Esteemed Pedelecer
Apr 24, 2013
283
153
It's very notable that the situation we all find ourselves in is creating conditions that normally just would not occur. Analysing it and viewing what's happening from afar it's clear to me at least many if not most are either by accident, ignorance, lack of clear instruction or whatever are actually exacerbating the bad position we all find ourselves in.

An example: This morning on a Sky TV news program an item was aired about what one typical suburban street was doing to brighten things up, plus keep the kids amused into the bargain.
Adults were occupying their front gardens organizing things while children of all ages ran around pinning up rainbow drawings, laughing joking and having great time, what a good idea...but is it ?
Ok, so let's just sit back and analyse it for a moment shall we. Adults would normally sit in their back gardens to enjoy the nice weather in privacy not out in the street so now it's a case of 'hey look at us' let's get the media involved, and up turns Sky complete with an interviewer, cameraman and sound technician to spread things nicely.
Children at play having great fun, but hang on a minute....who are all these kids ? do they all live in one small street ? do the same dozen youngsters of varying ages normally mix together en masse, or did the word go out Sky was on it's way....now let's all go back indoors and watch ourselves on the box spreading the pox about to all in sundry.

Why am I sounding off? because while I watched that news item I could hear in distance first one then a little latera second ambulance almost certainly collecting more victims to deliver to already over crowded hospitals.
My response to this is, DON'T watch the TV. Most of it is bullsh*t (or flannel, as my dad used to say) and intended to sway your mind. The siren you heard in the background was probably for a cat stuck up a tree. I suggest viewing Last of the Summer Wine on the Daily Motion channel - it's a lot less stressful.
 
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RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
1,496
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My response to this is, DON'T watch the TV. Most of it is bullsh*t (or flannel, as my dad used to say) and intended to sway your mind. The siren you heard in the background was probably for a cat stuck up a tree. I suggest viewing Last of the Summer Wine on the Daily Motion channel - it's a lot less stressful.
Absolutely, I mean what is lockdown anyway does anyone really know or care ? I've just watched a video on You Tube of a chap I follow who's a collector. Full lockdown here he said but I still have to go to work of course, so in reality he's not locked down.
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
14,989
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Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
add to that list: all those who wait for the DWP and small businesses who have to close the shutters on their premises.
 

RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
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I know all about hard up, I've been on the dole too...until I was kicked off of course. Lived on beans as a kid disabled mum with ms to look after. I have a 0% tolerance level for the homeless and poor because unlike me their's is a lifestyle choice. I have relatives who work with homeless and disadvantaged people, in a modern society like ours it's allowed to happen for a reason.
 

soundwave

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May 23, 2015
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kicked off how lol was you a bad sheep :p
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
14,989
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I have a 0% tolerance level for the homeless and poor because unlike me their's is a lifestyle choice.
some people are made of tougher stuff than others. Would you be where you are now if you had dyslexia, a criminal record or a disability for example?
 
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RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
1,496
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some people are made of tougher stuff than others. Would you be where you are now if you had dyslexia, a criminal record or a disability for example?
I can't read though which is a problem because every time I write something I can't read what I've just written.
 

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