Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

The Mail says
"May's red line on migration: Tories agree curb on free movement must be top priority in Brexit talks - as historic photo shows Cabinet meeting inside Chequers war room to thrash out details

What it doesn't say of course is that is most likely to mean that the numbers will either not change or more likely increase as the Government cant control them anyway, and sees them as essential to the economy.

The difference is that they will say the bigger numbers are "essential"
But will the Brexit mob fall for it for long?

 

[trex]

May is more interested in getting a successful conference in a few weeks than negociation. Tough stance on immigration always gets the crowd pumped.
it will be easy later to agree a quota with the EU. The crowd will have forgotten what they were cheering about.

 

[derf]

The Mail says
"May's red line on migration: Tories agree curb on free movement must be top priority in Brexit talks - as historic photo shows Cabinet meeting inside Chequers war room to thrash out details

What it doesn't say of course is that is most likely to mean that the numbers will either not change or more likely increase as the Government cant control them anyway, and sees them as essential to the economy.

The difference is that they will say the bigger numbers are "essential"
But will the Brexit mob fall for it for long?

so far this week its difficult to know what to make of what the exchange rate says. RBS - look all the way down this
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5392-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-house-prices-9822
advisers maintain that the stay in the pounds fall is a blip and that brexit is a slow burn of lower investment and inflation eating into real time wages. But who knows what really happens next? manufacturing received a boost from the lower pound, but structurally this cant be enough to save our bacon.

 

[trex]

the effect on the economy is much more difficult to gauge by the general public because different sectors react differently to the brexit vote. The effect on the UK budget is much less felt thanks to the devaluation of the Pound. Net result: prices going up, businesses are doing same or slightly better. The losers are the poorest consumers and those planning to move abroad. I don't think there are many winners, possibly those planning to buy their first home this year.

 

[oldgroaner]

the effect on the economy is much more difficult to gauge by the general public because different sectors react differently to the brexit vote. The effect on the UK budget is much less felt thanks to the devaluation of the Pound. Net result: prices going up, businesses are doing same or slightly better. The losers are the poorest consumers and those planning to move abroad. I don't think there are many winners, possibly those planning to buy their first home this year.

These results will give the brexit press something to crow about, but are not really significant in the long term, and for the public the price rises are not likely to have much impact, as they have a very short memory for such things.
The real action and reaction await article 50 being invoked.

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[trex]

agreed. Brexit is a mainly an anti-establishment movement which concentrates on failures of governments in general. They don't think of the bigger pictures of what has been achieved: reduced pollution, renewable energy, education, health, consumer protection, scientific research, GMO, poverty etc. It's the rise of the politics of fear, hence their simple solution: build a wall.

 

[oldgroaner]

Good old Express! Nonsense of the day
"
BREAKING: Brexit minister demands tariff-free access to EU
BREXIT minister David Davis has revealed the UK is seeking tariff-free access to the European Union (EU).

Demands? imagine how that is going to go down in the EU.

 

[Kudoscycles]

Good old Express! Nonsense of the day
"
BREAKING: Brexit minister demands tariff-free access to EU
BREXIT minister David Davis has revealed the UK is seeking tariff-free access to the European Union (EU).

Demands? imagine how that is going to go down in the EU.

If David Davis can get us free trade with the EU and a free trade agreement with China and the US then I would vote for Brexit.....yeh!
Bt the way what happened to Boris's 8 billion that was going to help the NHS?
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

If David Davis can get us free trade with the EU and a free trade agreement with China and the US then I would vote for Brexit.....yeh!
Bt the way what happened to Boris's 8 billion that was going to help the NHS?
KudosDave

Spent on his new office, obviously[emoji1]

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[Kudoscycles]

agreed. Brexit is a mainly an anti-establishment movement which concentrates on failures of governments in general. They don't think of the bigger pictures of what has been achieved: reduced pollution, renewable energy, education, health, consumer protection, scientific research, GMO, poverty etc. It's the rise of the politics of fear, hence their simple solution: build a wall.

And get the EU to pay for it! Trump as consultant!
KudosDave

 

[trex]

Good old Express! Nonsense of the day
"
BREAKING: Brexit minister demands tariff-free access to EU
BREXIT minister David Davis has revealed the UK is seeking tariff-free access to the European Union (EU).

Demands? imagine how that is going to go down in the EU.

it may not be far fetched. The devil is in the details. The EU can give the UK tariff free access for its manufactured goods as it has agreed with Canada with little or no concession from the UK.
the passport for our financial services can be separately negotiated at a price.

 

[oldgroaner]

it may not be far fetched. The devil is in the details. The EU can give the UK tariff free access for its manufactured goods as it has agreed with Canada with little or no concession from the UK.
the passport for our financial services can be separately negotiated at a price.

But we would still have to comply with EU law to sell those products and they will want paying for that privilege

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[trex]

the exporting companies will have to follow EU laws to sell into the EU, the rest doesn't. For manufactured goods, I don't think payment into EU will be demanded. For passporting services, the EU would probably ask for a large quota of EU immigrants to be allowed in plus contribution to EU budget.

 

[oldgroaner]

Can anyone explain to me how we can prevent "Freedom of Movement" and then do this?

"On a visit to Belfast on Thursday, Davis vowed there will be “no return to the past” in terms of armed checkpoints and border checks along the UK’s only land frontier with an EU state."

Simultaneously, No Border Checks plus no freedom of Movement
Come on, do tell how this miracle will be achieved.

 

[trex]

the keyword is 'Single Market' - you only have to say that we don't want to join the Single Market but we want to trade on a wide range of goods and services. We want to control our borders but want to give 170,000 work visas a year to EU workers and students can study here visa free.
There will be a lot of words but essentially, everyone can claim it's their victory.
The Pound is recovering now that the picture is clearer.

 

[oldgroaner]

the exporting companies will have to follow EU laws to sell into the EU, the rest doesn't. For manufactured goods, I don't think payment into EU will be demanded. For passporting services, the EU would probably ask for a large quota of EU immigrants to be allowed in plus contribution to EU budget.

But if the rest's goods are incorporated into the goods exported to the EU, they will still need compliance, or exported to countries that have an EU trade agreement why should they buy from us? particularly in the case where the same manufacturer operates inside the EU

 

[anotherkiwi]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area

I thought I had already posted this? Anyway Ireland is an island and doing all the border checks for the UK at its ports and airports. Good way of smuggling goods to and fro...

 

[anotherkiwi]

There will be EU factory inspectors (you'll have to pay for them) ensuring that the majority of the parts used in UK manufactured goods are also manufactured in the UK to have tariff free access. Any boxes with Chinese writing on in the tip behind the factory and you are nicked!

 

[trex]

But if the rest's goods are incorporated into the goods exported to the EU, they will still need compliance, or exported to countries that have an EU trade agreement why should they buy from us? particularly in the case where the same manufacturer operates inside the EU

when you fly to one of the Canaries Islands or the Channel Islands, you effectively are in the future brexit UK. There is no freedom of movement of goods or people. The goods there adhere to EU regulations but the islanders decide on how much VAT to charge. The islanders decide who can work there. The manufacturers will have to comply, the UK may choose to import some or all the EU regulations concerning goods. The issue about the freedom of movement is because it comes as a bundle with freedom of goods, services and capital within the Single Market. When you get out of the Single Market, these freedoms won't be required and should be separately negotiable.

 

[oldgroaner]

when you fly to one of the Canaries Islands or the Channel Islands, you effectively are in the future brexit UK. There is no freedom of movement of goods or people. The goods there adhere to EU regulations but the islanders decide on how much VAT to charge. The islanders decide who can work there. The manufacturers will have to comply, the UK may choose to import some or all the EU regulations concerning goods. The issue about the freedom of movement is because it comes as a bundle with freedom of goods, services and capital within the Single Market. When you get out of the Single Market, these freedoms won't be required and should be separately negotiable.

If the EU want them to be is the fly in the ointment.
Why should they make a special case or us? they may view it that this will encourage others to seek similar arrangements of their own.
They could just as easily just say no.