Oh - you're making election predictions again. What does that remind me of - err - let me think...
Oh yes -
www.pedelecs.co.uk
Read that post. Then read the whole page and one either side and then go away quietly and stop trying to predict the future. The problem isn't that you make a mistake now and then - we all do that. The problem is that you persistently delude yourself, ignore inconvenient facts, wrongly weight evidence and arguments, and consistently come to ridiculous conclusions.
You have to differentiate between what you 'would like to be the case', from, 'what is
actually the case', and you seem never to do that about politics if it doesn't suit the position you already came in with. For this reason it is pointless writing anything at length in response to your posts , because you entirely ignore everything you don't like the look of.