Will the transition from fossil fuels be similar to that from Petrol to Diesel?

[Ultra Motor]

Just my views, would be interested in yours!
Will the transition from fossil fuels be similar to that from Petrol to Diesel? « My electric road

 

[trex]

No. Transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is exciting, from petrol to diesel is plain boring.
Diesel it has no notable advantages over other petroleum products, finds favour now, gone in 20 year time (may be little more but before 30 years). Personal transports will get smaller and consume less like the gwiz. Two wheeler will still be small numbers on our roads. I'd invest in a company producing e-cars with a 2000W motor for under £5,000 for use in cities.

 

[Straylight]

I hate to say this, as I'd like to see nothing more than an absence of oil burners on the road, but the main objection to (or excuse used not to consider) electric vehicles had some validity. People I talk to simply aren't prepared to accept the time it takes to charge the batteries, after all no-one wants to be stuck at a motorway service station for a minute longer than they need to be. There are great claims made about how, with a 3-phase charger, you can charge to 80% very quickly, but I've never seen this demonstrated in a high profile manner - I think it's this concept that needs to be pushed very hard in the general PR surrounding electric transport. It's a question of the convenience factor, so how about an advert that shows someone pulling into a service station, plugging in, having a coffee, then being able to immediately drive away for another 100miles or so?

By contrast, the transition to diesel, was merely a matter of pouring a different fluid into the tank, in practical terms.

As far as I can see, there won't be any transition to EVs, without a serious charm offensive, and the pricing of such machines being brought down to a viable level.

The notion that EVs are great for urban travel is great, but how many people can afford to have a second, long distance car waiting for occasional use?

 

[trex]

Imagine that a clever company rents out batteries for e-vehicles, then suddenly, refuelling won't be so difficult. Manufacturers will use this facility if it exists.
At present, there are too many manufacturers, the market is still finding out winners and losers.
They make very powerful e-cars because European clients can afford to pay premium for green transport. Their big motors make battery swapping difficult.
If you consider a 2KW motor in a 200Kgs car, swapping a couple of 48V 20AH battery is possible.

 

[flecc]

I think it's a very false comparison. Diesel vehicles and fuel cost more, but the costs can be recovered by high mileage users quite quickly.

Electric car battery costs are astronomic and likely to remain that way, and there is no possibility of high mileage usage compensating, due to the range and charge time restrictions.

The current launching of e-cars is premature, years before they are ready to exist in the market, and it's being done just to please governments and gain a bit of experience. No manufacturer, including Nissan/Mitsubishi/Renault/Peugeot, thinks they are genuinely viable yet, they really aren't that stupid. They'll just sell a few to the wealthy and let the market take the blame for the failure to get widespread adoption, rather than the car manufacturers always getting the stick for not introducing them.

Fossil fuels have at last 50 years to go yet.

 

[Ultra Motor]

No. Transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is exciting, from petrol to diesel is plain boring.
Diesel it has no notable advantages over other petroleum products, finds favour now, gone in 20 year time (may be little more but before 30 years). Personal transports will get smaller and consume less like the gwiz. Two wheeler will still be small numbers on our roads. I'd invest in a company producing e-cars with a 2000W motor for under £5,000 for use in cities.

Hi Trex- whilst valid and it would probably take off, the technology isn't there yet to accomodate a vehicle at that cost...

 

[Ultra Motor]

I hate to say this, as I'd like to see nothing more than an absence of oil burners on the road, but the main objection to (or excuse used not to consider) electric vehicles had some validity. People I talk to simply aren't prepared to accept the time it takes to charge the batteries, after all no-one wants to be stuck at a motorway service station for a minute longer than they need to be. There are great claims made about how, with a 3-phase charger, you can charge to 80% very quickly, but I've never seen this demonstrated in a high profile manner - I think it's this concept that needs to be pushed very hard in the general PR surrounding electric transport. It's a question of the convenience factor, so how about an advert that shows someone pulling into a service station, plugging in, having a coffee, then being able to immediately drive away for another 100miles or so?

By contrast, the transition to diesel, was merely a matter of pouring a different fluid into the tank, in practical terms.

As far as I can see, there won't be any transition to EVs, without a serious charm offensive, and the pricing of such machines being brought down to a viable level.

The notion that EVs are great for urban travel is great, but how many people can afford to have a second, long distance car waiting for occasional use?

Straylight- I agree with the 'range anxiety' issue. But how many people do more than 100 miles in one go regularly? I'd hazard a guess at 20% of motorists? If you had an electric car and then were signed up to a car club where you can (at low cost) hire a car for those longer trips that you perform occasionally. This would work?

Alternatively on battery swapping there is: Planet Better Place who have been proposing this for many years.

 

[Ultra Motor]

I think it's a very false comparison. Diesel vehicles and fuel cost more, but the costs can be recovered by high mileage users quite quickly.

Electric car battery costs are astronomic and likely to remain that way, and there is no possibility of high mileage usage compensating, due to the range and charge time restrictions.

The current launching of e-cars is premature, years before they are ready to exist in the market, and it's being done just to please governments and gain a bit of experience. No manufacturer, including Nissan/Mitsubishi/Renault/Peugeot, thinks they are genuinely viable yet, they really aren't that stupid. They'll just sell a few to the wealthy and let the market take the blame for the failure to get widespread adoption, rather than the car manufacturers always getting the stick for not introducing them.

Fossil fuels have at last 50 years to go yet.

Hi Flecc, the comparison is more about consumer acceptance and usage, rather than cost.

I have to disagree on it being a 'government pleasing fad'. All manufacturers are spending £M's on producing new vehicles. Companies are adopting useage either through purchase or hire, like the Hertz scheme. The technology is developing and with super capacitors and other technologies it starts to become a viable alternative. There is so much momentum building its going to change.
I do agree that fossil fuel vehicles will be about for many years yet, but the electric revolution is just starting. The first ever car was electric!

 

[trex]

I suspect a lot of us own more than one bike because they are small, light, cause relatively low impact on earth's resources and frankly, so cheap. Most e-cars do not fit any of these criteria but ebikes do.
So a lighter version of the Gwiz would still be light, small but more affordable. The current Gwiz has a top speed of 51mph - who needs this speed in the CC zone? If the maximum speed is reduced to 30mph, the motor does not need to be as powerful and the battery can be half the weight and half the cost. India and China produce a lot of electric cars, not for millionaires but for cost conscious consumers.

 

[Straylight]

Yes, here in the west we do tend to think of ourselves as being at the centre of the world. So perhaps the green revolution will come from the east - I do hope so, as here we're very intransigent when it comes to the way we do things. This can partly be blamed on a mature infrastructure that we can't really afford to change.

 

[trex]

I have a lot of respect for the Chinese approach, it's not perfect but it's realistic and economical. They already are world number 1 in solar and wind energy although the Germans still produce the best technology in the world. Some of the green tech like ebikes and ecars can really be cottage industry. Who knows, some of the members of this forum may one day form an investment club!

 

[flecc]

the comparison is more about consumer acceptance and usage, rather than cost.

The technology is developing and with super capacitors and other technologies it starts to become a viable alternative.

The first ever car was electric!

Of course the public accept the concept of the ideal e-car, but they won't use today's or pay their cost.

It's the same promise that's been around for many years, super-capacitors, super-conductivity, advanced batteries etc. Tomorrow never comes, which is why the lead-acid battery still totally dominates the high discharge market.

The fact that the first cars were electric, and very successful too, shows how the technology always fails to keep pace.

The day of the e-car is many years away. They will improve very slowly with small advances and the prices will creep down. At the same time the costs of fossil fuel motoring will continue to rise, so there will come the time when e-cars could get more popular, but that will still require something else to change, the electricity supply market. Ultimately we will have to at least double our present infrastructure and output, and there will still remain the immense technical problem of the amount of power to "fuel" stations for recharging. The average busy station will need a huge substation attached, much larger than it's own current area, and supplied by overhead cables from pylons.

It's generally true that e-car enthusiasts haven't thought the subject through, it's infinitely more complex than most imagine. For the forseeable future the e-car will be only a miniscule part of the market and could yet disappear like the earlier attempts from GM in the USA and Peugeot in France.

 

[oigoi]

The Renault Twizy sounds a bit like the kind of car trex is thinking of - coming out soon, supposed to cost the same as a posh moped, I for one am looking forward to seeing what the price / performance / range of them will be like

 

[flecc]

Link to Renault Twizy

€6990 for single seat car alone, plus €45 per month for battery leasing.
.

 

[trex]

The Twizy costs 6,900 Euros.

15kW 20hp electric motor, with a top speed of 47mph 420kg range 60 miles.

I am after a lighter version Twizy with a bank of Kalkhoff batteries...

 

[Mussels]

Link to Renault Twizy

€6990 for single seat car alone, plus €45 per month for battery leasing.
.

I actually find that tempting, it's range is long enough to be a commuter vehicle and I have charging points available near work. My public transport cost is about £2600 a year and is slow so this is viable, well it would be if I didn't have the pedelec.

 

[Scottyf]

Crossover will come when fossil fuels are more expensive than alternatives / Bio fuel or Electric.
Untill then you may as well sit tight.

I can't see many people who are used to driving Audi / BMW's and other prestige cars swapping for one seater transport.

Consumers will want there car to run how they did on petrol / diesel with all the gizmo's present but using electric.
Untill that becomes affordable it will never make a mass produced market in the UK.

I love the way other countries use transport untill it falls apart etc but we as a country are to far passed that.

 

[flecc]

I actually find that tempting, it's range is long enough to be a commuter vehicle and I have charging points available near work. My public transport cost is about £2600 a year and is slow so this is viable, well it would be if I didn't have the pedelec.

It's definitely more practical for commuting at present than "proper" cars like the Leaf. Although as a single seater it doesn't compare well with an e-bike, basic car and battery cost over four years about £8000, I'm sure many wouldn't mind that given the weather protection and the safety of larger road presence.

I've calculated it should easily be good for climbing a 10% hill at 30 mph plus with an 80 kilo driver, so this microcar approach is realistic at present for commuters who have off road parking at home for charging.

 

[Scottyf]

Its definetly a more practical approach. When i used to drive alot I brought a 4 door for space. Although 99% of journeys are travelled on my own. So yes this does show a better result on personal commuting transport. Would be better if it had doors and could reach the legal motorway limit.

I'm sure you could get the weight down I mean 420kg is still fairly heavy for a seater...

The great thing about all electric is that its very easy to incorporate a 4 wheel drive machine and becasue of the torque from the get go would be very capable off road machines. Of on a tangent on that last bit.

 

[Mussels]

The great thing about all electric is that its very easy to incorporate a 4 wheel drive machine and becasue of the torque from the get go would be very capable off road machines. Of on a tangent on that last bit.

It's been done by Land Rover but IIRC still uses a normal open drivetrain, it's far easier to use brakes for traction control than independant motors.