I'm also a bit dubious of this 'two years and you're dead' idea which seems to be the gospel preached on here. We really don't know what the longevity is going to be of the batteries presently on the market,
I did take on one of the first of the new generation batteries for testing, and since it's now just past 18 months I have a very good idea of how they perform. It's been very much better in all respects from the previous incarnations, except in life pattern, and there it follows the predictions of the battery industry for lithium batteries using predominantly manganese cathodes.
In other words the capacity reduction follows the same declining pattern, less severe but nonetheless enough to embarrass the owner who uses most of the range in their trips. In addition the performance reduction through the steady decline in cell voltages is apparent. Cutting out is no longer the problem it once was with the most powerful motors, but the climb ability is appreciably below what it was when new.
With most e-bikes using battery capacities commensurate with their motor power, around two years will still be about it for many owners, though those doing shorter trips will be able to extend that, but still not with the same performance they once had when the battery was new.
I did in fact publish a predicted life chart in the forum some time ago, illustrating this principle with predictions of life expectation for owners with differing trip lengths, the chart from memory extending to six years. However that didn't take into account this performance decline factor which could become increasingly important. To give an illustration of the effect, at the outset I could tackle one of the longest steep hills in my area with ease in either of the two lowest gears at around 8 or 9 mph. After about 230 charges it became the lowest gear only at around 7 mph, and now at well over 300 charges I prefer to avoid that hill altogether because it's so much harder on me slogging at 6 mph for 15 minutes. No cutting out any more as happened with this very high consumption powerful motor with earlier batteries, so the voltage remaining above 32, but obviously a lot lower under load than in it's earlier days
With perhaps the honourable exceptions of the high capacity Wisper 14 Ah battery and the very well managed Panasonic system battery, I don't see the new generation batteries having greatly extended life yet, though their performance at all points in that life will be better. I think we are going to have to wait for iron cathodes before theres a really appreciable change in the life for each usage pattern.
It's only my opinion, but it's really the *only* personal electric transport which works at the moment (discounting mobility scooters, ho ho), and that's only happened within the past two or three years.
A bit harsh perhaps? The Panasonic system bikes have been very viable for 7 years now, and Powabykes, albeit heavy, with up to 30 mile range capability have been on the roads for a decade. Lithium batteries did put a hiccup in the progress, so it's easy to forget how well NiMh performed in much earlier years on such as the eZee bikes which in their modern incarnations have been around for over five years now.
I also think the e-scooter now just as viable as e-bikes, the cheap ones with ranges matching or exceeding most e-bikes, and a new lithium batteried one cheaper than the Vectrix with performance far beyond e-bikes.
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) to upload the usage data to the manufacturer.
