hi what price are bikes from europe going to hit in new year

 

jim

I don't know but it's looking increasingly scary Jim. The other exchange rates are also bad for us, so it seems like a thoroughly bad time to buy anything made outside this country.

 

On the basis that every cloud has a silver lining, the exchange rate effects might be somewhat offset by suppliers discounting more and more as they get increasingly desperate to rustle up some business.

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In general I think we're all in for the shock of our lives come February 2009, regardless of whether it's a household central heating repair part or an e-bike.

 

One of my suppliers, (a well run company keeping stocks light but ordering often etc., etc.,) has just frightened the life out of me. With their latest delivery received from China they've had to send all their trade customers a new price list. To stay in business, I quietly ordered from an inefficient supplier who in the past I've had issues with, because with plenty of unsold stock they've got terrific prices - although they did warn that they might have to increase prices after Christmas depending on the currency fluctuations. As I already know what the new prices roughly are, I won't be staying with them long - just long enough not to be the first in my locale to get a bad name for dear prices - everyone will be in the same boat by the time I need to place significant replenishment orders - I just don't want to be the first.

 

The public has been quite phlegmatic with all the bad news, as prices on the High Street have not affected them that much yet. It's the phoney price-war. Most shops have to order their Christmas stock many months in advance - well before the pound fell dramatically. Once the Christmas reductions and January sales are out of the way, those still in business will have to re-order - AND that's when we'll ALL feel and hear the pips squeaking, as all that replacement stock has to ordered at the new higher international prices. (On the bright side those call centres located abroad will no longer seem such a bargain to British companies, so at least those jobs should slowly head back to the UK).

 

Inefficient companies with lumpy, heavy stock-holdings will initially appear to offer a better deal. Well run companies trained to run with 'just-in-time' stock-holding will get hit the hardest first. When it comes to price increases there is no such animal as a loyal customer.

Edited December 19, 200817 yr by Danny-K

 

Once the Christmas reductions and January sales are out of the way, those still in business will have to re-order -

 

and with borrowing so restricted, many won't have the wherewithal to reorder and will go broke. I think we'll see many companies going under from February on.

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The pace of redundancies is just beginning to hot up. In my part of the private sector the thinking has been that we may have to trim down to anticipate a poor first quarter. So the industry has begun shedding at the 10% level and most are beginning to leave now or at the end of the year

 

Most redundancies take over a month to work through given legal consultation requirements. If the market looks bad in February, there will be another wave generated then which will come out as unemployed in April - further depressing confidence and spending power.

 

I reckon a lot of 2009 will be pretty depressed. It is not going to be a climate to encourage many entrepreneurs or risk taking.

 

John

I remember being one of the 3 million unemployed in the late 80’s. You had to be really quick if you lost your job to get back into another one. With 15 to 30 applicants for each job - if you weren’t the most highly qualified applicant you didn’t stand a "snowballs chance in hell" of getting the job.

When I lost my job my circumstances conspired against me and it was almost three years before I got solid employment again and then that was only on a 6 monthly contract.

It’s a real soul destroyer being unemployed, wanting to work but there’s no jobs going anywhere, doing anything. Believe me, trying to survive on income support is hell on earth

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Edited December 19, 200817 yr by Footie