Leaving the EU

[Lancslass]

We will have done huge damage to our international reputation, by making it clear that no-one can trust any agreement we make with others.


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Sounds a bit like the EU to me (or was I imagining the Greek crisis?)

 

[trex]

..
Surely if we stop these spongers from coming here and hence reduce our welfare bill, wouldn't that be looked at favourably by credit rating agencies? I thought that a well a aged welfare budget was a positive in the eyes of these organisations.

simplest way is to introduce forced labour for all JSA claimants.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I find the prospect of the UK leaving the EU and Donald Trump becoming US president rather scary to say the least, add to that the Syrian conflict, refugee crisis etc., and I wonder if we the potential for a perfect storm?

Add to that,and very relevant to us e-bikers,nobody really knows the extent of debts in China....the recent programme by Robert Peston of that ghost town in the north with 30 storey apartment blocks,a new container port and massive state owned factories all part built but not occupied cannot be good. The Chinese are natural addicted gamblers,there are millions of middle managers who are heavily indebted to the Shanghai stock exchange,all financed on margin calls,the recent stock exchange fall has left many in difficult finances.
KudosDave

 

[Cyclezee]

If the UK does vote to leave, Scotland will almost certainly want another independence referendum and my guess is that this time the yes vote leave would win.
The question is when would be a good time to abandon the sinking ship and head north of the border.

 

[gray198]

No, it's about reliability. Walking out on the numerous treaties we've signed up to with the EU would have a terrible international effect and that's nothing to do with any countries "bleeding us".

It's the countries we need to sign trade deals with if we walk out of Europe that we need to trust us for such deals. And the EU wouldn't sign us up to EFTA if we walk out of the EU without notice. Don't forget that half our exports go to the EU but only a small fraction of the EU's exports go to the UK, so they can hold out as long as they like and insist we serve our notice.

Also we have to continuously borrow to service our national debt since we are in negative balance. After welshing on the EU agreement our rating would be sharply marked down and lenders would insist of the higher interest rates incurred as a result, making our debt position worse.

That's the system, and the international community are no more going to change it for us than the EU were going to drastically change EU rules to suit us.
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Flecc while I have great respect for your knowledge in these matters and cannot really dispute what you say I think that 90% of the population will not be aware of the technical details. I believe that the vote will be decided by people who have lost their jobs to migrant labour, or who cannot get a school place, or their children cannot get a house, or who see the NHS being overun or who believe that we no longer run our country and have no control of our borders. That I think is where the vote will be decided. I seem to remember when we opened up our country to Poland Tony Blair as well as getting the figures totally wrong said they would not take our jobs. What a joke that was.

 

[D C]

The question is when would be a good time to abandon the sinking ship and head north of the border.

When the oil price goes back up
Dave.

 

[flecc]

Flecc while I have great respect for your knowledge in these matters and cannot really dispute what you say I think that 90% of the population will not be aware of the technical details. I believe that the vote will be decided by people who have lost their jobs to migrant labour, or who cannot get a school place, or their children cannot get a house, or who see the NHS being overun or who believe that we no longer run our country and have no control of our borders. That I think is where the vote will be decided. I seem to remember when we opened up our country to Poland Tony Blair as well as getting the figures totally wrong said they would not take our jobs. What a joke that was.

I totally agree. I'm only giving my opinions, not in any way a judgement on what others will vote on. Most will vote on very limited issues without knowing all the implications of their choice.

The price of democracy.
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[flecc]

But that's simply not true. There are 11 pages in this thread and a goodly portion of the threads argue for leaving. Do you really perceive all those opinions to comprise just 'rage and fume'? Whether you agree or not, I find it quite amazing that you (and others before you) hold that opinion about all those who have given their time to argue sensibly and logically about leaving.

I've seen very few sensible and logical arguments for leaving, mostly just unproven opinions of possible advantages or obviously false claims.

As said, I'm open to hear of sufficient real advantages to change my opinion, but what I've seen so far falls very well short.
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[flecc]

Sounds a bit like the EU to me (or was I imagining the Greek crisis?)

I don't even begin to understand this comment. I'm unaware the EU has in any way breached an agreement with Greece. The Greeks have brought the crisis upon themselves and no-one else is to blame.
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[robert44]

I totally agree. I'm only giving my opinions, not in any way a judgement on what others will vote on. Most will vote on very limited issues without knowing all the implications of their choice.

The price of democracy.
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Is it your opinion or is it a judgement on your part that "Most will vote on very limited issues without knowing all the implications of their choice"?
If you are not included in this majority, perhaps you could assist the less well informed?

"The price of democracy" never included the unelected EU.

 

[flecc]

Is it your opinion or is it a judgement on your part that "Most will vote on very limited issues without knowing all the implications of their choice"?
If you are not included in this majority, perhaps you could assist the less well informed?

It's my opinion based on the statements of so many showing very incomplete knowledge of the issues. As I'm sure you appreciate, it's too vast and complex a subject for any one person to have an entire knowledge of what is involved. It appears to me that most don't even make an effort, satisfying themselves by just recycling oft repeated media statements.

"The price of democracy" never included the unelected EU.

Not true, our elected democratic parliament decided to join the EU and two other elected democratic parliaments since, including the present one, have given us a choice of remaining or leaving.

In addition, the EU Commission is answerable to the elected European Parliament.

Democracy has many shapes, and most including ours aren't truly democratic anyway. They are elected dictatorships.
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[trex]

Most will vote on very limited issues

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including myself.

 

[Cyclezee]

When the oil price goes back up
Dave.

and it will sooner or later

 

[trex]

....
The Chinese are natural addicted gamblers,there are millions of middle managers who are heavily indebted to the Shanghai stock exchange,all financed on margin calls,the recent stock exchange fall has left many in difficult finances.
KudosDave

most of them are retail customers.
the Chinese stock market went up crazily two years ago. Current turmoil is a necessary market correction, the Shanghai index is back roughly where it was a year ago.
The winners are usually western banks shorting whenever they have a chance.

 

[trex]

and it will sooner or later

probably after I am dead.

 

[trex]

I've seen very few sensible and logical arguments for leaving, mostly just unproven opinions of possible advantages or obviously false claims.
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both sides use scaremongering tactics. At the end, it will come down to the age and jobs of the voters. If you are younger than 50 or have a well paid job, you are more likely to vote to stay in.
We have two grown up children, both have jobs that are intimately connected to the EU. It's not hard to guess which side they will vote for.

 

[flecc]

both sides use scaremongering tactics.

Indeed, a repeat of the Scottish referendum tactics.

However, I see more facts coming from the pro EU side and far more emotion from the anti EU side.
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[Cyclezee]

probably after I am dead.

There is already evidence that oil prices will start to rise in the next few months.
Both Saudi Arabia and Iran are almost certainly going to cut back production, US shale oil production has fallen considerably and price of Brent crude has started to rise.

Live long and prosper

 

[trex]

beam me up scotty...

Scotland would need oil price at over $100 to stand still if becoming independent.
It's not going to happen soon.

 

[flecc]

There is already evidence that oil prices will start to rise in the next few months.
Both Saudi Arabia and Iran are almost certainly going to cut back production, US shale oil production has fallen considerably and price of Brent crude has started to rise.

Live long and prosper

I'm not so confident about that. Iran if anything will increase it's production despite the low prices, since they politically need the income to improve the lot of their citizens after the long period of sanctions.

And there is the real threat of further recession in many countries, meaning a further drop in demand holding down prices.
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