Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,457
32,608
79
Yes, the lesser of 3 evils. Corbyn would do far more danage to econony then Brexit ever could and his defence policy is a complete and utter shambles.... errr. Keep Trident replacement at billions and billions but tell whole world he would never ever use it...now that is stupidity at its utmost. But that is Corbyn's way. Sit on fence. May on the other hand has gone up in my estimations. From utterly useless to best of a bad lot.
Defence policy? we can't stop an invasion of people riding on Rubber Ducks!
 

Nev

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 1, 2018
1,507
2,520
North Wales
The one key thing you omitted was the far greater determination of Remainers to vote this time. So many, including the politicians and even Boris Johnson, believed Remain would win last time, that it bred complacency among Remainers who often didn't bother to vote.
This is very logical and makes a lot of sense to me, however the leave side won last time by mainly appealing to peoples emotion and not to logic. They reasoned very early on, before the campaign began that they would not win many votes by talking about the financial side of things. Instead they concentrated on immigration and abstract things like Sovereignty things that people feel rather than think logically about.

They would likely do the same thing again, plus they would play the establishment stitch up card once again, I think the campaign would become very bitter and nasty. The far right would almost certainly try and organise street protests. I think it would be a huge risk to opt for another referendum with all that could entail.

I really don't like May, I don't like her deal, but I can't see another option that does not lead to an awful lot of trouble. Do I wish we never had this vote, of course I do, but we had it and 52% of people who voted, chose leave. May can say her deal gives leavers quite a lot of what they were hoping to get while at the same time avoiding a hard Brexit.

I suspect if she can get one or two minor concessions from the EU, she might garner enough votes to get it passed, perhaps on a second attempt. If she can't get it through then what other options are there, bearing in mind we leave on WTO terms the end of March.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,610
12,256
73
Ireland
This is very logical and makes a lot of sense to me, however the leave side won last time by mainly appealing to peoples emotion and not to logic. They reasoned very early on, before the campaign began that they would not win many votes by talking about the financial side of things. Instead they concentrated on immigration and abstract things like Sovereignty things that people feel rather than think logically about.

They would likely do the same thing again, plus they would play the establishment stitch up card once again, I think the campaign would become very bitter and nasty. The far right would almost certainly try and organise street protests. I think it would be a huge risk to opt for another referendum with all that could entail.

I really don't like May, I don't like her deal, but I can't see another option that does not lead to an awful lot of trouble. Do I wish we never had this vote, of course I do, but we had it and 52% of people who voted, chose leave. May can say her deal gives leavers quite a lot of what they were hoping to get while at the same time avoiding a hard Brexit.

I suspect if she can get one or two minor concessions from the EU, she might garner enough votes to get it passed, perhaps on a second attempt. If she can't get it through then what other options are there, bearing in mind we leave on WTO terms the end of March.
She will get all the "clarifications " she wants from the EU, no problem there, those eu diplomates are very smooth. What she will not get is any substantial concession.
The truth is that the Deal is the Deal and is the only game in town.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon and flecc

Fingers

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 9, 2016
3,373
1,552
45
She will get all the "clarifications " she wants from the EU, no problem there, those eu diplomates are very smooth. What she will not get is any substantial concession.
The truth is that the Deal is the Deal and is the only game in town.

You seem pretty sure of yourself. Do you have some inside knowledge?
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,817
30,381
the leave side won last time by mainly appealing to peoples emotion and not to logic. - - - - - - - - - They would likely do the same thing again, plus they would play the establishment stitch up card once again,
Like you I think the deal will still get through somehow, but if not another referendum would still come down to numbers, so for the reasons given I'm certain of a reversal in a new one.

I don't agree that there would be serious trouble, the great majority of the public are fed up with the whole brexit issue and wish it would go away. So outside of the tiny minority who feel strongly like us in this thread, most don't care enough to kick up any fuss.
.
 
Last edited:
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

Fingers

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 9, 2016
3,373
1,552
45
Like you I think the deal will still get through somehow, but if not another referendum would still come down to numbers, so for the reasons given I'm certain of a reversal in a new one.

I don't agree that there would be serious trouble, the great majority of the public are fed up with the whole brexit issue and wish it would go away. So outside of the tiny minority like us in this thread, most don't care enough to kick up any fuss.
.

I wouldn’t be too bothered but I can assure you there would be a huge uproar.

It would linger for decades.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: flecc

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,817
30,381
I wouldn’t be too bothered but I can assure you there would be a huge uproar.

It would linger for decades.
But only hot air, no actual trouble. It would die down quite quickly since, as said, the great majority are sick of the whole brexit subject and couldn't care less any more.
.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

tommie

Esteemed Pedelecer
Mar 13, 2013
1,760
600
Co. Down, N. Ireland, U.K.
She will get all the "clarifications " she wants from the EU, no problem there, those eu diplomates are very smooth. What she will not get is any substantial concession.
The truth is that the Deal is the Deal and is the only game in town.
I can assure you the Deal as it stands has no hope and bob hope of progressing, i know for a fact of 10 very smooth diplomats (as you put it) that will kill it stone dead and consequently the present government if needs be.

Imo you will find the cabal in Brussels will back down at the eleventh hour and delete the Backstop.

But if not you have only yourselves to blame
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,529
16,466
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
But only hot air, no actual trouble. It would die down quite quickly since, as said, the great majority are sick of the whole brexit subject and couldn't care less any more.
.
I just came back after a New Year reveillon drink with a few old friends in Paris. We talked for a few minutes about brexit. The French is just as fed up with the EU as us in the UK, it's L'Europe du fric jusqu'à l'écoeurement.
 

russ18uk

Pedelecer
Sep 18, 2018
71
23
I can assure you the Deal as it stands has no hope and bob hope of progressing, i know for a fact of 10 very smooth diplomats (as you put it) that will kill it stone dead and consequently the present government if needs be.

Imo you will find the cabal in Brussels will back down at the eleventh hour and delete the Backstop.

But if not you have only yourselves to blame
Why would Brussels back down?

I just came back after a New Year reveillon drink with a few old friends in Paris. We talked for a few minutes about brexit. The French is just as fed up with the EU as us in the UK, it's L'Europe du fric jusqu'à l'écoeurement.
Just like in the UK, people look to blame others for their predicament.
 
  • Agree
  • Like
Reactions: robdon and flecc

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,817
30,381
The French is just as fed up with the EU as us in the UK, it's L'Europe du fric jusqu'à l'écoeurement.
Nicely summed up. I think many Leavers strong anti EU emotions lead them to think everyone feels as strongly about the subject.

The attention span of most of the people in the UK for any political issue is quite short and over two and a half years of brexit has been far too much for most. The longer this goes on, the more they'll disengage.
.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon and Woosh

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,610
12,256
73
Ireland
You seem pretty sure of yourself. Do you have some inside knowledge?
Yes . I listen to what people say. It is very interesting concept, those who say the least sometimes have more to say. I then note what they have said in the past, and were their actions consistent with that. That is why i try not to comment on British Politicians
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

Fingers

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 9, 2016
3,373
1,552
45
Yes . I listen to what people say. It is very interesting concept, those who say the least sometimes have more to say. I then note what they have said in the past, and were their actions consistent with that. That is why i try not to comment on British Politicians

I see. It’s an opinion then.

Have you also noted that on every occasion the EU does a major deal it changes the deal at the 11th hour?

As it were.
 

russ18uk

Pedelecer
Sep 18, 2018
71
23
I don’t think it’s a case of backing down. More a case of working out a sensible deal.
What's a sensible deal to you?

Any other deal than the status quo will be a bad deal as we will have no say in what the EU does. At least when Farage was there he got stuff done (no he didn't - I jest! He barely attended the Fisheries Committee). Like it or loath it, the UK will end up complying with EU laws, deal or no deal. A Norway-style deal will end up being FORCED in Shenghen (we are currently NOT, no matter the BS handed out by the right scaremongers; we just don't enforce our borders), paying more, and having no way to push our agenda.

So about this sensible deal...
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

Fingers

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 9, 2016
3,373
1,552
45
What's a sensible deal to you?

Any other deal than the status quo will be a bad deal as we will have no say in what the EU does. At least when Farage was there he got stuff done (no he didn't - I jest! He barely attended the Fisheries Committee). Like it or loath it, the UK will end up complying with EU laws, deal or no deal. A Norway-style deal will end up being FORCED in Shenghen (we are currently NOT, no matter the BS handed out by the right scaremongers; we just don't enforce our borders), paying more, and having no way to push our agenda.

So about this sensible deal...

I’d keep it simple.

Trade deal not unlike what we have now. Works for both of us. Why change it? I’d have free movement of people but the difference would be that you can’t claim benefits the minute you get off the plane.

EU citizens would be able to work here no problem but the employer would need a work visa. I’d make it straightforward enough but the employer would have to pay a skills tax which would be ploughed back into training and education for UK students and jobseekers.

Security would be a as tight and close as they want. I’m guessing they want it close and tight.

Shared arts and science programs.

Sensible stuff. A new bespoke deal, just for us.
 

Advertisers