What is the future?

indalo

Banned
Sep 13, 2009
1,380
1
Herts & Spain
Looking around the various advertisers whose sparkly, eye-catching ads adorn this site, I note that there are essentially two types of provider. On the one hand, we can see one-make suppliers with good reputations yet they are in competition with some multi-marque dealerships with equally good reputations advertising in the same place.

Call me old-fashioned but I like the idea of the little man down the road who provides good service at a decent price. I'm not a fan of big, sometimes multi-national, companies subsuming the little guys or simply driving them out of business just because they can.......think Tesco here!

Now don't get me wrong; I've got a Tesco clubcard and I use their local store but I try to do business with my local small shops as and when I can. I just get a feeling that, with all the new models emerging on to the market; new drive systems and a very clear upward movement in prices of the perceived "premium" bikes, not all of the names we're familiar with in this forum will survive too long in what appears to be an increasingly competitive market.

I suspect David Miall has probably got it right with his marketing model as he sells his bikes through many outlets without actually having a shop that I know of with Wisper emblazoned above the door. It occurs to me that we're going through a period of change in the ebike market and I think there will be much jockeying for position before things settle. Eventually, I suspect there will be less choice available in the market than there is right now and the bargain-basement bikes we can choose at the moment, if on a budget, will simply disappear. My worry is that the very basic but nevertheless functional bikes will be at the price point of the mid-range bikes we see now, if they survive at all.

Although the technology will improve, albeit slowly, I really believe that right now will be looked upon in the future as being the great days of electric biking. Every time I ride my bike, I marvel at the fact that I can ride it up a hill without my bum ever leaving the saddle when I know that on my other bikes, I'd be standing, (and straining) on the pedals or getting off and walking.

It will be nice in say, five years time, if we still have all the ebike brands available to us which exist currently but I can't imagine that happening. If, however, we can view and test-ride those bikes we like in modern, sleek premises, rather than risking a purchase from a well-known auction site, offered by someone working out of his shed who may disappear tomorrow or simply revert to double-glazing or water-softener sales, I would regard that as progress.

For unselfish reasons, (cos I've got a bob or two) I really hope the cheap end of the market survives. If it should go, short-term profiteering by the pricier retailers will certainly occur until the market crashes on account of ridiculous prices, which is in no-one's interest in the longer term.

If any part of my prediction...or suspicions should come true and you would like my forecasts for the treble-chance next season, you can contact me, Horace Batchelor, Keynsham, spelled, K-E=Y=N=S=H=A-M, Bristol.

Indalo
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,846
30,401
I think the current UK market is over supplied at present, both with makes and suppliers. I'm sure some of each will disappear in a year or so, but that of course is nothing new. The last decade saw a number of supplier names disappear, and e-bike brand names disappear all the time, more than I can keep pace with.

Logically the retailing drift for any motorised vehicle is likely to be towards local shop outlets, few buy cars or motorcycles online. As with those, a trial before buying is important and the need for subsequent service is also a factor for most users.
 

funkylyn

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 22, 2011
3,172
27
South Shields, Tyne & Wear
Haha......so thats where you went to Horace.......showing your age there Indalo :)
I remember him well LOL
As far as the bike market goes it would be nice if a lot of the rubbish disappeared, but I doubt that we will have such a huge choice in future.....theres far too much and its confusing people.
If the quality was more uniform we might get and whats more KEEP a lot more e-bike converts......I think a lot of people must be tempted into the market...get their fingers burnt in the rubbish end of the market, get disillusioned and never get any further which is a shame.
I dont think we will ever see the end of local, or small, bike stores for the simple reason of people needing to try bikes first.....but they might have to have a better choice to tempt people to travel to them

Lynda
 

banbury frank

Banned
Jan 13, 2011
1,565
5
Hi

The answer is SIMPLE Bike shops will sell and fit kits to standard Bikes

An electric bike conversion is simple A motor a controller and a battery

Where is the Problem I do It all day Every day

If the shop keep a standard kit with battery options larges or small capacity depending on the range the customer wants From 10 AH to 15 AH to 20AH

Spares and servicing no problem

Why do you think Wisper Are launching the Daahub why would the largest

Go with a kit

Customer walks into his local bike shop I am interest in an electric bike OK sir please go and select the bike in your budget that you like then we can convert it .

The options on kit depend on the battery capacity SIR.

OR Can I help you SIR i am looking for an electric bike I already have a good bike but cant manage the hills any more no problem SIR we can convert for you

Prices start at ??? how far do you need to travel ??? then you need this size battery SIR




Frank
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,846
30,401
In mainland Northern Europe where e-biking really is very popular and sales are huge, it's all e-bikes and I've seen no mention of kits. Maybe we will be different, but I have my doubts.
 

trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
7,703
2,671
Call me a cynic but I think the market will follow the PC business pattern.
Back in the early 80's, IBM and Compaq PCs dominated the high end of the market, the importers cum assemblers of the like of Dan, Viglen, Watford Electronics and Elonex occupied the budget end. There was not much in the middle.
The 90's saw a huge expansion of the budget end because customers realized that a clone can do the same job as a premium brand PC for 30-40% less money. The top end got squeezed on margin.
Around the turn of the century, the bottom end got squeezed this time because the premium brands flexed their industrial muscles and brought the price down, pushing the weak independent clone assemblers out of the market. The market consolidates into the middle segment.

Today's ebike market is comparable to the early 90's. In the next 2 years, you will see hundreds of bike shops getting on the electric wagons due to the availability of ever more reliable, cheap and standardized conversion kits. Just like standardized PC components helped the clone assemblers.
Sub £600 ebikes will dominate the volume market, squeezing margin of the premium brands.
In 3 years, the likes of Tescos will get on the bandwagon too, like the PC market around 2000. Then the small bikeshops will have to get niche or get out too.
If like me, you are after value for money (as long as the product is 100% reliable), not long to wait now.
 

banbury frank

Banned
Jan 13, 2011
1,565
5
Hi

The answer is SIMPLE Bike shops will sell and fit kits to standard Bikes

An electric bike conversion is simple A motor a controller and a battery

Where is the Problem I do It all day Every day

If the shop keep a standard kit with battery options larges or small capacity depending on the range the customer wants From 10 AH to 15 AH to 20AH

Spares and servicing no problem

Why do you think Wisper Are launching the Daahub why would the largest

Go with a kit

Customer walks into his local bike shop I am interest in an electric bike OK sir please go and select the bike in your budget that you like then we can convert it .

The options on kit depend on the battery capacity SIR.

OR Can I help you SIR i am looking for an electric bike I already have a good bike but cant manage the hills any more no problem SIR we can convert for you

Prices start at ??? how far do you need to travel ??? then you need this size battery SIR




Frank
 

mike killay

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 17, 2011
3,012
1,627
As I see it, there are now two kinds of e-biker.
1 The traditional sporting cyclist who for whatever reason has taken to e-bikes. These are the people who have kept e-bikes going so far. This includes commuters who would go by ordinary push bike if e-bikes were not available.
2 Newcomers and ex-cyclists barred by age and disabilities. This is the new market. Newcomers could use ordinary bikes but are deterred by traffic,weather, laziness, hills etc. They are quite impressed in my limited experience by what an e-bike can do and like the unlicensed freedom it gives compared to a conventional moped.

The market still offers rubbish e-bikes, mostly made some years ago with 180watt motors, kept in warehouses and regulary trotted out when various fly boys fancy their chances. This will carry on for some time and undiscerning new buyers will be caught. (Quite by chance, I discovered that some air rifles made in the 1850's were still being occasionally offered for sale in the back pages of newspapers in the 1930's) Old unsold stock has a habit of regularly re-appearing.
However, we now have the internet. I bought my e-bike unseen by internet because I had been able to read reviews on this forum and no-one local sold the type that I wanted.
I hope that we reach a point where we only have quality bikes on sale by quality retailers who know their job and look after their customers. They may not be local, but I can telephone or e-mail and either order spares or in the worst case, pack the bike up and send it to them. Remember, the main bulk of the bike is an ordinary cycle, easily serviced/repaired locally and it is only the electrical parts that will need a specialist.
But how many cycle shops are embracing the e-bike? My local one bluntly told me not to bring an e-bike to them as they didn't understand them, not even for a puncture. They are only interested in racing and MTB bikes. With business men thinking this way, bankruptcy looms and as far as I am concerned the sooner the better.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,846
30,401
the likes of Tescos will get on the bandwagon too, like the PC market around 2000. Then the small bikeshops will have to get niche or get out too..
Supermarkets have tried. Tesco sold the Izip bikes under the name Meercat Metro for quite a while but inevitably came unstuck on service problems. They just aren't equipped to handle e-bikes.

Makro have tried selling the Powacycle e-bikes at heavily discounted prices but that appears to have come to nothing.
.
 
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trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
7,703
2,671
Frank, one big reason why you haven't seen so many bike shops getting on the bandwagon yet is because most conversion kits are not reliable enough. A good design must be mechanically sound, that's not what I see with the current crop of kits. You need kits that work like a Kalkhoff bike: click, clak, done.
The battery and the controller must be intergrated and attractively designed like a Bosch unit. All the cables must be channelled inside the tubes. The rear wheel motor must be integrated with a proper gearbox. Then you get to the PC circa 2000.
 

trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
7,703
2,671
flecc:
Supermarkets have tried.
All the current ebikes without exception is no where as reliable as an average PC or a mobile phone.
Just wait a couple of years. You wrote yesterday that China has adopted EU standards, that means they saw the future of making not 27M bikes like last year but 270M in 2013.
 

banbury frank

Banned
Jan 13, 2011
1,565
5
Hi

Trex

I total agree BUT the Daahub is going to change that and similar kits like the Ezee


Have you seen the instal video on the Daahub any bike shop can handle that no problems and a confident DIY Person yes Ladies as well PLUG and PLAY

Tell me the difference between a Daahub fitted a £500 bike and a wisper bike ????

Now fit it to a £2,000 bike WOW

Well Done Wisper

Frank
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,846
30,401
I can't really agree, there are some very reliable e-bikes, just as reliable as any ordinary bike. That ordinary bike side won't get any more reliable, a proportion will always fail early and supermarkets just aren't equipped to cope with warranty issues as Tesco have shown.

As for that sales claim, I've seen similar for each of the last four years and none have ever come true. There has been quite large growth in Europe in the last year but it's getting ever closer to saturation level. With every 8th bike sold being an e-bike in some countries, sales cannot realistically grow ten times.
 

trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
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Frank, kits like the daahub are a bit better presented than Bmsbattery's but they all suffer the same problem: too many components, too many points of failure. Back in the 90's, an average PC had 3 addon cards. How many are there in a modern office PC or laptop? none.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Eh! Consumers mostly don't use office PCs and the ones they buy have all manner of cards, both from new and add-on. Video cards, express PC cards, sound cards and a number of special application cards. Then there's external modems and routers, back up USB hard drives, and sometimes even UPS, plus printers/scanners etc.

They're all in bits!
 

trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
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flecc, China may have produced 27M ebikes in 2010 but only exported less than 1M to the EU. Where did the rest go? There is huge scope for exporting to populous countries that don't have oil of their own.
Ebikes present a different kind of challenge to the like of Tescos. They can sell fridges, washing machines etc - because of increasing reliability and reduction in the number of fragile components. Look at the Bosch drive system: well made, accessible, no snag. That's how ebikes will be built in the next year.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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They stayed in China, the world's largest market for them. The Panasonic unit bikes have been exceptionally reliable for very many years and are the same type as the Bosch, but Tesco have sold none of those bikes. Why do you think the new Bosch one will be better, they've already had one problem on all units. Tesco sell washing machines and the like successfully because the manufacturers have repair organisations. I don't see e-bike sales levels ever allowing that in the UK.

You may have missed my preceding post on PCs.
.
 
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trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
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Frank, I would draw a parallel between office PC users and ebike commuters, home PC users with ebike weekend riders. The former's need would be fulfilled by sub £600 bikes like the Woosh Siroccos, the latter would not be happy with anything less than £1000 bike. But that's where the parallel ends. The heart of consumer PCs is more reliable than 99.9% of all bikes.
Flecc, ebikes are still too expensive for most families of average income. Prices have to come down to around £300 - that's already been achieved by the very foldable Ubikes (14.5kg, 24V 6AH, 180W motor). Conversion kits must come down to £200 - that's again is already achieved in some cases.
I think the Chinese may have a problem with IP - there are hundreds of Chinese brushless motor assemblers but not many drive systems. The Tonaro drive is an exception, the Bofelli is another.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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I agree they are too expensive by far, but the big problem is the battery. That alone might get down to a little under £300, but the whole bike and electrics?

Lower prices need a huge mass market, and I don't see the slightest prospect of that in non-cycling Britain for example, or in the USA, Australia etc
 

trex

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 15, 2011
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flecc, the internet broadens the range of margin an ebike business can consider. All businesses start more or less with the same base price, in China. Battery prices go the way of flat screen TVs. Size goes up, prices halved in less than 5 years. I just take a look at ebay:
24V 10AH with charger £110
A year ago, it would have been twice that amount.
An MTB from China costs about $80 - $110.
A £300 ebike is possible wouldn't you agree? that would open up market in Mexico, Brasil, Bangladesh (as tricyles) etc..