Brexit, for once some facts.

Kudoscycles

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the government still hasn't got a plan so what else can they say?
official forecasts are gloomy.
I am coming round to thinking they have got a plan,it is probably in line with my points that Boris has let slip,they want all their cakes and expect to get them. But Theresa May is no Maggie Thatcher.
Unless we want another civil war in this country then movement of people must appear to be controlled,the leavers won't be satisfied unless they think they have a victory,so free movement must be stopped....May failed to achieve that as Home Secretary so immigration is important to her,so the single market is out.
With regard to tariffs I think they want a free trade agreement with the EU,no tariffs between the UK and EU,Nissan pretty much ensured that. So we need another way sort of like the Norway model where we will be able to trade tariff free on imports and exports but only on goods largely manufactured in the UK,this will be a nightmare for small businesses exporting to the EU ,every product will have to satisfy 'country of origin' rules to avoid tariffs.
If that is the result it will mean that a lot of products can come into the UK tariff free,so the cheap goods from China and India will get cheaper in the UK,but we won't be able to sell them onto the EU.....it should making goods in the UK more competitive.
It will throw up some interesting options.....bicycles will avoid the 68% duty,alloy wheels will avoid 28% duty,many others.....it will create a problem for Ireland,Northern Ireland will have to be combined with Ireland to avoid a customs border between the north and south.
The South East of England will be very popular with tourists buying non tariff goods across the channel.
KudosDave
 
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anotherkiwi

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Soon we will know if the French are as stupid as brexiters/trumpists. Not holding my breath or offering any predictions. Voting today is for the right wing candidate for the presidency next year.

Le Pen is basing her chances on the fear that France will be over run by 7.5% of the population (Muslims). She wants out of both the EU and the Euro which is an even better economic policy that your brexit guys have, French flair means shooting yourself in both feet at the same time and then marching forward, not just the one foot! If that isn't political one-up-man-ship I don't know what is...

She will be opposed to the winner of today's vote, the Socialists don't have a chance next year unless hell freezes over this winter.
 

derf

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I am coming round to thinking they have got a plan,it is probably in line with my points that Boris has let slip,they want all their cakes and expect to get them. But Theresa May is no Maggie Thatcher.
Unless we want another civil war in this country then movement of people must appear to be controlled,the leavers won't be satisfied unless they think they have a victory,so free movement must be stopped....May failed to achieve that as Home Secretary so immigration is important to her,so the single market is out.
With regard to tariffs I think they want a free trade agreement with the EU,no tariffs between the UK and EU,Nissan pretty much ensured that. So we need another way sort of like the Norway model where we will be able to trade tariff free on imports and exports but only on goods largely manufactured in the UK,this will be a nightmare for small businesses exporting to the EU ,every product will have to satisfy 'country of origin' rules to avoid tariffs.
If that is the result it will mean that a lot of products can come into the UK tariff free,so the cheap goods from China and India will get cheaper in the UK,but we won't be able to sell them onto the EU.....it should making goods in the UK more competitive.
It will throw up some interesting options.....bicycles will avoid the 68% duty,alloy wheels will avoid 28% duty,many others.....it will create a problem for Ireland,Northern Ireland will have to be combined with Ireland to avoid a customs border between the north and south.
The South East of England will be very popular with tourists buying non tariff goods across the channel.
KudosDave
this is an almost complete tangent, but I was chatting to a friend about a significant article in political science by a guy called francis fukuyama ("the end of history") which hypothesised back in the 1990's that it was the end of ideology in the world, that we'd all become happy consumers in the American mould and live happily ever after. which significantly isn't what happened or what is happening, instead regressive ideology is rapidly becoming I think the trigger for the next big crisis. we were chatting about the way we tend to think the 1930's cannot repeat itself, which is of course completely false, it not only can, it must, given that its what history has always done. it came to mind as you described the fear of civil war in the uk, so to speak. the brexiters want something that not only does not exist, but can not (some kid of telletubby world in which they get spoilt like brats by the world forever while not being required to do anything). much like the right wing in france, who have grown accustomed to levels of benefit the average uk citizen couldn't comprehend.I suspect the coming crisis cannot be averted.
 

Kudoscycles

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The more I think about my idea of May,s plan,see today 12.31,the more political sense it makes....,
May could say we have no tariff barriers with the world so goods would come into the UK cheaper,helping poorer people.
May could say that as long as we produce the goods in the UK then we could sell them tariff free into Europe,helping our own UK manufacturing base.
May could say that by leaving the single market but staying in our special deal we could control movement of people.
Politically it ticks a lot of boxes but....
The U.K. Is a big on-seller,we buy lots of product from China and India,add value to the product and sell into the EU,the EU would put high tariffs on these products....these tariffs would be based upon our selling prices not our cost prices so these goods would be very expensive,maybe uncompetitive,when sold into Europe.
Proving the 'source of origin' of products would make a lot of work for companies wishing to export to the EU,we may lose a lot of business into the EU when the products are Asian sourced.
KudosDave
 
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oldgroaner

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The more I think about my idea of May,s plan,see today 12.31,the more political sense it makes....,
May could say we have no tariff barriers with the world so goods would come into the UK cheaper,helping poorer people.
May could say that as long as we produce the goods in the UK then we could sell them tariff free into Europe,helping our own UK manufacturing base.
May could say that by leaving the single market but staying in our special deal we could control movement of people.
Politically it ticks a lot of boxes but....
The U.K. Is a big on-seller,we buy lots of product from China and India,add value to the product and sell into the EU,the EU would put high tariffs on these products....these tariffs would be based upon our selling prices not our cost prices so these goods would be very expensive,maybe uncompetitive,when sold into Europe.
Proving the 'source of origin' of products would make a lot of work for companies wishing to export to the EU,we may lose a lot of business into the EU when the products are Asian sourced.
KudosDave
The problem of course is that Mrs May is in no position to expect to get her own way.
We are completely at the mercy of the EU, and have the bargaining power of an unarmed person surrounded on all sides with 27 angry people packing large guns loaded for Bear.
And fielding three of the most inept politicians in living memory as seconds to this duel.
The EU negotiators will give us the opportunity to leave, with their best wishes and return on their very much less favourable terms if and when sanity returns to this country.
They will then breathe a heartfelt sigh of relief that a long standing problem has solved itself.
 
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Kudoscycles

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The problem of course is that Mrs May is in no position to expect to get here own way.
We are completely at the mercy of the EU, and have the bargaining power of an unarmed person surrounded on all sides with 27 angry people packing large guns loaded for Bear.
And fielding three of the most inept politicians in living memory as seconds to this duel.
The EU negotiators will give us the opportunity to leave, with their best wishes and return on their very much less favourable terms if and when sanity returns to this country.
They will then breathe a heartfelt sigh of relief that a long standing problem has solved itself.
From the EU side this would have a lot of advantages...the German auto industry would have no tariffs into the UK and the deal would make it very difficult for those products that we source from the rest of the world to be competitively sold into Europe.
We would end up a very inward looking trading country unless we can explore new trading possibilities with the rest of the world remote from the EU.
I think we would lose out because we buy a lot from Asia that we sell to Europe but May could easily put political spin on such an arrangement to satisfy the leavers.
I suspect larger companies would set up distribution depots on mainland Europe to avoid the tariffs.
UK manufacturing should have a boost as traders look to buying in the UK to establish 'made in U.K.' sourcing,that is assuming that we have the capacity to take advantage of the need.
Time will tell but I cannot see any other outcome that comes close to ticking all the boxes for everyone.
KudosDave
 
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oldgroaner

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UK manufacturing should have a boost as traders look to buying in the UK to establish 'made in U.K.' sourcing said:
Why would anyone be impressed with "made in UK"?
That sort of thing was tried before and achieved zilch.
And where will capacity to competitively manufacture come from?
It would take a very brave or foolish investor to come here if we lose the EU connection.
Finally I really cannot see any deal she may strike as being acceptable to the voters who wish to remain in the EU.
There is simply no reason to assume any advantage can be gained when leaving to offset the all too obvious and dangerous dangers involved.
It is simply a case of National Self harm committed because of fear of a violent reaction .
Quite frankly it would be better to face that reaction now, rather than later when the awful consequences of bowing to it become reality, an ALL the population are angry and disappointed.
The reaction then will be "The Government knew the referendum was only advisory, why didn't they stand up for what was right and refuse to go ahead with this disaster?"
Why else would Boris be trying so desperately to get himself the sack?
 
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derf

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The problem of course is that Mrs May is in no position to expect to get her own way.
We are completely at the mercy of the EU, and have the bargaining power of an unarmed person surrounded on all sides with 27 angry people packing large guns loaded for Bear.
And fielding three of the most inept politicians in living memory as seconds to this duel.
The EU negotiators will give us the opportunity to leave, with their best wishes and return on their very much less favourable terms if and when sanity returns to this country.
They will then breathe a heartfelt sigh of relief that a long standing problem has solved itself.
though I can imagine they may well feel their dealing with a gormless adolescent, when there is a suggestion of hard brexit, mail online says the eu is trying to scapegoat uk
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3954004/EU-leaders-threaten-UK-hard-Brexit-fears-weakness-empower-Marine-Le-Pen-spell-end-Union.html
when anyone suggest soft brexit, they're threatened with violence by that selfless chap farage
 
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oldgroaner

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From youGov
Includes a graphic showing how close the leave and remain camps have become by 12th October
https://www.graphiq.com/vlp/l3Cl1Yprbcp

Only 1% more in favour of Remain, assuming it has any relevance.
Clearly the Campaign to promote Breit has not had the impact the press intended, but equally clearly Brexit voters will need to suffer significant damage before they have a mass change of heart.
 
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oldgroaner

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From the Daily Mail
"
'Stop this endless pessimism!' Tory MPs blast Chancellor Philip Hammond after he warns of rising inflation, slower growth and 'eye-watering debt' in latest doom-laden Brexit warning
  • Hammond says 'it’s clear inflation is back' as he warns about weak pound
  • Warns of 'eye-wateringly large debt' amid reports of £100bn black hole in public finances
  • Says public finances face a 'sharp challenge' ahead of EU divorce process
  • But ex-minister Dominic Raab condemns Hammond over further self-harming warnings
It seems that telling the truth is verboten is you want to be Chancellor of the Exchequer.
 
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oldgroaner

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I wonder if Breit voters ever ponder this conundrum
The headlines in the Express thunder "EU threatens us with a Hard Brexit"
Yet 70 Tory Mps threaten us with the same thing?
Why I wonder? who is paying them to support the EU decision?

But then the question is,
Do they ever give the matter any thought at all?
 
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oldgroaner

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From the Guardian
"Support for the EU on the rise all over Europe and in the UKhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/21/support-for-the-eu-on-the-rise-since-brexit-vote-even-in-the-uk
"But the Bertelsmann survey, completed in August against a backdrop of confusion about the British government’s Brexit strategy, showed that 56% of British citizens wanted to stay in the EU, compared with 49% when a similar survey was conducted in March."

The problem with survey is that they no longer have any credibility, do they?
On the one hand the UGov survey showed only a 1% change, wheres the Bertlesman survey put the change at 8%!
 

derf

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From the Daily Mail
"
'Stop this endless pessimism!' Tory MPs blast Chancellor Philip Hammond after he warns of rising inflation, slower growth and 'eye-watering debt' in latest doom-laden Brexit warning
  • Hammond says 'it’s clear inflation is back' as he warns about weak pound
  • Warns of 'eye-wateringly large debt' amid reports of £100bn black hole in public finances
  • Says public finances face a 'sharp challenge' ahead of EU divorce process
  • But ex-minister Dominic Raab condemns Hammond over further self-harming warnings
It seems that telling the truth is verboten is you want to be Chancellor of the Exchequer.
and finally may is realising its up the creek without a paddle as well
https://www.ft.com/content/5922b3ba-afce-11e6-a37c-f4a01f1b0fa1
one needs to suspend any schadenfreude, gloating - this is after all the captain of the titanic finally extracting her snout from the dessert and muttering something about an iceberg.
 

derf

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Paid access only... any chance of posting a snippet?
May open to transitional deal to avoid ‘cliff edge’ Brexit


Prime minister seeks to calm business fears over damaging exit from EU

Is Hammond too gloomy about Brexit? [/paste:font]24 minutes ago
Theresa May addresses the CBI conference on Monday © EPA
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by: Jim Pickard and George Parker

Theresa May has told business leaders she is open to striking a transitional deal on leaving the EU rather than a “cliff edge” Brexit that could damage the UK economy.

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Speaking to the CBI employers’ group conference on Monday, the prime minister also backed away from one of her pledges on corporate governance, saying she would not make it mandatory to have workers sitting on company boards.

Fears of a “cliff edge” Brexit have been raised repeatedly by business leaders, who want an interim deal to let them keep trading as before once the UK has left the EU. Paul Drechsler, president of the CBI, who spoke just before Mrs May, warned that companies could find themselves stranded in a regulatory no-man’s-land on the day after Brexit.


“For many firms it’s not about a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit, but a ‘smooth’ Brexit, which avoids these cliff edge problems,” he told delegates. They feared a sudden and overnight transformation in their trading conditions, he added.

Mrs May indicated she was responsive to such calls. “People don’t want a cliff edge, they want to know how things are going to go forward,” she said during a question-and-answer session after her speech.

The prime minister’s spokeswoman said Mrs May was “reflecting views that she has already expressed about how we seek the best deal for the UK and provide certainty for people and businesses”.

In her speech in Mayfair, the prime minister set out the terms of a new “grand bargain” with business, where the government invests to boost productivity and cuts corporation tax in exchange for help in tackling the worst excesses of capitalism.

For many firms it’s not about a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit, but a ‘smooth’ Brexit, which avoids these cliff edge problems

Paul Drechsler, CBI president
The various carrots for business will include a real-terms increase in government spending on research and development, a new Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and a review of the R&D credit to make it more effective.


At the same time the prime minister said she was still committed to establishing the best corporate governance of any major economy in the world and stopping executives from “gaming the system”.

“We all know that in recent years the reputation of business as a whole has been bruised. Trust in business runs at just 35 per cent among those in the lowest income brackets,” she said. “The behaviour of a limited few has damaged the reputation of the many. And fair or not, it is clear that something has to change.”

When Mrs May entered Number 10 she set out plans to shake up Britain’s boards, including binding annual votes on executive pay and the publication of pay ratios between the highest and lowest paid.

All of this will still be laid out in a green paper later in the year, she told the employers’ group on Monday morning, as part of an attempt to shake up a business community “bruised” by the actions of an irresponsible minority.

Yet on one of the most contentious points — workers on boards — she has now publicly backtracked, saying the policy will stop short of the direct appointment of workers or trade union representatives on boards.

The plan was set out in the summer and repeated as recently as October when Mrs May said she wanted “not just consumers represented on company boards but workers as well”. But several cabinet ministers, including Greg Clark, business secretary, were hostile towards the proposals, while company executives saw it as an unwelcome imposition at an already fraught time.

On Monday Mrs May finally ruled out direct representation and also said there would not be German-style binary boards: “Our unitary board system has served us well and will continue to do so,” she said. Instead, workers’ voices would be heard through other less contentious routes, such as advisory councils or panels.

Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI director-general, said businesses recognised the public’s concerns, adding that the challenge “is to take the great practice that we see in so many places and apply it everywhere, eradicating the unacceptable transgressions that some companies do make”.

Ms Fairbairn also welcomed Mrs May’s comments on a transitional EU deal. “With only two years for such a complex negotiation, the government rightly has on its radar that we should seek a smooth transition which gives firms time to adapt,” she said.

Earlier the prime minister had proposed in the FT a pact with corporate Britain to work together to defend capitalism, free markets and free trade from populist attacks. She promised to support business with a new industrial strategy that would include an extra £2bn a year by 2020 to support research and development. Mrs May said she wanted the UK to become the world’s “go-to place for scientists, innovators and tech investors”.

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, will present his first Autumn Statement this week and will announce more investment in road improvements, while Mrs May told the CBI that the government would support innovation through the tax system and deliver the “lowest corporation rate in the G20”.

Corporation tax is already due to come down to 17 per cent in 2020 — the lowest rate in the G20 — but Mrs May’s allies said Britain could drop the rate to 15 per cent if Donald Trump fulfilled his promise to cut US business tax to that level.

 
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After lots of correspondence with our Labour MP (he voted remain, but the area voted leave) we got this reply today.

"Since our last correspondence, I was delighted to hear that the High Court judges voted to uphold Parliamentary sovereignty, and enable Parliamentarians to vote on the triggering of Article 50.

I do not believe that my constituents that voted to leave the European Union signed a blank cheque, and therefore I will be looking very closely at the Government’s negotiating position. I am yet to be convinced that the conditions for negotiating to leave the EU are optimal, and the long-term effects are in the best interests of my constituents. I will need to be persuaded before I will vote to trigger Article 50."

So it looks like he needs to be persuaded that its in our best interests to leave. Which bearing in mind it wasn't in June, I find hard to believe anyone would now think it was. Hopefully you're all putting your case to your MPs and not just talking on here.
 
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oldgroaner

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oldgroaner

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May open to transitional deal to avoid ‘cliff edge’ Brexit
Mrs May indicated she was responsive to such calls. “People don’t want a cliff edge, they want to know how things are going to go forward,” she said during a question-and-answer session after her speech.

It should be interesting to see how well this goes down with the Brexit hard core of Kamikaze pilots!
The very best of British Luck with them!
 

oldgroaner

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It is worth noting that the CBI once all supreme, now only represents a quarter of businesses, the rest are foreign owned,

In their position I would feel a little miffed at being targetted for such a comment as
""The behaviour of a limited few has damaged the reputation of the many. And fair or not, it is clear that something has to change."
And for her to say this without blushing, and no doubt hoping someone doesn't pipe up and ask if she is in fact referring to the actions of her Government and it's predecessors?"
Is an Historical example of BS to rank with the best of them.
After all the "Few" Tory politicians have managed to damage the reputation of
Not merely Parliament, but the entire nation world wide, and among them Cameron and Boris stand out as worthy of special mention, though she is catching up very fast.
 

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