Does anyone else play around with the big AI language models? I am more and more impressed at their ability to understand exactly what you are saying and respond to it in a nuanced way. Over only a few months, I can see real progress in the google one - I think it is now called Gemini - it used to be called 'Bard' for some reason when I first tried it last year.

 

Here is a dialogue I just had with it over the last twenty minutes. My questions have a small human avatar next to them and the Bot has a sort of star. It truncates my questions which are quite long, but the 'V' sign on the wright at the end, will reveal them if you click it.

 

Conversation on extra terrestrial life and other things:

 

https://gemini.google.com/share/ecc77a853e8c

No - It's not real. It is a conspiracy. It is caused by cloud seeding. Tell me anything but that it is the result of rising temperatures.... I don't want to hear anything about that......

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qlpp5gxvo

 

Valencia Spain has a year's worth of rain in eight hours.

 

[ATTACH type=full" alt="60451]60451[/ATTACH]

 

Meteorologists believe the warming of the Mediterranean, which increases water evaporation, plays a key role in making torrential rains more severe.

 

[ATTACH type=full" alt="60452]60452[/ATTACH]

 

[ATTACH type=full" alt="60453]60453[/ATTACH]

A commenter pointed out that 1. the ground is baked so hard they have to use bulldozers with blades to break it up, not tractors. Hence no absorption, just runoff to low areas. 2. Planning 'anomalies' allow building in Floodplains, with the inevitable result. 3. Desertification is taking place behind the Costas coast.

Hailstones? Isn't it supposed to be too "warming" for those?

 

RIP for those lost, and my sympathies for survivors.

Does anyone else play around with the big AI language models? I am more and more impressed at their ability to understand exactly what you are saying and respond to it in a nuanced way. Over only a few months, I can see real progress in the google one - I think it is now called Gemini - it used to be called 'Bard' for some reason when I first tried it last year.

 

Here is a dialogue I just had with it over the last twenty minutes. My questions have a small human avatar next to them and the Bot has a sort of star. It truncates my questions which are quite long, but the 'V' sign on the wright at the end, will reveal them if you click it.

 

Conversation on extra terrestrial life and other things:

 

https://gemini.google.com/share/ecc77a853e8c

I do a fair bit of work with LLMs.

OpenAI is facing a lot of court cases for copyright infringements and its current models still fail on many reasoning tests.

It's rumoured that the next version of OpenAI model is going to solve two of the most oft cited weaknesses of the current models: training data and logical reasoning. Training data will be synthetic, that is current models will train the next models and no more logical mistakes, even if your prompt contains ambiguities. What it does is before it produces the answer, it writes a short piece of Python code to test that it understands your prompt then use the code to produce the answer.

Edited October 31, 20241 yr by Woosh

I tried identical prompt questions with ChatGpt and I think I got rather better responses.

 

https://chatgpt.com/share/67235c36-b81c-8001-a968-5f7f8affeed2

 

I always thought the ChatGpt one was better, but this confirms it. The interface is better too. The answers are more targeted exactly at what I asked rather than giving a wikipedia type paragraph.

I am impressed that the model actually gets inferences. Take this example.

 

"The problem of simultaneous transmission and reception is a key one. Obviously, we must factor in the signal travel time, but also there may easily have been signals sent hundred of years ago which passed by earth during the Middle Ages or before.

ChatGPT said:

 

Exactly. The timing problem adds another layer of complexity to the Fermi Paradox. Even if intelligent beings did attempt interstellar communication, signals sent our way centuries or millennia ago could have simply missed us or arrived during periods when humanity lacked the technology or interest to detect them."

 

I didn't actually say that the reason the signals passed by un-read was because people in the Middle Ages did not have the technology. The model worked that out for itself.

I do a fair bit of work with LLMs.

OpenAI is facing a lot of court cases for copyright infringements and its current models still fail on many reasoning tests.

It's rumoured that the next version of OpenAI model is going to solve two of the most oft cited weaknesses of the current models: training data and logical reasoning. Training data will be synthetic, that is current models will train the next models and no more logical mistakes, even if your prompt contains ambiguities. What it does is before it produces the answer, it writes a short piece of Python code to test that it understands your prompt then use the code to produce the answer.

 

What do you use it for?

 

One of the businesses owned by my eldest son does search engine optimisation. This involves writing content and setting up links. He used to employ a number of content writers but now uses ChatGpt to generate much of the written content they need to generate. They still proof read it with human intervention, but employ fewer people now because the chatbots can generate appropriate text very quickly.

 

 

EDIT: sorry - you had I think edited the post between my reading it and responding.

 

Yes - the court cases are a problem but I doubt they will succeed. How is the chatbot reading a website and then using the content any different to me reading the content, thinking about it and then expressing my new understanding?

 

As long as the chatbot does not regurgitate exactly the same words it is not plagiarism.

Clouds , fog and mist are suspended particles of water in the air. Water vapour is water in it's gaseous state ( and is invisible)

But clouds still have a "warming" effect for the land underneath. Hence deserts with clear skies can freeze at night.

Let's compare cloudy Dublin..

With clear sky Dubai..

The clear sky allows the sun to warm Dubai more during the day, but also let's the temp drop 10degC at night, compared to Dublins 3degC drop.

 

10degC rise in 1 day! If we "model" that for a year, the temp will have risen 3,650degC by 2025!

It doesn't, why not? sun goes up, sun goes down, planet goes around and around.

Sun + Planet + rotation + Clouds + Water Vapour = We don't all freeze at -15degC average.

Isn't it great to have our self-regulating planetary climate?

As long as the chatbot does not reproduce the exact same content from a specific website there can be no court case success.

 

Every human that ever lived who wrote something did so as a result of his education and training on other people's ideas. VERY few of us come up with anything entirely unique and original. We all stand on the shoulders of our ancestors and teachers (which includes the writers of books and manuals). That is exactly what LLMs do.

 

They must however be setup to avoid directly reproducing the same format as the training data.

 

That might be harder in matters of code writing applications than with human type writing and speech, because the syntax limitations of code are more rigorous than the medium we are using on here. There are thousands of ways to write the identical paragraph in English. Not so perhaps in computer code (though I have VERY little experience of that). This is how it seems to me anyway.

the problem is those who don't believe global warming happens don't believe climate scientists.

"Believe"! I thought these "sceance-tists" used the 'Scientific Method' to find Proof?

"We have to reduce the rapid growth of emissions to give time to scientists to develop more sustainable solutions."

Err, don't you mean time to submit more grant applications? €£$€£$ hehe, Kerching

But clouds still have a "warming" effect for the land underneath. Hence deserts with clear skies can freeze at night.

Let's compare cloudy Dublin..

[ATTACH=full]60469[/ATTACH]

With clear sky Dubai..

[ATTACH=full]60470[/ATTACH]

The clear sky allows the sun to warm Dubai more during the day, but also let's the temp drop 10degC at night, compared to Dublins 3degC drop.

 

10degC rise in 1 day! If we "model" that for a year, the temp will have risen 3,650degC by 2025!

It doesn't, why not? sun goes up, sun goes down, planet goes around and around.

Sun + Planet + rotation + Clouds + Water Vapour = We don't all freeze at -15degC average.

Isn't it great to have our self-regulating planetary climate?

 

Water vapour is a very powerful greenhouse gas. Clouds also keep heat in like a blanket because they are dense patches of water vapour AND ALSO droplets. The reflective quality of clouds also works in the opposite way in that the white reflective nature of cloud tops also reflects sunlight back into space and has an overall cooling effect.

 

GOOGLE's AI says that on earth, water vapour accounts for about half of the total greenhouse effect.

 

Without any greenhouse effects from the atmosphere, earth would have a mean temperature of about minus 18 centigrade.

 

We know that in the distant past virtually the whole planet was covered year round in ice. This occurred shortly after the evolution of plants and cyano bacteria which used up the vast majority of co2 in the atmosphere leaving only very low levels. It probably took random, but huge volcanic events to reverse this.

 

See the hundred million year cold period around 260 to 360 million years ago.

 

What do you use it for?

to analyse emails. Another pet project is to produce audiobooks.

This is where gov is going?

 

Why not? We mostly eventually end up disabled to some degree anyway.

.

If the ice were really going to melt, they wouldn't need 6 new icebreakers, would they?

 

Missing the point yet again. It is precisely because climate change is starting to open the N/W passage that there is now a race to claim territorial rights. The USA is far behind Russia in Ice Breakers, hence the panic now to catch up. Remember Russia has already claimed possession of the North Pole with an implanted flag on the sea floor there, so they are way ahead of all the other polar nations.

.

Edited October 31, 20241 yr by flecc

Missing the point yet again. It is precisely because climate change is starting to open the N/W passage that there is now a race to claim territorial rights. The USA is far behind Russia in Ice Breakers, hence the panic now to catch up. Remember Russia has already claimed possession of the North Pole with an implanted flag on the sea foor there, so they are way ahead of all the other polar nations.

.

 

The problem of 'missing the point' arises because some folks are completely closed off to ideas that don't suit them. They are not so much trying to learn something, but are set on massaging what they already think through finding any indicator which supports their established view and ignoring or dismissing every other.

 

So when I pointed out yesterday that NASA has reliable data on the temperature across the whole planet made every single day by a fleet of calibrated monitoring satellites, the answer fired back was 'Who controls NASA?' The mind set, seems rooted in ruling out ANY and EVERY source that does not support what the individuals already believe in. It is almost a 'religious' sort of outlook, like my old Dad, warning me when I was eighteen, that it was a 'sin' to doubt the beliefs of the faith he had brought me up in. If you rule out any source of information that points in ways you do not like, you are bound to remain in a bubble of error. There are people here who really believe there is a huge conspiracy to deceive them. There is a conspiracy - it is their own.

 

I know I am a pretty cantankerous and argumentative person, but I have always been delighted to find new information which changes the way I see the world. I spent quite a long time researching alternatives to human induced climate change, such as examining the period of the mini ice age (Maunder Minimum) and theories that solar activity might change our climate.

 

These ideas are at first look, quite reasonable, because many stars are unstable in their output. Ours though is VERY stable, which is probably why we are here in the first place on a planet which is literally teaming with life. So I had to abandon my objections, because they did not work. YES... there are plenty of non human causes of climate change in the history of the planet - absolutely massive ones, but they do not account for the current situation. Of course, as I have said before, I condemn the panic that some sources spread about a world burning up, or turning into a hellscape like Venus is. Those have no basis. Life will go on as it existed here in the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods when the mean global temperature was perhaps 25c and not 15c as now, but it may not be life like we see now. The only land animals then were huge reptiles.

 

If people don't want to learn and won't change their minds and openly examine evidence in a dispassionate way they are running up a blind alley. Had that been the case for our ancestors we would still be asking doctors to bleed us with leeches, applying poultices to the sick and having the kind of early death rates they saw in the Middle Ages. We would also never have accepted new technology and would be riding about on horseback or in carts and the majority would have a horizon about five miles from where they were born. We would still be burning witches - and oh... It is Halloween today!

Sorry, wrong, even the "sceance-tists" agree that most greenhouse effect is due to water vapour, whether invisible or visible clouds.

The amount varies because they cannot measure it, it is all Estimated from "Models".

"It's good to get a job in Meteorology, because one can be wrong more than half the time, and still not get fired!"

 

Climate models are built on flux dynamics, then verified by satellites. The problem is while we can measure the amount of irradiance from the sun or the amount of heat from fossil burning etc quite precisely, the current models are still not good enough when back testing against fossil records and recent weather to the point of being able to predict storms, flood in the next year to next 20 years.

The difficulty arises from not knowing exactly how much ice / super cooled water in the clouds. Ice reflects more sunlight than super cooled water. That problem will be solved in the next few years. In the meantime, you should know that hotter weather increases the proportion of super cooled water in clouds and that's a more floods and storms.

Trump sues CBS because he doesn't like criticism of him in the '60 minutes' interview with Harris.

 

https://news.sky.com/video/trump-reveals-why-he-is-suing-cbs-for-10bn-after-kamala-harris-interview-13245781

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/31/elon-musk-an-excess-of-billionaires-is-destabilising-politics-just-as-academics-predicted

Edited November 1, 20241 yr by Woosh

Who dey lead national polls?

https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/articles/cq52gv30vl1o

Wetin be di Puerto Rico comment wey cause kasala for Donald Trump campaign?

https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/articles/c079g09myymo

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvaTjAkS5JM:9

 

Edited November 1, 20241 yr by lenny

"Random, mistake, oopsie"???

One of the businesses owned by my eldest son does search engine optimisation. This involves writing content and setting up links. He used to employ a number of content writers but now uses ChatGpt to generate much of the written content they need to generate. They still proof read it with human intervention, but employ fewer people now because the chatbots can generate appropriate text very quickly.

 

To preserve their cash cow, I expect Google is making a massive effort to AI that AI content out.

i just spent 60k fkn gunts cut the right to buy discount from 21 nov

https://www.allsides.com/story/environment-dc-based-world-bank-loses-track-41-billion-allocated-fighting-climate-change

https://ussanews.com/2024/10/18/world-bank-loses-track-of-41-billion-handed-out-for-climate-ideologies/

https://deepnewz.com/economics/world-bank-loses-track-up-to-41-billion-climate-change-funding-oxfam-reports-24-48b84a83

https://bigthink.com/the-present/corruption-costs-world-3-6-trillion/

What're they worried about? Just print some more climate, oops I mean, money.

Quantative Squeezing tax !

So when I pointed out yesterday that NASA has reliable data on the temperature across the whole planet made every single day by a fleet of calibrated monitoring satellites, the answer fired back was 'Who controls NASA?' The mind set, seems rooted in ruling out ANY and EVERY source that does not support what the individuals already believe in. It is almost a 'religious' sort of outlook!

It's not religious to ask questions. Religion is believing without question. I think you need to look in the mirror and read what you wrote out loud to yourself.

Religion is believing without question.

humans have been pregrogrammed to believe in right and wrong. Would you question that?

humans have been pregrogrammed to believe in right and wrong. Would you question that?

 

I would question it. Definitely.

 

Humans are like open system computers. They will run whatever program society runs on them. At the end of WW2, at the Nuremberg Trials, the prosecution stated that soldiers KNEW right from wrong according to some objective (western) standard of ethics and that it was no defence to say you were following orders after carrying out instructions from superior officers. This is manifest rubbish, as anyone who seriously studies the way different human societies now and across history have acted towards other people.

 

EVERYTHING we hold dear comes from the upbringing we have in the family and in society at large. A baby comes into the world programmed by nature to watch its family and neighbours and to fit into society. A child born in Germany or Japan in 1930, or even 1920, was trained and brain washed into a set of values which made obedience to the prevailing creed an essential characteristic. They believed everything they were told and carried out actions we would regard as horrific, believing it was their duty and perfectly good.

 

Ethics are dictated by those who bring us up, not some internal program.

 

Look at historical societies and the way they behaved. We regard their ways, beliefs and actions as pretty horrific. They didn't. Do you think the ISIL beheaders think they are evil? They don't. They REALLY believe in what they do. Another thing is that it is VERY hard to undo this stuff. Once people get into what we see as crazy thinking, they are hard to move. This is why in spite of the obvious (more and more obvious) people are still devoted to Donald Trump and think he is an ideal man to be in charge of Government in the USA. Some of these believers don't even live there...