Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

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Ursula von der Leyen says EU has reached Covid vaccine target
Commission president says EU has delivered enough vaccine to inoculate 70% of adults in the bloc
 
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oldgroaner

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Why are they doing it?

It's the needs of the economy.

They can no longer afford to pay people not to work.

They've had to stop the Universal Credit boost they applied for the pandemic.

They have to get productivity back up to full tilt.

So they need to convince people that going back to normal is safe enough and their income support cuts are appropriate. That these are not true is irrelevant when they have no other choice due to the country going broke.
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The problem then, is where is what is produced going to be sold
(apart from to ourselves)
 

oldgroaner

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I think the government should decriminalise murder. They would of course not condone it, but leave it to the common sense of the people not to commit it. To set an example they personally would refrain from murdering people (except sometimes they might just slip up on that).
But only about >100,000 times
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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I think the government should decriminalise murder. They would of course not condone it, but leave it to the common sense of the people not to commit it.
Seems like as good idea, we've virtually decriminalised most other crimes. The police clear up rate across all crimes is 8%, meaning that 92% of all crime goes unpunished. Furthermore much of the crime that does get cleared up is effectively crime they've invented. For one example, sex crimes from so long ago by those who are now geriatics that if they were any other sort of crime would be unprosecutable due to statutes of limitations. For a second example, enthusiastically searching for signs of cannabis at every opportunity in order to issue another ticket.

This rather calls into question why we bother to have a large police force. Indeed a study some while ago concluded that the police make no difference to crime levels since crimes were as high a rate as they could be anyway, with or without policing. We could cut our costs of dealing with crime by just having a smaller police force to protect vulnerable citizens from violence, leaving the public to protect themselves from all other crime such as theft, which is largely what is happening now anyway.
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flecc

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The problem then, is where is what is produced going to be sold
(apart from to ourselves)
There's always someone if the price is right, we just need to get more money coming in and less going out.

Covid or no Covid, we cannot live permanently on borrowing.
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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I suspect we can.
Just like with CO2 levels and pollution.
Not if we've got any sense.

I meant rising borrowing. The higher it goes, the higher the interest rate climbs as our credit rating falls. We're paying 2.69% on approaching two trillion now, 48 billions a year, 8% of all the government's tax income.

These cannot go up indefinitely. I remember those who reached over 10% interest rates and that would bankrupt us on our huge debt. Beyond a certain point there's no way out, Mexico being an example of permanent poverty after having to pay 14% to borrow at one time.
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jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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Not if we've got any sense.

I meant rising borrowing. The higher it goes, the higher the interest rate climbs as our credit rating falls. We're paying 2.69% on approaching two trillion now, 48 billions a year, 8% of all the government's tax income.

These cannot go up indefinitely. I remember those who reached over 10% interest rates and that would bankrupt us on our huge debt. Beyond a certain point there's no way out, Mexico being an example of permanent poverty after having to pay 14% to borrow at one time.
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I agree about interest rates and national debt (we deferred a crash after 08 with qe and low interest rates that will happen at some point. But moderate social distancing and mask wearing doesnt involve expense as such. And can prevent complete lockdowns (following on from unwise too far opening up) that does. We can do without pubs and Starbucks and don't have to remain an economy of overpriced coffee and money laundering forever.
 

Woosh

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Not if we've got any sense.

I meant rising borrowing. The higher it goes, the higher the interest rate climbs as our credit rating falls. We're paying 2.69% on approaching two trillion now, 48 billions a year, 8% of all the government's tax income.

These cannot go up indefinitely. I remember those who reached over 10% interest rates and that would bankrupt us on our huge debt. Beyond a certain point there's no way out, Mexico being an example of permanent poverty after having to pay 14% to borrow at one time.
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I think foreign investors did not buy much of our Treasury bonds recently, so the BoE had to take them on by buying back from the banks (Quantitative Easing). Most of the last 18 month deficit was bought by BoE.

Quantitative easing:
2009: 200 billion pounds.
2012: 375b
2016: 445b
March 2020: 645b
June 2020: 745b
Nov 2020: 895b

Eventually, imports will have to be paid with something other than London properties or drug money.
 

Jesus H Christ

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Dec 31, 2020
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Not if we've got any sense.

I meant rising borrowing. The higher it goes, the higher the interest rate climbs as our credit rating falls. We're paying 2.69% on approaching two trillion now, 48 billions a year, 8% of all the government's tax income.

These cannot go up indefinitely. I remember those who reached over 10% interest rates and that would bankrupt us on our huge debt. Beyond a certain point there's no way out, Mexico being an example of permanent poverty after having to pay 14% to borrow at one time.
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This sounds exciting.
 

Jesus H Christ

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Dec 31, 2020
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Looking at the hospitalisation data, the profile of the curve seems exactly the same as with the two previous COVID surges. The vaccine appears to have added to the delay between infection and going into hospital, but ultimately, things look to be heading in the same direction as before.
 
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oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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Javid told the Sunday Telegraph:​
What shocked me the most is when I was told that the waiting list is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.​

It’s gone up from 3.5 million to 5.3 million as of today, and I said to the officials, so what do you mean ‘a lot worse’, thinking maybe it goes from 5.3 million to six million, seven million. They said no, it’s going to go up by millions... it could go as high as 13 million.​

Hearing that figure of 13 million, it has absolutely focused my mind, and it’s going to be one of my top priorities to deal with because we can’t have that.​

Until that moment his mind was unfocussed and the waiting list wasn't going to be a top priority.

To think that he had no idea of this before being made Health Secretary! Obviously qualified him for the job. I suspect pretty much every single contributor here understood there is almost certain to be a massive increase.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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There's always someone if the price is right, we just need to get more money coming in and less going out.

Covid or no Covid, we cannot live permanently on borrowing.
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And yet we do don't we?
And relied previously on running a betting shop to cook the books
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,457
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80
Javid told the Sunday Telegraph:​
What shocked me the most is when I was told that the waiting list is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.​

It’s gone up from 3.5 million to 5.3 million as of today, and I said to the officials, so what do you mean ‘a lot worse’, thinking maybe it goes from 5.3 million to six million, seven million. They said no, it’s going to go up by millions... it could go as high as 13 million.​

Hearing that figure of 13 million, it has absolutely focused my mind, and it’s going to be one of my top priorities to deal with because we can’t have that.​

Until that moment his mind was unfocussed and the waiting list wasn't going to be a top priority.

To think that he had no idea of this before being made Health Secretary! Obviously qualified him for the job. I suspect pretty much every single contributor here understood there is almost certain to be a massive increase.
I have a cunning plan, Captain said Baldrick

Why not make an Undertaker the Health Secretary and cut out the middle men?
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
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West West Wales
I have a cunning plan, Captain said Baldrick

Why not make an Undertaker the Health Secretary and cut out the middle men?
They have failed in that area as well. We should have seen extra crem capacity and JCB grave diggers. Obviously an ideal use of BEV technology so they can keep digging through what is left of funeral services.
 

Nev

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May 1, 2018
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I watched Zahawi on the Marr prog this morning, there was a definite difference in tone from him than what we saw the other day from Jenrik when he said he couldn't wait to get rid of his mask. Zahawi said mask wearing in busy public places would be expected. More details here.
Nadhim Zahawi says mask wearing will be ‘expected’ after 19 July | Coronavirus | The Guardian

David Spiegelhalter was on the same show and he said he though it was quite likely we would be seeing 2.5k covid hospital admissions a day shortly.

As JHC posted recently this all has a very familiar ring to it, the same things were happening before lockdown 1 and lockdown 2.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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They have failed in that area as well. We should have seen extra crem capacity and JCB grave diggers.
Already happening. In very early 2020 there was an application to build a big new crematorium and chapel with extensive car parking and a memorial garden in a very large field by the edge of our nature reserve. It was fiercely opposed by many local residents but for certain reasons, I and others connected with the nature reserve strongly supported it. However Tandridge Council refused planning permission in the end.

As for JCBs, many cemetaries use mini-diggers for grave digging these days, quick and efficient without being costly.

Cremations without services for those who just wish their bodies to be cremated without any ceremony are commonly dealt with separately. For example the applicant in this case was planning those to be carried out between 7am and 10am each day, thus keeping the unmarked body carrying vans separated from the hearses and limousines arriving in the later hours for their funeral ceremonies.
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