Brexit, for once some facts.

jonathan.agnew

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Even the virus which causes AIDS, is less deadly than it used to be, typically taking about 10 years now to kill the host instead of 12. Highly infectious coronaviruses have a much higher probability of random mutations occurring, I think it's likely that the deadlier ones will mostly die with their hosts. From news I've seen thus far - Omicron at least, doesn't seem to be deadlier, merely more infectious. But you're right... anything can happen - I was being hopeful, which is why I said "Whether rational or not", and "generalising here". Progessions of various elements of pandemics, look like (or are represented later as) differential equations... and those can look very bizarre indeed.
It's not clear, but this doesn't look great
"COVID-19: Emerging picture from South Africa suggests Omicron variant could be real cause for concern | Science & Tech News | Sky News" https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emerging-picture-from-south-africa-suggests-omicron-variant-could-be-real-cause-for-concern-12484064
 

Nev

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Is there a proposed reason for this?
He released another video today with a possible explanation, someone has been in touch with him from SA saying that the very high level of HIV in the population could have something to do with it. They have over 20% we about 0.2% some people think they could actually be closer to 40% of their adult population having HIV.

I think it shows how difficult it is to say compare what is happening in one country with another without knowing something about the country. I had no idea their HIV rate was over 100 times and perhaps 200 times higher than ours.

JC is still hopeful that the new variant maybe less dangerous than delta and might mean the end of the pandemic in a few months time but as Oyster pointed out we need to wait until we have far more data before we know if this is the case or not.
 
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oyster

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Is anyone surprised?

In 2014, when David Cameron was prime minister, 48% of voters believed politicians were “out merely for themselves” as opposed to their country or party. This had increased to 57% by May 2021 after nearly two years of Johnson in No 10, and leapt to 63% last week in the wake of the Paterson affair. In the same poll, just 5% of voters thought politicians were in the job primarily for the good of their country.

I actually do believe that some put in enormous effort and are squeaky clean. But that is so overwhelmed by real and or perceived questionable to appalling behaviour, we are where we are.
 
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jonathan.agnew

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He released another video today with a possible explanation, someone has been in touch with him from SA saying that the very high level of HIV in the population could have something to do with it. They have over 20% we about 0.2% some people think they could actually be closer to 40% of their adult population having HIV.

I think it shows how difficult it is to say compare what is happening in one country with another without knowing something about the country. I had no idea their HIV rate was over 100 times and perhaps 200 times higher than ours.

JC is still hopeful that the new variant maybe less dangerous than delta and might mean the end of the pandemic in a few months time but as Oyster pointed out we need to wait until we have far more data before we know if this is the case or not.
I'm no virologist, but cannot see where the evolutionary pressure would come from to make it less virulent? Can see the pressure for it to become more transmissible (obviously as it competes with variants of itself in an increasingly immune reality). But it's not as if it has to increase its window for infection and keep hosts alive (like say the myxoma in Australian rabbits)?
 
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guerney

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It's not clear, but this doesn't look great
"COVID-19: Emerging picture from South Africa suggests Omicron variant could be real cause for concern | Science & Tech News | Sky News" https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emerging-picture-from-south-africa-suggests-omicron-variant-could-be-real-cause-for-concern-12484064
Bypassing existing immunity to other variants, will lead to more chance of random mutations... so from the virus's "Point of view" (no it doesn't have one), it's a great move, which I believe (as one of the billions of newly minted virologists the world is suddenly full of, and Susan from Facefsck [no they don't all believe the following]), will increase the likelihood of a variant we'll all eventually live with - like this one (IMHO, another coronavirus epidemic):

(link:) great, yet another damned flaw with this website - : and ) make smileys, no matter what the context. Useless. I'd offer to recode it, but this site's operators couldn't afford me.


We can't be sure unless we dig up someone who died from it, from permafrost.
 
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guerney

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I'm no virologist, but cannot see where the evolutionary pressure would come from to make it less virulent? Can see the pressure for it to become more transmissible (obviously as it competes with variants of itself in an increasingly immune reality). But it's not as if it has to increase its window for infection and keep hosts alive (like say the myxoma in Australian rabbits)?
For me, that leads to the question: Do we live in a universe hostile to life?
 

guerney

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Is anyone surprised?

In 2014, when David Cameron was prime minister, 48% of voters believed politicians were “out merely for themselves” as opposed to their country or party. This had increased to 57% by May 2021 after nearly two years of Johnson in No 10, and leapt to 63% last week in the wake of the Paterson affair. In the same poll, just 5% of voters thought politicians were in the job primarily for the good of their country.

I actually do believe that some put in enormous effort and are squeaky clean. But that is so overwhelmed by real and or perceived questionable to appalling behaviour, we are where we are.
At the next election, will the voting public choose sleazy or financially incompetent? I'm certain the Tories will bring up 2008 repeatedly, as part of their mudslinging media kit.
 

oyster

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At the next election, will the voting public choose sleazy or financially incompetent? I'm certain the Tories will bring up 2008 repeatedly, as part of their mudslinging media kit.
Have the tories demonstrated even slightly greater competence (other than where they stand to make out of their decisions/actions)?

Could be a dangerous approach. There is little that has been done by the coalition or the tories since then to help even marginally to prevent more r less the same thing happening again.
 
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guerney

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Have the tories demonstrated even slightly greater competence (other than where they stand to make out of their decisions/actions)?

Could be a dangerous approach. There is little that has been done by the coalition or the tories since then to help even marginally to prevent more r less the same thing happening again.
Yes the banks are almost as vulnerable as before, but facts won't matter as election nears: Any divisions you see now between the Tories and the right wing press will evaporate and you can bet they'll all be on message, plus they'll use their coffers filled by their many wealthy donors to power their social media propaganda engine so that wavering voters fall away from voting entirely, or vote for them... all while Labour slowly crawl back to the middle ground dragging token hard lefties with them, with comparatively little financial support (Unite has left, to support lefty causes elsewhere). There will have to be a seismic disaster for the Tories right now, for me to lose my bet at Ladbrokes. They'll lower taxes nearer the election (they're talking about doing that now, which is worrying), gambling that people will vote out of self interest... and the middle class, rich, wannabe rich and/or middleclass or die trying, and old, will vote them in again. I'll vote Labour regardless, as I always do... for all the good that'll do me or anyone else.
 
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guerney

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...and that's quite enough from me, again - I'm off to source a 1000W amp which can cope with 3ohms.
 

oyster

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And Johnson has jumped onto "Little Arthur". And the Covid inquiry has not yet started - so has not turned up any more crap. And they are going to be claiming wonders for the Covid pill(s). (Sure as hell, I hope I don't end up having to decide whether or not to take them. I am deeply sceptical about any push for them to be available by Christmas.)
 
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jonathan.agnew

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Yes the banks are almost as vulnerable as before, but facts won't matter as election nears: Any divisions you see now between the Tories and the right wing press will evaporate and you can bet they'll all be on message, plus they'll use their coffers filled by their many wealthy donors to power their social media propaganda engine so that wavering voters fall away from voting entirely, or vote for them... all while Labour slowly crawl back to the middle ground dragging token hard lefties with them, with comparatively little financial support (Unite has left, to support lefty causes elsewhere). There will have to be a seismic disaster for the Tories right now, for me to lose my bet at Ladbrokes. They'll lower taxes nearer the election (they're talking about doing that now, which is worrying), gambling that people will vote out of self interest... and the middle class, rich, wannabe rich and/or middleclass or die trying, and old, will vote them in again. I'll vote Labour regardless, as I always do... for all the good that'll do me or anyone else.
All very true (through gritted teeth as a labour voter too)...unless there's a few more lockdowns and consumers keep spending on goods instead of services (all those heated gloves and stuff instead of eating out and going to starbucks). Then inflation will stay high, above 5% for more than two years (shipping bottlenecks, energy and computer chips and all the goods that rely on them in short supply - as a result of goods instead of service based consumption - and as overpriced as the latest graphics cards). That will make for an economic implosion (skyrocketing interest on govt debt, interest on mortgages, housing market collapse) that will make black Wednesday look rosy. Don't wish any of this, but it's becoming ever more likely.
 
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soundwave

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All very true (through gritted teeth as a labour voter too)...unless there's a few more lockdowns and consumers keep spending on goods instead of services (all those heated gloves and stuff instead of eating out and going to starbucks). Then inflation will stay high, above 5% for more than two years (shipping bottlenecks, energy and computer chips and all the goods that rely on them in short supply - as a result of goods instead of service based consumption - and as overpriced as the latest graphics cards). That will make for an economic implosion (skyrocketing interest on govt debt, interest on mortgages, housing market collapse) that will make black Wednesday look rosy. Don't wish any of this, but it's becoming ever more likely.

A source told The Sun: "The guy said he found the shell when he was having a clear out of his stuff.

"He said he put it on the floor then he slipped and fell on it — and it went up his a***."

:eek:
 

guerney

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A source told The Sun: "The guy said he found the shell when he was having a clear out of his stuff.

"He said he put it on the floor then he slipped and fell on it — and it went up his a***."

:eek:

He was desperately trying to cure:




"90 percent of Covid sufferers requiring the most specialist care are unvaccinated"


 
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guerney

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All very true (through gritted teeth as a labour voter too)...unless there's a few more lockdowns and consumers keep spending on goods instead of services (all those heated gloves and stuff instead of eating out and going to starbucks). Then inflation will stay high, above 5% for more than two years (shipping bottlenecks, energy and computer chips and all the goods that rely on them in short supply - as a result of goods instead of service based consumption - and as overpriced as the latest graphics cards). That will make for an economic implosion (skyrocketing interest on govt debt, interest on mortgages, housing market collapse) that will make black Wednesday look rosy. Don't wish any of this, but it's becoming ever more likely.
The UK economy is mostly service industry based - of course, we don't manufacture much here without needing components shipped from elsewhere. They'll keep shaking the magic money printing tree until it devalues the Pound too much. Increasingly, we do seem to be teetering on the edge of an abyss. As the pandemic hit last year, people flocked to Gold and other "Safe" havens, and Bitcoin, which is a nasty disaster waiting to happen, but probably not soon.
 

guerney

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And Johnson has jumped onto "Little Arthur". And the Covid inquiry has not yet started - so has not turned up any more crap. And they are going to be claiming wonders for the Covid pill(s). (Sure as hell, I hope I don't end up having to decide whether or not to take them. I am deeply sceptical about any push for them to be available by Christmas.)
Something called Peppa Pig was the major important media message for our times, prior to Omicron. I bet that even as we squeak, the Tories are deliberating over the timing of the snap election - I think it'll happen well before the Covid Inquiry reports back. They might gain a "Bounce", if the pills don't kill everyone. Labour are still in bad shape, too much in transition, not much of an opposition - Herr Starmer has been playing it safe, I can see why, but doing so carries the disadvantage of the public not knowing very much about what Labour stands for these days. People mostly vote for, not against parties. I don't usually discuss politics, because all that most of us can actually do, to effect change, is turn up to make a mark on a piece of paper. Discussing it seems a bit futile, and my opinions are mostly set in stone (nothing like Miliband's monolith). I think I'm well past the age when lefties suddenly turn rabid Tory. Someone with Union connections approached me once about 10 years ago, wanting to put me forward as a candidate. My life was far too busy. Looks like a lot of work, if you want to make a good job of it. I'm not tall enough anyway - ideally (historically) you need to be significantly taller than average to win, which rules that vapourous, devoid of personality, easily programmed, grinning midget android puppet nerd sneaky Sunak out. (Apologies to any short or overly-minuscule people present).
 
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