Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

BBC Question Time @YvetteCooperMP asks @MattHancock ‘By World Health Organisation standards, shouldn’t you still be self-isolating?’ His reply ... I’m following our own recommendations and science’


Replying to @BremainInSpain @YvetteCooperMP and @MattHancock
oldgroaner@oldgroaner

Banzai!

 

[oldgroaner]

Matt Hancock has pledged to build a new medical diagnostics industry in the UK, arguing that the lack of one has made widespread coronavirus testing hard. @TomSwarbrick1 asks: how satisfied are you with this explanation? https://pic.twitter.com/3Id8J3AjJU


Replying to @LBC and @TomSwarbrick1

oldgroaner@oldgroaner
Give us the job and we'll cock up the tools! seems to be the moral here

 

[oldgroaner]

"Hancock is committed to 100,000 tests per day by the end of the month...100,000 was the hill he was prepared to die on. No more bullshit. No more obfuscation. A real target with his job on the line if he failed to deliver." https://theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/words-i-thought-id-never-write-thank-god-for-matt-hancock?CMP=share_btn_tw

oldgroaner@oldgroaner
Time for a change of government based on getting results or getting sacked, these people couldn't hold down a job collecting litter on an empty street.

 

[daveboy]

This was painted on a wall in Pontefract overnight.

 

[oyster]

As before, there needs to be a sense of realism here. The key point about getting an infection is being bombarded by lots of virus particles . Even absorbing one or two will be unlikely to cause infection ,and were it to, the natural body defenses will cope. It is if they get overwhelmed , and cannot produce antibodies faster than the virus factory , that one gets sick. That concept is viral load.
Now even if a person is producing say 100K particles per breath of 1 litre every second, and a person is 2 metres away .. the volume of air in a 2 metre radius sphere is . 10 cubic metres . A litre is 1/1000 of cubic metre , so that viral load is reduced 10,000 fold . Obviously if you stay in that proximity long enough , you will absorb enough..
Of course futher away the better.. as the intensity drops off as the cube of the separation .. except of course for directed flow.. like blowing directly into someones face.

I suspect that all human viral emissions are somewhat directional. Yesterday some of the sneeze/cough research video was on TV and it appeared to approximate quite a narrow cone.

But what happens at 1 metres, 2 metres, 6 metres or more? If the viral particles fall to the ground, then the ground is contaminated. If they stay in the air, their concentration might, indeed, will reduce. But they will be joined by the particles from others who sneeze, cough or just breathe. Hence, I suspect that the more people in an enclosed space, the better the transmission (worse outcome).

It is only if those viral particles are rendered inactive that we can, safely, breathe our sighs of relief.

 

[oyster]

Time for a change of government

Whilst I agree with the need, and the sentiment, I'm not sure I could face a GE campaign...

 

[oyster]

Matt Hancock has pledged to build a new medical diagnostics industry in the UK, arguing that the lack of one has made widespread coronavirus testing hard. @TomSwarbrick1 asks: how satisfied are you with this explanation? https://pic.twitter.com/3Id8J3AjJU


Replying to @LBC and @TomSwarbrick1

oldgroaner@oldgroaner
Give us the job and we'll cock up the tools! seems to be the moral here

I suspect every country in the world with a reasonable level of science will be looking at the current state and diving in so they are at the front for next time. Of course, most will fail. What makes UK likely to win?

There could be quite some mileage in looking at dual purpose production lines. I imagine a factory producing make-up remover and pads for same which could switch to hand sanitiser and facemasks at the drop of a hat. The USA has long held all sorts of strategic reserves and accepted their cost as necessary. Even a small controibution might be able to ensure that a factory can maintain the ability to switch quickly.

Obviously, what is needed is a) a product we can do without; b) access to whatever raw materials are needed; c) will. Multiplied across all the things we are short of.

The UK governments relaxed approach to everything being imported is nonsensical and always was. But it wasn't the EU at fault. It was the government not ensuring that sufficient capability remained in the country.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

As before, there needs to be a sense of realism here. The key point about getting an infection is being bombarded by lots of virus particles . Even absorbing one or two will be unlikely to cause infection ,and were it to, the natural body defenses will cope. It is if they get overwhelmed , and cannot produce antibodies faster than the virus factory , that one gets sick. That concept is viral load.
Now even if a person is producing say 100K particles per breath of 1 litre every second, and a person is 2 metres away .. the volume of air in a 2 metre radius sphere is . 10 cubic metres . A litre is 1/1000 of cubic metre , so that viral load is reduced 10,000 fold . Obviously if you stay in that proximity long enough , you will absorb enough..
Of course futher away the better.. as the intensity drops off as the cube of the separation .. except of course for directed flow.. like blowing directly into someones face.

I take your point and accept your calculations, but there are many unknowns in there, assumptions made about a virus that we know very little about. I find it very surprising that the rate of infection is due to being blasted with sneezes, coughs or touching contaminated surfaces and then our face. Time will tell I suppose as we begin to understand more.

 

[oldgroaner]

Whilst I agree with the need, and the sentiment, I'm not sure I could face a GE campaign...

Not necessary the wartime coalition wasn't done by a GE

 

[oyster]

Why have so few in the UK recovered? What is happening to the statistics?

Just 192. Far fewer than most other listed countries (except those with few confirmed cases). Yet we have Hancock, Dorries, Osborne (Kate), Russell-Moyle, Johnson, and probably others in a set of just over 650.

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[oyster]

Not necessary the wartime coalition wasn't done by a GE

But that didn't get rid of the existing government in total. Let us see what they do over the weekend.

 

[Danidl]

I suspect that all human viral emissions are somewhat directional. Yesterday some of the sneeze/cough research video was on TV and it appeared to approximate quite a narrow cone.

But what happens at 1 metres, 2 metres, 6 metres or more? If the viral particles fall to the ground, then the ground is contaminated. If they stay in the air, their concentration might, indeed, will reduce. But they will be joined by the particles from others who sneeze, cough or just breathe. Hence, I suspect that the more people in an enclosed space, the better the transmission (worse outcome).

It is only if those viral particles are rendered inactive that we can, safely, breathe our sighs of relief.

Again carrying through the logic. Once in the air, the particles start to decay. .. dessication, temperature, . Lets suggest a half life of 6 hours .(again speculation, but somewhat informed ), then the viral load from that one breath has dropped by half in that time. So if another shedder comes on average every 6 hrs, the amount on the ground remains constant..

 

[oyster]

Again carrying through the logic. Once in the air, the particles start to decay. .. dessication, temperature, . Lets suggest a half life of 6 hours .(again speculation, but somewhat informed ), then the viral load from that one breath has dropped by half in that time. So if another shedder comes on average every 6 hrs, the amount on the ground remains constant..

And in a supermarket, even with limited number of shoppers, what happens? I suggest there could be at the very least a shopper every five minutes.

(I thought that on hard surfaces they could last at least 72 hours, possible considerably longer.)

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Again carrying through the logic. Once in the air, the particles start to decay. .. dessication, temperature, . Lets suggest a half life of 6 hours .(again speculation, but somewhat informed ), then the viral load from that one breath has dropped by half in that time. So if another shedder comes on average every 6 hrs, the amount on the ground remains constant..

Too much guesswork. Very little is known about this virus, too little to make this level of assumption credible.

 

[Danidl]

And in a supermarket, even with limited number of shoppers, what happens? I suggest there could be at the very least a shopper every five minutes.

(I thought that on hard surfaces they could last at least 72 hours, possible considerably longer.)

72 hrs is 10 half lives .. so yes some would survive . It is surface dependent and a non absorption cold surface gives the longest survival. But going back to the number of shoppers.. what is the probability that that shopper is a shedder?. Using my own local experience. ... According to the Irish HSE, we have 60 confirmed cases in my county. Assuming that the real figure is 10 times that .. 6000 , there are 128,000 people in the county . So the probability is 6/128 or 1:20 that the next person is an unknown carrier

 

[Danidl]

Too much guesswork. Very little is known about this virus, too little to make this level of assumption credible.

One makes a model, assigns feasible numbers and then refines these when better information is available.
So taking additional information from flu studies, there is strong evidence that virus shedding of 100K particles per Hour from normal tidal breathing as aerodol ,will occur from a person with 100M particle sample density at the back of throat
The lifetime of this virus particle is dependent on the surface it lands on, which is how it differs from say a radioactive particle which is totally independent of external influences.

A hot dry surface, which can absorb water will "kill" the virus in minutes ,whereas a cold wet or no absorption surface will prolong it ..even indefinitely.. viruses are held under liquid nitrogen for decades.

 

[oldgroaner]

Why have so few in the UK recovered? What is happening to the statistics?

Just 192. Far fewer than most other listed countries (except those with few confirmed cases). Yet we have Hancock, Dorries, Osborne (Kate), Russell-Moyle, Johnson, and probably others in a set of just over 650.

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Is the personal generation of Hot air known to have beneficial curative properties?
Or does being a congenital liar under pressure result in the body producing antibodies?

 

[oldgroaner]

Brexit shambles tweeted

Just 3% think British government is handling the Coronavirus very well.

Max Robespierre tweeted
Who are these 3%?
I responded
oldgroaner@oldgroaner

Undertakers

 

[oldgroaner]

Boris and co seek someone to carry the can

The Buck stops with Boris and his creep (wherever it is now)

 

[flecc]

I think the general 2 metre spacing in place now is too close. I’m only comfortable with 10 metres, plus a mask.

MIT research shows coughs and sneezes can propel moisture particles 6 metres in still air, so they recommend 8 metres separation.
.