Brexit, for once some facts.

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Completely off topic. Is 50 Cycles still knocking out Ebikes? I was looking on ebay to see if I could find a Kalkhoff Pro-Connect Disc 8 frame for a fiver. There’s a bloke in Loughborough called CycleMan 50 selling a complete bike Disc 8, but he wants close to a bag of sand for it. Looking at his other treasures, it mainly seems to consist of junk such as desks, display stands, and unboxed low end bike components.

I had my Kalkhoff from Loughborough many years ago. I wondered if CycleMan 50 was the same person.

Edit: there seems to be a company in Loughborough called 50 Electric Bikes. Could be the old 50 Cycles.
Go rash Jesus, splash the cash, get the bag of sand and do the trade. Life's too short, no pockets in shrouds, for sand or cash.
 

sjpt

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Jun 8, 2018
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I am noting that our local shops have a lot more Belgian , Dutch even French goods , than last year. This offsets the general reduction in UK based stuff. ...
Ah, another Brexit success.
 

Jesus H Christ

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Dec 31, 2020
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Go rash Jesus, splash the cash, get the bag of sand and do the trade. Life's too short, no pockets in shrouds, for sand or cash.
I know what you mean, but strangely I’d get far more pleasure from buying an old frame and transferring the bits from my bike onto it than dropping 3K on a new bike. I love my 13 year old Pro Connect, it’s a fantastic bike, far better in my opinion than what’s available today. The Alfine 8 speed plus disc brakes would make it an even better work horse / utility hack.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Dementia Joe seems to be having another episode. He’s threatening to make yesterday’s Afghanistan bombers pay for their actions.
In fairness he can act since they were ISIS, and no doubt his intelligence people have informed him of the following.

The Taliban hate the Afghani ISIS and fight them in Afghanistan, so their national ISIS are confined to living in a small Afghani province on the edge of Pakistan. That makes it easy for the Americans to attack them, either on land from Pakistan, by drones, or by cruise missiles in a shock and awe attack. The Taliban would be delighted for any of those to happen, so it could be a good political move.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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i wasn't prying...
Of course. I was commenting from a sociological point of view, in this country I'm far from alone in avoidance of marriage. Nearly a third of all households are single, the whole lifespan divorce rate is 50% and only that low due to so many simply living together so their numerous separations don't get recorded.

I find the subject interesting since it's such a massive societal change in a very short space of time, following thousands of years of marriage being a near universal institution. I don't think the implications for social stability are fully appreciated yet.
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Of course. I was commenting from a sociological point of view, in this country I'm far from alone in avoidance of marriage. Nearly a third of all households are single, the whole lifespan divorce rate is 50% and only that low due to so many simply living together so their numerous separations don't get recorded.

I find the subject interesting since it's such a massive societal change in a very short space of time, following thousands of years of marriage being a near universal institution. I don't think the implications for social stability are fully appreciated yet.
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Don't think marriage was ever the natural state of things, more society, church and peer pressure striving to control us all. Sort of defies natural selection. Dominant healthy males would have moved on pre history. Instead they stay at home to keep her indoors happy content and fat. (hope dearly beloved doesn't read this)
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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I know what you mean, but strangely I’d get far more pleasure from buying an old frame and transferring the bits from my bike onto it than dropping 3K on a new bike. I love my 13 year old Pro Connect, it’s a fantastic bike, far better in my opinion than what’s available today. The Alfine 8 speed plus disc brakes would make it an even better work horse / utility hack.
I know what you mean. Thing is though over years I, ve wasted hours and hours in garage trying to compete with Ford, Haibike, Starboard and others. In many respects we just can't. If you enjoy it, great but generally the output from garages rarely competes with big manufacturers on nearly all items. You wouldn't try and build a hoover would you? (but that's from someone who has built cars, motorbikes, windsurf boards, ebikes even considered a gyro copter.. But that could end badly with the tiniest of "another beer at wrong time" during build.??
I, ll buy another Haibike when time is right.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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30,416
Don't think marriage was ever the natural state of things, more society, church and peer pressure striving to control us all.
Although there's truth in this, we have evidence going back long before those, as much as 800,000 years ago of living in single family groups when the population was of course far tinier than it is now. There's so many natural advantages in that with the traditional division of labour, and we live with the evolutionary consequences still very evident in the different natures of men and women to this day.
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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I know what you mean. Thing is though over years I, ve wasted hours and hours in garage trying to compete with Ford, Haibike, Starboard and others. In many respects we just can't. If you enjoy it, great but generally the output from garages rarely competes with big manufacturers on nearly all items. You wouldn't try and build a hoover would you? (but that's from someone who has built cars, motorbikes, windsurf boards, ebikes even considered a gyro copter.. But that could end badly with the tiniest of "another beer at wrong time" during build.??
I, ll buy another Haibike when time is right.
What happened to the submarine?
My goodness, how long ago was that?
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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What happened to the submarine?
My goodness, how long ago was that?
Yep, that actually works well.. Ended up with a cordless drill motor and speed controller magnetic Reed switch, ebike battery all housed in an extended (bought) housing. (extended with sewerage pipe).. I, d forgotten that... Should have bought one. (had to weight it with diving weights, I, d increased its bouyancy. Built a boat...
 
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POLLY

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Aug 10, 2016
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No... but the problem is that the 90% who have not got covid yet are all susceptible, even if partially vaccinated and even if fully vaccinated. Moreover even the 10% who have previously been infected are not guaranteed immunity. The Delta variant carries a punch.
The only figure we can both agree on is that the 2% who have died are immune from dying again. You might recall that I have been watching that figure closely since April 2020 , and seen it steadily drop from a then ≥ 10% towards an asymptotic 3% , and now with better hospital management getting down to 2% is an achievement. A real concern should be what happens when hospital resources get stretched. That crunch is likely within the next month with Schools back, Traffic building up, poorer weather
B.S
 
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Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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Although there's truth in this, we have evidence going back long before those, as much as 800,000 years ago of living in single family groups when the population was of course far tinier than it is now. There's so many natural advantages in that with the traditional division of labour, and we live with the evolutionary consequences still very evident in the different natures of men and women to this day.
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I agree flecc.. and ironically enough,it is the existence of untreatable disease which makes marriage a natural fit.
 
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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Yep, that actually works well.. Ended up with a cordless drill motor and speed controller magnetic Reed switch, ebike battery all housed in an extended (bought) housing. (extended with sewerage pipe).. I, d forgotten that... Should have bought one. (had to weight it with diving weights, I, d increased its bouyancy. Built a boat...
any pictures?
 

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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This morning's happy news:

Delta variant doubles risk of hospitalisation, new study finds
Outbreak of Delta Covid cases likely to put strain on health services in areas with low vaccination rates, experts say
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/27/delta-covid-variant-doubles-risk-hospitalisation-new-study-finds

The other day, I mentioned a double-vaccinated relative now in hospital. She has worsened and is on continuous oxygen and has been cannulated. From a personal point of view I still haven't quite got my head around patients have such ability to communicate thanks to texts and email, etc.

I have had two minor stays in hospital. Both many years ago, abroad, and no patient phones available.
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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This morning's happy news:

Delta variant doubles risk of hospitalisation, new study finds
Outbreak of Delta Covid cases likely to put strain on health services in areas with low vaccination rates, experts say
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/27/delta-covid-variant-doubles-risk-hospitalisation-new-study-finds

The other day, I mentioned a double-vaccinated relative now in hospital. She has worsened and is on continuous oxygen and has been cannulated. From a personal point of view I still haven't quite got my head around patients have such ability to communicate thanks to texts and email, etc.

I have had two minor stays in hospital. Both many years ago, abroad, and no patient phones available.
I hope she recovers. I was doing some mental arithmetic regarding this Delta variant, and the conclusion is worrying. When the original or Wuhan variant emerged, the general advice was that any 15 minute encounter between two unmasked persons, one infected ,the other not, at a distance of less than 1 metre carried a notifiable risk of infection,and of course all those pinging apps etc were based on that model. Well since Delta is 1200 times more productive, that encounter time is now a SECOND. And since vaccination gives about around a ten fold protection bonus, . 10 seconds for any infection or 2 minutes for a serious one
 
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Outbreak of Delta Covid cases likely to put strain on health services in areas with low vaccination rates, experts say
Once again the experts are getting this wrong, I'm frankly getting sick of them and their false predictions.

I've posted a couple of times a while ago about how little we are suffering here and yesterday's national news brought support for what I've been saying. It was announced that London was one of the only four areas where Covid isn't increasing, despite the Delta variant. And in my large London Borough of Croydon, London's second largest, we are doing even better. And that is not due to a lower testing rate as someone suggested last time, our testing rate is similar and our death rate currently zero.

Yet completely contradictory to what the experts are saying, our vaccination rates are the opposite, lower in London and far lower in Croydon, still 20 points lower just as I've reported previously so that is also consistent. Here's the current vaccination dose ratios in round numbers:

National: First 88%, Second 78%

London: First 82%, Second 70%

Croydon: First 67%, Second 58%

Yet London's Covid rates not rising and Croydon's still falling.

So why are we not suffering in the predicted way?

I gave part of the answer right at the beginning of the pandemic when London was suffering 2.5 times the rate as the rest of the country and Croydon the highest of all in London. I said it would benefit us later, and it did, since as the rest of the country started to catch up with us, our rates were falling, both London and Croydon.

Against huge opposition, my mantra throughout since then has been, since we can't stop it, lets get it over with more quickly. Not herd immunity, that doesn't exist, just reduced vulnerability through prior infection.

My explanation as to why we are suffering so much less from Delta when all around us are, despite our very low vaccination rates, is twofold:

First is that the very high earlier infection rates with far less virulent strains has given us some protection against the Delta's high infectivity.

Second that the vaccines protective benefits have been greatly exaggerated, as the current national Delta spread shows, against their high national vaccination rates.
.
 
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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I hope she recovers. I was doing some mental arithmetic regarding this Delta variant, and the conclusion is worrying. When the original or Wuhan variant emerged, the general advice was that any 15 minute encounter between two unmasked persons, one infected ,the other not, at a distance of less than 1 metre carried a notifiable risk of infection,and of course all those pinging apps etc were based on that model. Well since Delta is 1200 times more productive, that encounter time is now a SECOND. And since vaccination gives about around a ten fold protection bonus, . 10 seconds for any infection or 2 minutes for a serious one
Yes, you are correct Danidl, consequently government are introducing a new distance of 2.4km for social distancing, which should see the original realistic time(15 mins) still been a safe one.. In exceptional circumstances 1.2km for 10 mins should be OK.
 

jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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Once again the experts are getting this wrong, I'm frankly getting sick of them and their false predictions.

I've posted a couple of times a while ago about how little we are suffering here and yesterday's national news brought support for what I've been saying. It was announced that London was one of the only four areas where Covid isn't increasing, despite the Delta variant. And in my large London Borough of Croydon, London's second largest, we are doing even better. And that is not due to a lower testing rate as someone suggested last time, our testing rate is similar and our death rate currently zero.

Yet completely contradictory to what the experts are saying, our vaccination rates are the opposite, lower in London and far lower in Croydon, still 20 points lower just as I've reported previously so that is also consistent. Here's the current vaccination dose ratios in round numbers:

National: First 88%, Second 78%

London: First 82%, Second 70%

Croydon: First 67%, Second 58%

Yet London's Covid rates not rising and Croydon's still falling.

So why are we not suffering in the predicted way?

I gave part of the answer right at the beginning of the pandemic when London was suffering 2.5 times the rate as the rest of the country and Croydon the highest of all in London. I said it would benefit us later, and it did, since as the rest of the country started to catch up with us, our rates were falling, both London and Croydon.

Against huge opposition, my mantra throughout since then has been, since we can't stop it, lets get it over with more quickly. Not herd immunity, that doesn't exist, just reduced vulnerability through prior infection.

My explanation as to why we are suffering so much less from Delta when all around us are, despite our very low vaccination rates, is twofold:

First is that the very high earlier infection rates with far less virulent strains has given us some protection against the Delta's high infectivity.

Second that the vaccines protective benefits have been greatly exaggerated, as the current national Delta spread shows, against their high national vaccination rates.
.
Sorry flecc I have to respond to that. What you say is untrue. And dangerously misleading. Previous infection with covid - more so with Kent variant - gives poor to no protection after six months against delta variant.
 
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