Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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It would be good if true, but this is wishful thinking. Only a very small proportion might just shift, but most of those I listed have very long established positions and are unlikely to change.
the majority is very much on the side of Ukraine. About 140 countries voted in the UN against Russia.
Over time, the images of the atrocities will spread and only increase the perception that the Russians acted without just cause.
 

flecc

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the majority is very much on the side of Ukraine. About 140 countries voted in the UN against Russia.
Agreed, but many of those countries are small, often tiny. China and India wont shift and being just short of 2.8 billion they are a third of the world population.

And do you really see North Korea, Iran or Kazakhstan* shifting?

* According to a survey conducted by the Central Asia Barometer, 87% of Kazakhs have a favorable view of Russia, with 8% holding an unfavorable view. The survey also found that 88 percent support closer relations with Russia, compared to 6 percent who do not.
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Woosh

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* According to a survey conducted by the Central Asia Barometer, 87% of Kazakhs have a favorable view of Russia, with 8% holding an unfavorable view. The survey also found that 88 percent support closer relations with Russia, compared to 6 percent who do not.
that's probably due to proximity.
China and India wont shift and being just short of 2.8 billion they are a third of the world population.
Both might, when oil and gas price comes down.
They have a golden opportunity to buy Russian oil and gas at a discount at the moment.
 
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Danidl

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Trouble is that its not the World, it's only Western propaganda that the whole world is against Russia with this war, its very far from true.

China and India are standing with Russia and they are a third of the world's population.

Now add Turkey sitting on the fence and Erdogan pals with Putin. 18 of the 23 African nations refusing to condemn Russia over this war and many South American nations pro Russia due to their anti USA stance.

Chuck in Iran, Syria, North Korea, Belarus and a scattering of sympathetic to Russia small countries and something like two fifths of the world are on the other side. So much for unity.

Trouble for ourselves and much of the West is that we don't want to upset all those on the other side for trade and diplomatic reasons, so we end up unable to act decisively.
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I am going to disagree to an extent... . China would be somewhat sympathetic to Russia, both as a bulwark against The USA, but I get the feeling rhat China is angry that they were sold a pup.they believed the Putin story .., and now want to back off. India, I don't know either , again they want to remain unaligned. Its one thing to be pro Russia as in anti USA/ Western ..and there is plenty of hurt and grievance in the third world, but its something else to approve of a War of Aggression. Every country has boundaries ,and every country has neighbours who want a bit of whats not theirs
Moreover there is a lot of talk that Belarus is appalled, and one reason they have not joined with Russia is because there is a fear of an army mutiny.
 

oyster

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Agreed, but many of those countries are small, often tiny. China and India wont shift and being just short of 2.8 billion they are a third of the world population.

And do you really see North Korea, Iran or Kazakhstan* shifting?

* According to a survey conducted by the Central Asia Barometer, 87% of Kazakhs have a favorable view of Russia, with 8% holding an unfavorable view. The survey also found that 88 percent support closer relations with Russia, compared to 6 percent who do not.
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If you were a Kazakh, would you be honest when answering a poll "Is your view of Russia favourable?"?
 

flecc

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India, I don't know either , again they want to remain unaligned.
This isn't true, India's government is firmly aligned to Russia and have reaffirmed that. I've been surprised at just how much the Indian people are supporting Russia over this war. An online nation who therefore must know the truth of what is happening in Ukraine, they are currently littering the web with pro Russian hashtags.
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flecc

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Both might, when oil and gas price comes down.
They have a golden opportunity to buy Russian oil and gas at a discount at the moment.
There is absolutely no way their attitudes are due to current energy prices!

I'm amazed at how unaware you are of the very long term underlying relationships between both China and India with Russia. Both will make sounds agreeable to the West when that suits, but when the chips are down they are both with Russia.
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Woosh

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There is absolutely no way their attitudes are due to current energy prices!

I'm amazed at how unaware you are of the very long term underlying relationships between both China and India with Russia. Both will make sounds agreeable to the West when that suits, but when the chips are down they are both with Russia.
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Do you mean like facing the prospect of WW3, they would side with Russia? I doubt that, especially if that dinosaur Putin is still in charge.
 
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flecc

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Do you mean like facing the prospect of WW3, they would side with Russia? I doubt that, especially if that dinosaur Putin is still in charge.
I've already answered that for China, it's yes according to our think tanks and defence strategists. China and Russia have a common purpose and that will not change.

And India is far more firmly aligned than you think and it's not just them in the Indian sub-continent. Pakistan's Imran Khan is currently negotiating a gas pipeline from Russia to Pakistan and this comes on top of both Pakistan and India competing to be close friends with China too.

I'm sure these developments over time is why the USA with NATO is being so cautious now. Much of the great bulk of Eurasia could all too easily end up in a common camp, East v West, if the long developing situation isn't handled with considerable diplomatic care.

In the long term scheme of politics, Ukraine's war will just be an incident.
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jonathan.agnew

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I've already answered that for China, it's yes according to our think tanks and defence strategists. China and Russia have a common purpose and that will not change.

And India is far more firmly aligned than you think and it's not just them in the Indian sub-continent. Pakistan's Imran Khan is currently negotiating a gas pipeline from Russia to Pakistan and this comes on top of both Pakistan and India competing to be close friends with China too.

I'm sure these developments over time is why the USA with NATO is being so cautious now. Much of the great bulk of Eurasia could all too easily end up in a common camp, East v West, if the long developing situation isn't handled with considerable diplomatic care.

In the long term scheme of politics, Ukraine's war will just be an incident.
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i wouldn't break out the champagne just yet
 
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oyster

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A bizarre story (at least, that is how is appears to me):

Boris Johnson ‘desperate’ to visit Ukraine, says Tory party chair
Oliver Dowden says PM has a ‘real emotional connection’ with the Ukrainian people, but No 10 sources say a trip is unlikely

I guess the visit part is based on Churchill's various visits to troops in WW2.

Did Johnson ever claim an emotional connection with Ukraine before this year?
 
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Woosh

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I'm sure these developments over time is why the USA with NATO is being so cautious now.
I thought NATO is cautious simply because it does not want the war to be unnecessarily bigger. NATO countries wants peace dividend and less spending on defense (except the USA because of their important defense industry).
I am not convinced that India and China is going to align themselves with Russia. They would look at at countries that aligned themselves with Germany in WW1 and WW2.
 
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Zlatan

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China might support Russia but it will only to be of benefit to China. Could easily become an annexe of China. In world scheme of things Russia isn't such an important player, similar GDP (when it's not sanctioned) to Italy. Xi Jinping is planning on taking it over.. He could buy it quite easily, Putin has way over stepped himself. His military has proved around half as capable as expected. More he keeps going the worse his reputation becomes. His only weapon is bludgeoning, chemical or nuclear. This entire episode has shown both him and Russian military for what they are. Corrupt, inefficient and growingly desperate.
I suspect any support he did have is draining. Belerus have been pulling their troops back from border. There is growing confusion between Kremlin and control of forces in Ukraine. Putin will either do something even worse or pull out. They are actually getting a hammering,hence resort to destruction of civilians.
 

flecc

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I am not convinced that India and China is going to align themselves with Russia.
They are already aligned economically and will cheerfully break the sanctions even more than they are already. India has only just signed yet another arms manufacturing deal with Putin, this time to make more Kalashnikovs for Russia.

As the think tank spokesman said, "When push comes to shove, Beijing will be with Moscow."

If you close your Western eyes and look at the situation though all the world's other eyes, who do you side with? NATOs 0.9 billion including all their colonial past and US wars against your rest of the world, or the helpful almost 3 billion of modern China, India and Russia, even before adding your population weight?
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flecc

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China might support Russia but it will only to be of benefit to China. Could easily become an annexe of China.
Of course, indeed Putin's Russia has already been helping that process by the mass immigration of Chinese into eastern Russia as part of that repopulation of the last two decades. All part of Russia's increasing move away from the West towards the East. China has the people, Russia has the space for them and has always had a large Oriental population anyway.
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Zlatan

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They are already aligned economically and will cheerfully break the sanctions even more than they are already. India has only just signed yet another arms manufacturing deal with Putin, this time to make more Kalashnikovs for Russia.

As the think tank spokesman said, "When push comes to shove, Beijing will be with Moscow."

If you close your Western eyes and look at the situation though all the world's other eyes, who do you side with? NATOs 0.9 billion including all their colonial past and US wars against your rest of the world, or the helpful almost 3 billion of modern China, India and Russia, even before adding your population weight?
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And a what point does India, China etc realise they are backing a despot leader who has rivals poisoned and imprisoned, one who oversees the viscous attacks on public who dare speak against war and one capable of war crimes, like bombing hospitals, schools and deliberately targeting civilians.???
Putin's behaviour is showcased in Ukraine. The longer it goes on the longer Russia will be a pariah state. Its only a matter of time for rest of world to see exactly the type of regime Putin represents and actually how what an utter shambles their military actually is in. They are losing this war, losing to a country 29th on list of military capability world wide. I doubt his own regime will tolerate this negative exposure much longer.
 

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