Do the AfD have 20,000 candidates?
We're not talking about ALL the candidates in Deutschland.
I would have thought that was obvious, apparently not!
I did say the 20000 was the number of candidates of Nord Rhein Westphalen. The 6 AfD candidates who died are all in this state, not the whole of Germany.The vote is due next weekend.
In view of their age group (59-71 year olds), their deaths are said by the police of natural causes, ie related to their pre-existing medical conditions except one who killed himself. While 6 deaths from one party in one state is notably high, it's important to consider that
16 candidates from various political parties have died in the same timeframe . This broader context suggests that the phenomenon may not be unique to the AfD, though the concentration of deaths within a single party remains striking. Due to the possibility that those deaths could be linked to their party, the police are still looking into them.
Using German life tables (Statistisches Bundesamt):
- At age 60: annual probability of dying ≈ 0.9% (9 per 1,000).
- At age 65: ≈ 1.5% (15 per 1,000).
- At age 70: ≈ 2.6% (26 per 1,000).
So for
59–71-year-olds, the annual death rate averages around
1–2% per year.
So for the few weeks in question, say 10% of 2%, 20000*0.1*0.02=40 expected deaths. As it turned out, 26 of them have died.
You can see those deaths are not statistically extraordinary.