Brexit, for once some facts.

Many are rightly asking for facts instead of the inane propaganda that both sides are issuing in the EU dabate.

Here for once is an actual case which includes many of the consequences that will accompany Brexit and any attempt to limit EU migration. This isn't part of the propaganda, it's merely a correspondent's short report on an actual situation, and it's often somewhat mind blowing. Brexiters will hate the EU even more after listening.

Because such evidence is so scarce I'm posting it as a separate thread from the EU debate one so that everyone gets a chance to hear it. The item's excerpt of the radio program link below starts at 16 mins, 35 secs, and lasts just 5 mins, 50 seconds:

Program Link

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It seems to me that most of Brexiters are lashing out about anything and everything. They just want change. They probably don't care about the economy or anything else.

I think there is a lot of truth in the above. I'm not sure that Brexiters don't care about the economy, I think they do. But they can see the risks to the economy don't outweigh the long term risks to the UK as a whole by remaining part of the failing EU and eventually getting dragged down with it.

I think there is a lot of truth in the above. I'm not sure that Brexiters don't care about the economy, I think they do. But they can see the risks to the economy don't outweigh the long term risks to the UK as a whole by remaining part of the failing EU and eventually getting dragged down with it.

So your belief is that they prefer instant results rather than have to wait for failure?

Interesting....

So Brexit if we are to take Switzerland's case as an example, amounts to

1:Loss of the entire European Market

2: The withdrawal of all Foreign owned businesses manufacturing here to sell to Europe.

Who we Gonna call to fill those gaps?

Ah well, we can wave our little union jacks and strike a heroic pose as we starve I suppose, revelling in our "Control over our own affairs, and our childrens future"

Our best plan then would be to grovel to the Americans, or alternatively teach Mandarin as a main language and go cap in hand to Beijing, wouldn't it?

What a utterly brilliant idea, which proves as Father used to say

"Nothing if foolproof to the Talented Fool"

So your belief is that they prefer instant results rather than have to wait for failure?

Interesting....

I'm sorry, but I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

So Brexit if we are to take Switzerland's case as an example, amounts to

1:Loss of the entire European Market

2: The withdrawal of all Foreign owned businesses manufacturing here to sell to Europe.

1 and 2 won't happen. Dave Cameron is just saying these things to frighten you. It's like the Boggey Man when you were a child.

Thought idea behind tho thread was for some facts.?? We,ve had assumptions and not much else.

Like many things in history we don't know consequences until post the event.

We have had 99% speculation from all the politicians.

1 and 2 won't happen. Dave Cameron is just saying these things to frighten you. It's like the Boggey Man when you were a child.

Actually I'm not quoting Cameron, as it said in my post Switzerland has provided us with a perfect example of what will and has happened to them.

I'm sorry, but I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

Frankly that doesn't surprise me at all!

Thought idea behind tho thread was for some facts.?? We,ve had assumptions and not much else.

Like many things in history we don't know consequences until post the event.

We have had 99% speculation from all the politicians.

The Swiss have provided you with enough facts of their experience surely?

Thought idea behind tho thread was for some facts.??

And that's what you got.

The facts were what is happening to the Swiss. It's an example and a warning of what could happen to us if we attempt the same things.

N.B. Crossed with oldgroaner's post.

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Actually I'm not quoting Cameron, as it said in my post Switzerland has provided us with a perfect example of what will and has happened to them.

I don't know if the same will happen to us if we leave the EU and neither do you.

And that's what you got.

 

The facts were what is happening to the Swiss. It's an example and a warning of what could happen to us if we attempt the same things.

 

N.B. Crossed with oldgroaner's post.

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No the facts are simply certain things have happened/ happening in Switzerland. Assuming those occurrnces would repeat themselves under Brexit for UK is sheer speculation.

It might but it might not..nobody knows. That's the only fact..hence the debate and problem deciding.

No the facts are simply certain things have happened/ happening in Switzerland. Assuming those occurrnces would repeat themselves under Brexit for UK is sheer speculation.

It might but it might not..nobody knows. That's the only fact..hence the debate and problem deciding.

Not no, yes. The facts are what I stated.

I didn't assume anything, I only said it was an indication of what could happen to us.

As for likelyhood, the Swiss experiences are a strong indicator. And as you Brexiters have said, David Cameron's was unable to get a good deal from the EU countries, another strong factual indicator of how little they are prepared to concede to us. He found out something that was already clear to most of us, the other EU countries are fed up with our lack of co-operation in the EU project and regular demands for special treatment.

Against these factual things, where is there evidence with any strength that we will get a good deal that doesn't leave us worse off? All the factual indicators are negative.

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Many are rightly asking for facts instead of the inane propaganda that both sides are issuing in the EU debate.

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Thought at first you were referring to "Death From Above"

I do have to laugh at the Brexit mantra of 'getting our sovereignty back' - it quite misunderstands the way the world now works. Our options will always be limited by many agreements, treaties and realpolitik.

It's a bit like marriage - yes, when I was single I could choose to slump in front of the TV or go out with my mates. Now, married with kids, my choices in some ways are more limited. But my married years have been by far the most productive and happy, despite my loss of 'sovereignty'.

Thought at first you were referring to "Death From Above"

 

I do have to laugh at the Brexit mantra of 'getting our sovereignty back' - it quite misunderstands the way the world now works. Our options will always be limited by many agreements, treaties and realpolitik.

 

It's a bit like marriage - yes, when I was single I could choose to slump in front of the TV or go out with my mates. Now, married with kids, my choices in some ways are more limited. But my married years have been by far the most productive and happy, despite my loss of 'sovereignty'.

A perfect real world example Alistair, we give up some freedoms for the gains in the quality and richness of life that come with association.

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If sovereignty is such an important issue we may as well go back in History to being separate little nations on this little island of ours.

Let's hear it for the Kingdom of Northumbria folks!

What utter nonsense, and no doubt that would work for Germany going back into the little kingdoms it was comprised of?

Why don't we suggest that to them and see what response we get?

The future of Humanity has to be working together to eventually when we "grow up" as sentient beings to having a World State and an end to wars.

The EU is a small step in the right direction, in danger of being derailed by people who are trying to prevent the future happening out of short term view self interest.

No one denies the EU has problems, Lord knows many of them can be laid at our door due to stupid interventions in the middle east, adding to the Instability there.

It would have been possible to get better negotiations in Brussels if we hadn't fielded about 50% of our MEPS who not only were uninterested in doing any work, but actively are hostile to it's mere existence.

And then to add insult to injury their "doings" are it seems deliberately not exposed to the public gaze as they should be.

There is a deafening silence on what they have been up to, hasn't there.

We have in fact been no more than a "Bloody minded minor nuisance" at the European parliament for years, not a fully participating member.

All that successive governments have done have used it as a "Whipping Boy" to cover up their own failures and excesses, and blame it for their inaction.

And the press have acted as their champions, no matter how stupid their actions have been.

And now the Brexit supporters want us to jump ship and take to a lifeboat run by this sordid bunch of fakes and con men?

Better to be disembowelled with a blunt spoon.

I don't know if the same will happen to us if we leave the EU and neither do you.

And do you have any reason to step blindly into the unknown? that's like searching for a gas leak with a lit match.

Effective in one sense, but survival is a matter of relying on luck.

It is quite obviously a pointless risk and there is nothing to commend it in the way of positive advantage.

All the so called "options" and "opportunities" are purely speculative and on a completely uncertain time scale too (quite probably appearing too late to prevent economic collapse)

"pie in the sky" about describes it.

Because of immigration we have a solvable problem with population levels, Brexiters insist that we behave like Lemmings instead of seeking a consensus solution, which is the rational thing to do, and in the end will be forced upon us anyway, in or out of the EU.

Edited May 29, 20169 yr by oldgroaner

And do you have any reason to step blindly into the unknown? that's like searching for a gas leak with a lit match.

Effective in one sense, but survival is a matter of relying on luck.

It is quite obviously a pointless risk and there is nothing to commend it in the way of positive advantage.

All the so called "options" and "opportunities" are purely speculative and on a completely uncertain time scale too (quite probably appearing too late to prevent economic collapse)

"pie in the sky" about describes it.

Because of immigration we have a solvable problem with population levels, Brexiters insist that we behave like Lemmings instead of seeking a consensus solution, which is the rational thing to do, and in the end will be forced upon us anyway, in or out of the EU.

Both options, Leave or Stay are a step into the unknown. I am saying that you can't predict what will happen if we leave, you can guess but that is all. Your forecast is no more certain than any other prediction.

My guess is that we can maintain a friendly and peaceful relationship with Europe whilst selling to the countries which want our goods and services. Similarly, we can buy goods from those countries which offer something appealing to us. That has happened since the beginning of time and it will continue with or without the EU, history is on our side.

The EU stance seems to indicate that friendship, cooperation and trade will be stamped out, extinguished and not be allowed to flourish unless we surrender increasing amounts of our independence to this faceless system which no one seems to identify with. It does not have to be like that, we can be friends with the EU after Brexit. Of course, if another EU nation repays our friendship and help with acts of open hostility and aggression in the form of an invasion (as seems to be prophesised by the IN Campaign), we have our Trident missile system with which to defend ourselves.

I am saying that you can't predict what will happen if we leave,

 

My guess is that we can maintain a friendly and peaceful relationship with Europe whilst selling to the countries which want our goods and services.

Yes we can predict what will happen if we leave, for two reasons:

The first is the proven Swiss example of what trying to restrict free movement results in.

The second is our UK proven one "Been there, done that, failed". I mean of course what happened to David Cameron when he tried it. He went to the EU countries to negotiate a better deal, particularly with reference to gaining control over free movement. As you Brexiters said, he failed miserably. He got a metaphorical bloody nose, with leader after leader absolutely refusing to budge on free movement. Some made it very clear, bluntly saying if we don't like it, leave the EU. It's really an absolute, not only for the Swiss but also proven for us.

So if we want to trade without barriers with any EU countries, we will still have freedom of movement.

So I turn now to the Brexiter argument that the EU trade with us is too valuable for them to lose, so they'll make concessions. Wrong again, the EU has never done a single euro's worth of trade with the UK, our trade is with member countries, and individually many of them couldn't care less about trade with the UK since they either sell us little or nothing.

And that is crucial, since to get anything agreed, right down to each item, all the other 27 countries have to agree. That's never going to happen for an outsider to the EU, as the Swiss example has shown. Seven long years of negotiation and then an agreement only with total capitulation and still paying in to the EU.

For us if we vote to leave that is a disaster, since we will be even worse off. Not only will we have agreed to Shengen, we'll also have lost our current generous rebate.

The alternative of many Brexiters is to say to hell with the EU and trade with the rest of the world. All I can say is best of luck. The commonwealth countries have never forgiven our betrayal when we joined the EU and stopped buying their produce. Since then they've found more convenient and often lucrative markets to trade with, so our chances there are negligible.

African trading has beeen sewn up by the Chinese with their generous construction projects buying favour. The Falklands issue fouled our relations with Argentina and Brazil and the rest there are basket cases. Russia is sanctioned and in any case unreliable, and we've got as much as we'll ever get with the USA.

So that leaves China as the only market big enough to replace our EU trade. Well goodness knows we've tried hard enough there, constantly sending prime ministers, trade secretaries and members of the royal family, but in the end about all we sell them is a few luxury cars.

Ergo, if you persuade the public to vote us out, it will either mean crawling to the EU or be an isolated disaster.

But do you know what, I almost hope you succeed, because then you'll finally be forced to open your mind to the truth.

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Great post Tony. Really enjoying the debate on here.

As someone who has little knowledge of politics, it's given me a lot of insight.

The argument for remaining seems by far the stronger to me.

Flecc your summation missed out 7th largest economy in world ( its actually ranked 3rd by direct spending power within country)India.

European Union cane 140th in GDP growth in 2015. Those countries below 180th saw drops in GDP.

Your entire argument is speculation. Yes we might see short term gdp drops but world is a big place with plenty of untapped markets. Its very short sighted to assume UK cant compete on its own, as it did for a thousand years, without paying for bureaucratic nonesennse from EU.

Our real cost remaining in EU is £250kk per WEEK. , this will rise with reduction in rebates over next ten years. We are not part of Europe,never have been,and culturally never will be. I,ve lived in France/ Northern Spain last 10 years and witnessed the money thrown away on roads,local infrastructure and facilities we could only dream of.Our cash had been used to keep Spain,s head above water,give it a road network it cant use and facilities it cant. Just pay a visit to Northern Spain and have a look.

You would change your mind if you had seen in detail where our £350 kk a week is going.

Exactly why do you want to pay £250kk a week to stay in a marriage you get little from apart from loss of control of borders, rules about Hoovers,what units we must use and what we can and can not buy.

Its barmy and staying in shows lack of faith in countries real assets and qualities.

The French could not organise a proverbial in a brewery without writing a tome about it. ( Estate agents charging 6% for selling property and they wonder why housing market is in state of collapse) Rule after stupid rule. ( 3 certificates to scrap a car) France is a beuratic nightmare and we are aligning ourselves with them and worse...

We will live to regret staying .

Folk from UK undersell themselves all the time. We work hardest, organise things better and have unbelievablely skilled workforce, despite all the BS saying otherwise. We should have faith in ourselves and confidence to tackle future without interference from France/ Germany.( which we pay for)

Yes it might be racist and massive generalisations but my travels , and living, around Europe really make me think generally the French are lazy and love beurocracy, the Italians are corrupt and bankrupt, the Greeks don't pay tax but demand handouts from EU ( specifically Germany , who wanted Greek islands for themselves for hand outs.) I,m telling you Europe is in a mess, yes us leaving might make it worse.

Edited May 29, 20169 yr by (NoLongerRegistered#15675)

Flecc your summation missed out 7th largest economy in world ( its actually ranked 3rd by direct spending power within country)India.

I was aware of that and India wasn't the only area I left out, but I was only including those with enough potential for our purpose. I cannot see India as remotely having the potential to replace our trade with the EU, given our cost base. India's large buying potential is with countries that can supply at cost levels compatible with their low wage economy.

Your reference to us managing on our own for a thousand years is the barmy element here. The only history that counts is the very recent and current situation, and our decline has been throughout that period. In 1922 we made the most disastrous set of five political decisions that any modern country has ever made, leading to most of the western world's recent and present troubles. So politically we showed ourselves no longer competent.

Then our industrial decline began from about 1930, was hidden by WW2 but became very apparent after that war. In quick succession we lost our bicycle, motorcycle, car, lorry and bus, shipbuilding, railway manufacturing and almost our entire aircraft industries, the latter being left as a parts maker.

Then we moved onto losing some key international commerce functions, such as going from the world's onetime largest maritime nation to losing all of its world shipping.

With what manufacturing we have largely owned by others and producing for others, we are mainly left now with being a services provider and tourist centre. So I see rather limited remaining potential on our own, without the muscle of a big bloc protecting us.

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Edited May 30, 20169 yr by flecc

I was aware of that and India wasn't the only area I left out, but I was only incuding those with enough potential for our purpose. I cannot see India as remotely having the potential to replace our trade with the EU, given our cost base. India's large buying potential is with countries that can supply at cost levels compatible with their low wage economy.

 

Your reference to us managing on our own for a thousand years is the barmy element here. The only history that counts is the very recent and current situation, and our decline has been throughout that period. In 1922 we made the most disastrous set of five political decisions that any modern country has ever made, leading to most of the western world's recent and present troubles. So politically we showed ourselves no longer competent.

 

Then our industrial decline began from about 1930, was hidden by WW2 but became very apparent after that war. In quick succession we lost our bicycle, motorcycle, car, lorry and bus, shipbuilding, railway manufacturing and almost our entire aircraft industries, the latter being left as a parts maker.

 

Then we moved onto losing some key international commerce functions, such as going from the world's onetime largest maritime nation to losing all of its world shipping.

 

With what manufacturing we have largely owned by others and producing for others, we are mainly left now with being a services provider and tourist centre. So I see rather limited remaining potential on our own, without the muscle of a big bloc protecting us.

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But we are a net provider for EU ??? ( We put far more in than take out).

And yes our GDP has changed in uts character and arrives from different channels but we still have a skil base envied throughout world. ( ask Rolls Royce, Toyota, all F1 development,)

I dont see how our change in revenue streams changes our ability to be independant from EU . Those same changes have affected most western world, yet we have emerged in a better position than any others ( few exceptions because of oil revenues)

Yes trade surcharges could be introduced on UK goods in Europe, but as you have already said we are not a major goods supplier..

Don't get me wrong Flecc ,I,m not saying your points are totally wrong, U,m saying nobody but nobody really knows.

What we do know is we are losing control of borders,the eu are hitting all with stupid rules. ( you cant buy a 1000w hoover anymore) and we are putting far more in than taking out.

Exactly what are the real net benefits of being in eu. Nobody knows.

Will Toyota and RR move aeay from Derby if we leave ? I doubt it.

Will we have better control of borders ? I suspect so.

Will we loose Gibraltar? Yes?

Will we be better off financially ? Yes ?

Will I lose money on house abroad ? Yes definitely. The housing market in Europe is way worse than ours and its only going to get worse stay or not.

Our image of Europe is Monaco,Paris and autobahns. The reality is Sangette, migrants,unsold empty houses ;robberies in Northern Spain and unfortunately terror attacks in Belgium.

I really think we are better on our own, but Cameron and co have got so much invested interest I cant see it happening.

Edited May 29, 20169 yr by (NoLongerRegistered#15675)