Brexit, for once some facts.

tillson

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May 29, 2008
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What's the latest forecast from BetFred, Paddypower and Foxy from Foxy Bingo? The IN campaign seem to be quoting opinion from these institutions more frequently now that the official polls signal a significant lead for leave.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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What's the latest forecast from BetFred, Paddypower and Foxy from Foxy Bingo? The IN campaign seem to be quoting opinion from these institutions more frequently now that the official polls signal a significant lead for leave.
The polls are likely to be very wrong, whichever way they've been pointing. Frankly the whole campaign and everything said about it has been a huge waste of everyone's time.

I've stopped listening to the debates on the subject and will listen to no more, since they haven't at any time been debates. On every occasion the two sides just state and restate the same tired things with no sign that either is listening to the other.

For Remain it's just the risks of leaving and the hypothetical economic cost of being out.

For Leave it's immigration, sovereignty and the hypothetical cost of being in.

For both the addition of stubborn denial of anything the other side says.

That's the whole story, so there's no point in listening to any argument again between now and the 23rd, for you will hear nothing different, just as you've heard nothing different in all the weeks so far.
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tillson

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May 29, 2008
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the BBC reported this morning that Osborne plays the tax card.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36534192
To me, that's the only argument that is effective against leave.
As if that's really going to happen. If we exit, Osborne and Cameron's backsides will be toast. Whoever takes over from them would not dare increase taxes as that would be a guaranteed election defeat. They would all be joining that shaved Honey Monster, Danny Alexander out of office.

I really think that if we do exit there will be very little change. But I still think it is worth coming out to see if it affords us any new opportunities. It is going to be tight and I can't honestly say which way I think it will go.
 

trex

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May 15, 2011
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What's the latest forecast from BetFred, Paddypower and Foxy from Foxy Bingo? The IN campaign seem to be quoting opinion from these institutions more frequently now that the official polls signal a significant lead for leave.
they are all about same:

in: 8/15
out: 6/4

probability: the swingometer moves toward remain this morning, 38% leave, 62% remain just now (was 48/52 yesterday). The Pound rose a bit.
My guess is that's due to the BBC showing Osborne and his tax card this morning.
 

trex

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May 15, 2011
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...
Whoever takes over from them would not dare increase taxes as that would be a guaranteed election defeat. They would all be joining that shaved Honey Monster, Danny Alexander out of office..
the tories are toast anyway, in or out or the EU, their split is more or less down the middle, 70% of their MPs are for in, 70% of their voters are for out. Both sides will fight to the death. Corbyn just has to sit and watch the tories commiting hara-kiri. On taxes, they don't have much choice. The balance of our current account is about the worst in the G8. We don't manufacture anything any more. We just buy, consume and pay on the never never. When the source of FDI, Chinese and Arab money, dries up which should happen within days after Brexit, we are all deep in the proverbial.

PS: the Chinese have already stopped buying posh appartments in London, waiting for price to fall.
 
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Footie

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Jun 16, 2007
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Cornwall. PL27
We have tried it, now the EU whats to change the rules and the rules don't suit us (as a democratic country), so we should leave.
I cannot believe the BS propaganda I have to watch every time the news comes on, the remain group getting 20 minutes air time while the leave get less than 5 minutes of air time.
Unbiased Government controlled news reporting at its best.
With all the threats and ravings aside, the two issues that are the most important (to me) cannot be resolved by staying in the EU.
Immigration cannot be controlled under EU laws and rules.
The EU is not democratic.
If we do leave then the government should resign, as they clearly do not support an independent UK or the will of the people.
 
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oldgroaner

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Congratulations on being incorrect on every point,but never mind, brexit will win and achieve one of two things
Nothing
Or to make matters far worse


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tillson

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My impression is that London want to remain in the EU, everywhere else wants out.
 

gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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they are all about same:

in: 8/15
out: 6/4

probability: the swingometer moves toward remain this morning, 38% leave, 62% remain just now (was 48/52 yesterday). The Pound rose a bit.
My guess is that's due to the BBC showing Osborne and his tax card this morning.
Of course whatever Osbourne threatens he has to have support from
they are all about same:

in: 8/15
out: 6/4

probability: the swingometer moves toward remain this morning, 38% leave, 62% remain just now (was 48/52 yesterday). The Pound rose a bit.
My guess is that's due to the BBC showing Osborne and his tax card this morning.
He is going to need the support of parliament to implement a new budget and it sounds like he won't get it. Still no mention of reducing foreign aid budget. Obviously prefers to target people who have worked all their lives.???
 
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tillson

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May 29, 2008
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Congratulations on being incorrect on every point,but never mind, brexit will win and achieve one of two things
Nothing
Or to make matters far worse


Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

I think he is right about immigration into the EU, both legal and illegal. If what is currently happening is your idea of being in control of a situation, then I find the prospect of you being out of control rather tantalising. A bit like when I threw a 7 Kg propane cylinder onto a bonfire just to see what would happen.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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I think he is right about immigration into the EU, both legal and illegal. If what is currently happening is your idea of being in control of a situation, then I find the prospect of you being out of control rather tantalising. A bit like when I threw a 7 Kg propane cylinder onto a bonfire just to see what would happen.
Then like him you haven't been keeping up with events, as there are controls over migrants from recently joined nations, and the EU has nothing whatever to do with illegals, and we don't have the means to stop them, do we?
Interesting that you find tossing propane cylinders on bonfires worthy of trial, presumably this morbid curiosity impels you to vote for Brexit?

Relatively speaking tossing the "Bonfire Tossing" differs from the Brexit experience in being rather less dangerous as the cylinder would require prolonged exposure to a very hot bonfire to bring about a BLEVE explosion.
As to being "in control of the situation" it was not my intent to imply that, only that inside the EU we have a voice, and outside we could well end up having to accept the concept of free movement, in order to continue trading with the EU without having any say on the matter.
But I'm sure you will not believe that can happen.
My idea of being out of control? being at the mercy of an unfettered and rabid right wing Tory Government who will put the clock back to the Victorian era,
or indeed of being hammered by a Labour one forced to make damaging decisions to keep the broken economy going because some fool wanted Brexit,
And all because their idea of Democracy is that this country should dictate it's terms over the 27 others in a Democratic Union (while at the same time calling this union undemocratic!)
In other words we will happily remain if you all do as we tell you, or we'll take our ball home and spoil your game...
Forgetting of course that they own the pitch!
 
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trex

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My impression is that London want to remain in the EU, everywhere else wants out.
the most pro EU is Edinburgh.
Other pro EU cities are: Oxford, Cambridge, Manchester, London, Bristol.

In general, the more afluent cities, the more pro EU.
People who vote out are usually people who have to compete with immigrants for jobs (not just EU immigranst, all immigrants), who can't see what the EU have done for them. Nothing to do with democracy, sovereignty or the economy.
like in this video, filmed a couple of days ago in Stoke on Trent. The boss of the pottery factory is pro EU, most of his workforce want out. It shows clearly the disconnect between voters and the labour MP (Ruth Smeeth) that they voted for. Sad really. The only way remain can get to his workforce is threatening them with higher taxes.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/brexit-will-hurt-your-city-labour-tells-core-voters-but-no-ones-listening
 
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gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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My idea of being out of control? being at the mercy of an unfettered and rabid right wing Tory Government who will put the clock back to the Victorian era,
or a communist left wing labour party run by Jezza and his mates wanting to put the clock back to the stone age!!!!
 

oldgroaner

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You clearly know as little about communism as everything else,tell me which party has been grovelling to the Chinese communists begging for money?

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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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My impression is that London want to remain in the EU, everywhere else wants out.
Not quite, it's the centre and the fringes that will be seen to have a majority vote to remain:

London
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland

The national outcome mainly depends on the balance in the rest of England outside of London.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
46,322
23,081
It's said that the worst outcome is a very close vote either way, but there's an even worse one that could cause ructions.

That is a vote to leave so close that the government refuses to act upon it, such as a difference being in single thousands.

For example, 5000 votes is only 0.01% of the UK electorate.

I cannot imagine a government making such an immense step as to leave the EU from the decision of such a minute proportion of the electorate.

The problem is that this is one sided. If the decison to leave is so minutely close to leave, the outcome is Remain. If the decision to remain is also so minutely close, the outcome will also be Remain.

I can just imagine the rows this could cause!
.
 
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gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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You clearly know as little about communism as everything else,tell me which party has been grovelling to the Chinese communists begging for money?

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just know I don't want to live under it.
 

derf

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Aug 4, 2014
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My impression is that London want to remain in the EU, everywhere else wants out.
that will make the likely breakup of the union - with scotland (and probably wales) rejoining the EU after a brexit really quite ironic, leaving London carrying the can (of delusional nirvana brexiteers have such fantasies about)
 
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