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I doubt that segregating the vaccinated and unvaccinated would work, as long as vaccines can't stop vaccinated people from catching covid. The virus will mutate naturally among the vaccinated to evade vaccines. The main danger comes from new variants issued from recombinations, such as HIV +...

Agreed. I have my doubts about vaccine efficacy as soon as the Pfizer phase 3 trial results were out (November 2019). They pre-sold an awful lot of doses for a high price on very flimsy evidence.

I can partially agree with you on this. The available statistics on Covid deaths show such a wide difference in ASR(Age Specific Rate, deaths per 100,000 people) that passive mitigation won't explain enough. Most of those deaths are in the 80+ group (yours, 80% of the total) plus a smaller...

=950 * (100% /1000 sample size) =95% is the absolute risk reduction. For vaccines, you use relative risk reduction. You run a 3 month trial with 1000 people given a placebo and 1000 given your vaccine. If 10 people in the vaccinated group and 30 people in the unvaccinated group got Covid in...

I reckon our government would like to divert public attention from the question 'Is he alright, our PM?' BJ lurches from one disaster to the next, his only success was the vaccine.

I read somewhere that the initial samples was taken from a patient being treated for HIV in SA. The spread is centered in Tshwane, Gauteng province, North of Johannesburg. It's still early days but the reaction from our government seems a bit alarmist. Stopping some direct flights: OK, put some...

it's Boris Johnson's fault. We want something from the French, the least we must do is to ask politely. Not only we keep repeating that we are paying the French police £54 million to police the coast while we have still not paid a penny, BJ's letter to Macron is undiplomatic to say the least...

Those people know the risk better than anyone of us and they will still take it. The politics of 'pushbacks' is just as popular in the EU as in the UK. It is illegal under international laws. Blaming the traffikers is our government cop-out. We can adjust a bit the pull factors in our social...

You are correct on this, 8.8 was indeed =SUM(G461:G464), Percentage of total age-group population. There was in fact only one death in week 1 in the double dose, in cell E464, so the corresponding ASR for the double dose (=SUM(H461:H464 ) is practically zero. That made a strong case for the...

continued. The errors are in the later weeks, take the last week (No 38), the ASR (column H) for double dose 10-59 is only 0.2 Not 2.2 as per his plot. 24-Sep-21 38 Second dose 10-59 29 17,924,346 66.4 0.2 0.1 0.2

. =SUM(H5:H8) H is the last column. I can understand why the authors chooses the age group 10-59 to make the comparison because this group can cope without vaccines. 08-Jan-21 1 Unvaccinated 10-59 359 26,822,400 98.1 1.3 08-Jan-21 1 Unvaccinated 60-69 517 5,138,033 98.1 10.1 08-Jan-21...

there are fewer those who benefit from natural immunity as a result of prior infection (10 millions to 15 millions, 25% top) than those who benefit from vaccines (46.2 millions, 70%), so vaccines are much more important in the fight against covid. A lot of those who got immunity purely from...

I posted a graph from Wordometer showing covid deaths since the beginning. You can see the first wave peaked 12-April 20, the second 23-Jan 21, the base of the second wave is broader, that's the effect of herd immunity beginning to show. I predict that the next wave will peak before 23-Jan 22...

. this week last November (2020), average daily deaths about 500, now about 150. That why we had lockdown last Christmas. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Check the numbers and do a bit of math yourself. On week 1 (Jan) for example, the total Age Specific Rate per 100,000 of the unvaccinated group is 203.9, the total for the double dose is 8.8. week 2: unvaccinated: 6,101, vaccinated: 12.9. You will see a similar pattern weeks after weeks, the...

I downloaded the excel tables. There are two periods Jan 21-July 21 and Jan 21 to Sep 21. Here are the main points from ONS, compare them to the article and the graph that the author has concocted. quote: In England, between 2 January and 2 July 2021, there were 51,281 deaths involving...

let's stay factual and leave the merits of wikipedia out of this. Did Dr Yeadon claim that Covid was "effectively over" in October 2020? Did he claim that vaccines were unnecessary? Did he claim that mRNA vaccines contain syncytin-1?

no, he doesn't, but is he the one that wikipedia descibes as: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Yeadon

. I accept that prematured deaths (like in care homes) is a smaller issue for society compared to say school closures and furlough but the effect on routine healthcare procedures would have been far worse if we did not mitigate the infection rate.

it's difficult to say. A lot of countries have little or no vaccines and rely on passive measures to mitigate the disease. You can see typical waves in number of new cases and deaths, basically, after a big wave, there will be a big trough, showing that infections create herd immunity.