Brexit, for once some facts.

jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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Who do you believe?


Food shortages ‘permanent’ and shoppers will never again enjoy full choice of items, Britons warned

Covid and Brexit have killed off ‘just-in-time’ deliveries, says industry boss – but No 10 insists Christmas will be ‘normal’

Food shortages in supermarkets and restaurants are “permanent” and shoppers will never again enjoy a full choice of items, an industry boss has told Britons.

In an extraordinary warning, the head of the Food and Drink Federation said staff shortages – triggered by a combination of Covid and Brexit – had killed off the “just-in-time” delivery model.


“I don’t think it will work again, I think we will see we are now in for permanent shortages,” Ian Wright said.


But Downing Street rejected the claim of a broken system and, in a potential hostage to fortune, predicted the shortages will be over by the festive season.

Pressed on whether the shortages will ease to allow people to enjoy a “normal Christmas”, Boris Johnson’s spokesman told The Independent: “I believe so, yes.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/food-shortages-brexit-covid-boris-johnson-b1917763.html

I know that other than this I have seen warnings over supplies of wine, turkeys, pasta, medicines, computer-related kit and, I am sure, many other lines.
I realise it's a very petit bourgeoisie ordeal, but on the quiet my local waitrose have increasingly empty shelves of stuff I used to buy..
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
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West West Wales
I realise it's a very petit bourgeoisie ordeal, but on the quiet my local waitrose have increasingly empty shelves of stuff I used to buy..
The specific issue that has repeatedly surprised me is absolutely no milk whatsoever in Aldi. (We hardly ever buy any - but it is usually a pretty significant section and its (usual) whiteness makes it very obvious.)
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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Ireland
Contract that if you will with the Irish experience. .. we are now at 80% of the total over 12 years population ,and 90% + , of the over 16 years . ..and the percentage increases with the age cohort. This is because a consistent logical unhyped message was delivered from all our civil servants and political bods.
Even so our data is consistent with your Covid consultant ... 90% of the people in our Covid hospital wards are non vaccinated.
I fully expect that when NZ get their program underway, it's rollout will be more Irish than UK.
UPDATED today. 7Million doses administered, 90 % of all persons over 18 fully vaccinated , 92.5% partially . 16 to 18 being done at present with numbers in the mid 80% , fully vaccinated, and working the way through that cohort after the 4 week delay. 12 to 16 being done , and the uptake in forms submitted is 90% (parents have to formally consent before the jabs) , of course these are only first doses .
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,608
12,253
73
Ireland
The specific issue that has repeatedly surprised me is absolutely no milk whatsoever in Aldi. (We hardly ever buy any - but it is usually a pretty significant section and its (usual) whiteness makes it very obvious.)
I think Aldi would have been getting a lot of their milk from NI . We don't buy our Milk in Lidl or ALdi,but I have noticed that a lot of their dairy is NI. This is actually the time of the year when there should be a glut ,and beef meat also starts to drop in price. Now grass growth has been poor this summer , with the brilliant weather and low rainfall... Even my Gladioli are a month behind
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
I think Aldi would have been getting a lot of their milk from NI .
That seems possible. I know some shops are clear about their fresh milk being Welsh, but the rest just say British - which could (obviously) mean NI.

We only buy the occasional pint/litre for cooking purposes as we don't usually consume any liquid milk (e.g. coffee, tea, cereals). But some soups, mash, panna cotta, etc., do need a little.
 

jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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UPDATED today. 7Million doses administered, 90 % of all persons over 18 fully vaccinated , 92.5% partially . 16 to 18 being done at present with numbers in the mid 80% , fully vaccinated, and working the way through that cohort after the 4 week delay. 12 to 16 being done , and the uptake in forms submitted is 90% (parents have to formally consent before the jabs) , of course these are only first doses .
its old news now, but it is interesting that the new mu variant that's competing with delta is less transmissible, but more vaccine resistant than it and - curiously - highly resistant to serum treatment (as used on inpatients with covid before)
 

jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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I said it before , but this lockdown has gone on to long
Hmmm..you've been having febrile fantasies about polly too...what else to do in lockdown (other than working and running). theres something utterly irresistible about a woman who never say anything other than no
 
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jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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Running? Is your e-bike broken?
I've reached that unfortunate age where I need all the exercise I can get
Edit - speaking of things that are broken - i see starmer (predictably late and insincerely when it cannot become actual policy but may score he might think browny points with left voters) is proposing an additional landlord tax instead of rise in NI. Which frankly would have been much fairer, better for the economy (and I say that as a part time landlord)
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,789
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I've reached that unfortunate age where I need all the exercise I can get
Edit - speaking of things that are broken - i see starmer (predictably late and insincerely when it cannot become actual policy but may score he might think browny points with left voters) is proposing an additional landlord tax instead of rise in NI. Which frankly would have been much fairer, better for the economy (and I say that as a part time landlord)
Very dangerous when we already have a housing shortage. Housing investment and being a landlord has become ever more unattractive in recent years. First there was the fall in property prices following the 2008 sub prime crash and since then price inflation has been a fraction of what it was in many earlier decades.

Then there's the imposition of landlord licencing bureacracy and costs, this link shows details of those in my borough. Where flats are involved their management companies now often impose an additional annual charge to cover increased administration costs. To round off the worsening conditions there's been a huge increase in "professional" bad tenants as more and more people realise what they can get away with, such as living permanently mainly rent free by switching properties after generating long periods of arrears.

Being a property investor and landlord was great in the 1970s and '80s when property price inflation was often huge and tenants mostly honest, almost a licence to print money. But now I wouldn't touch that private housing market. Quite apart from all the newer disadvantages I've listed above, if Britain doesn't do well with Brexit, a very real possibility, we could see the population reversing into a decline that will crash the housing market prices from their present inflated level.
.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,789
30,369
I'd like to ask a general question to anyone here.
What does 'fully vaccinated' actually mean??
Currently, both first and second jabs received, as defined by the proposed vaccine passports.

If boosters arrive, that definition will change.
.
 

Jesus H Christ

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 31, 2020
1,363
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I've reached that unfortunate age where I need all the exercise I can get
Edit - speaking of things that are broken - i see starmer (predictably late and insincerely when it cannot become actual policy but may score he might think browny points with left voters) is proposing an additional landlord tax instead of rise in NI. Which frankly would have been much fairer, better for the economy (and I say that as a part time landlord)
Envy politics. Hatred of anyone who works and saves. Same old Labour. Settle in for a decade of Tory rule.
 

Jesus H Christ

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 31, 2020
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Very dangerous when we already have a housing shortage. Housing investment and being a landlord has become ever more unattractive in recent years. First there was the fall in property prices following the 2008 sub prime crash and since then price inflation has been a fraction of what it was in many earlier decades.

Then there's the imposition of landlord licencing bureacracy and costs, this link shows details of those in my borough. Where flats are involved their management companies now often impose an additional annual charge to cover increased administration costs. To round off the worsening conditions there's been a huge increase in "professional" bad tenants as more and more people realise what they can get away with, such as living permanently mainly rent free by switching properties after generating long periods of arrears.

Being a property investor and landlord was great in the 1970s and '80s when property price inflation was often huge and tenants mostly honest, almost a licence to print money. But now I wouldn't touch that private housing market. Quite apart from all the newer disadvantages I've listed above, if Britain doesn't do well with Brexit, a very real possibility, we could see the population reversing into a decline that will crash the housing market prices from their present inflated level.
.
I think it’s still ok. Definitely more pitfalls and you’ve got to be very careful. I know a couple of people who have used the + equity in one house as a deposit to buy another. Then with house price inflation, done the same thing several times over until they own five or six houses, on paper. This is massively high risks. Even a modest downward shift in house prices will cause the banks to become jittery and the whole house of cards will come crashing down.

I’ve always bought my houses outright and they are yielding good rental returns and increased value. I expect the value to dip, not sure about rents, but I’ve had them long enough to absorb a drop in price and still be in a better position than had I put the money in a bank.

I’ve not had a bad tenant yet, but I’m confident I’d have them out within a month, regardless of what crap is in the law. There are ways & means and people who’ll do you a favour;)
 
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jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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Very dangerous when we already have a housing shortage. Housing investment and being a landlord has become ever more unattractive in recent years. First there was the fall in property prices following the 2008 sub prime crash and since then price inflation has been a fraction of what it was in many earlier decades.

Then there's the imposition of landlord licencing bureacracy and costs, this link shows details of those in my borough. Where flats are involved their management companies now often impose an additional annual charge to cover increased administration costs. To round off the worsening conditions there's been a huge increase in "professional" bad tenants as more and more people realise what they can get away with, such as living permanently mainly rent free by switching properties after generating long periods of arrears.

Being a property investor and landlord was great in the 1970s and '80s when property price inflation was often huge and tenants mostly honest, almost a licence to print money. But now I wouldn't touch that private housing market. Quite apart from all the newer disadvantages I've listed above, if Britain doesn't do well with Brexit, a very real possibility, we could see the population reversing into a decline that will crash the housing market prices from their present inflated level.
.
It is a dilemma (if property crash the economy crash). But I still get 5% nett rental income on average. And it's impossible to look past the fact that property price in the uk is (for complex historical reasons I know - thatchers privatising of social housing, brown's raid on pension funds etc) hugely over inflated. And all the money younger working class spend on economically unproductive bricks and mortar do not go into the living breathing researching job creating economy
 
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jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
2,383
3,372
I think it’s still ok. Definitely more pitfalls and you’ve got to be very careful. I know a couple of people who have used the + equity in one house as a deposit to buy another. Then with house price inflation, done the same thing several times over until they own five or six houses, on paper. This is massively high risks. Even a modest downward shift in house prices will cause the banks to become jittery and the whole house of cards will come crashing down.

I’ve always bought my houses outright and they are yielding good rental returns and increased value. I expect the value to dip, not sure about rents, but I’ve had them long enough to absorb a drop in price and still be in a better position than had I put the money in a bank.

I’ve not had a bad tenant yet, but I’m confident I’d have them out within a month, regardless of what crap is in the law. There are ways & means and people who’ll do you a favour;)
Have you considered working for a living?
 
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Jesus H Christ

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 31, 2020
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Have you considered working for a living?
Yes, I worked full time for 40 years as an employee on PAYE. I invested for retirement in my mid fifties. As a trade off, I didn’t have as much surplus cash as my colleagues so couldn’t afford nice cars, but credit card bills a massive mortgage or fancy holidays. They are still working, I’m retired with more disposable income than I imagined possible.

I suppose it’s a choice of when you want to enjoy the fruits of your working life, have the enjoyment on credit whilst younger, or save it for later in life. Doing what I did isn’t without risk, as I get older, my chances of dying increase and I might die before I’ve had enough fun.
 
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jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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Yes, I worked full time for 40 years as an employee on PAYE. I invested for retirement in my mid fifties. As a trade off, I didn’t have as much surplus cash as my colleagues so couldn’t afford nice cars, but credit card bills a massive mortgage or fancy holidays. They are still working, I’m retired with more disposable income than I imagined possible.

I suppose it’s a choice of when you want to enjoy the fruits of your working life, have the enjoyment on credit whilst younger, or save it for later in life. Doing what I did isn’t without risk, as I get older, my chances of dying increase and I might die before I’ve had enough fun.
Theres a (very) difficult paradox in it, I find. I could retire now. But what would I do? Ultimately sitting on a sailboat - as Ellen MacArthur once pointed out - can be like being trapped in a studio flat in a watery desert. Not very meaningful. Saw an angry schizoaffective patient about to make a formal complaint Friday. At first dreaded it (sandwiched between an incompetent amoral layer of management and a difficult precarious treatment). But it became a very meaningful, engaged, alive experience. The difficult moral of the story, for me, is that making enough to support oneself can be more meaningful, good for oneself as much ad others, society (even if it's also a pain in the arse)
 
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