- Oct 25, 2006
Yes we can predict what will happen if we leave, for two reasons:I am saying that you can't predict what will happen if we leave,
My guess is that we can maintain a friendly and peaceful relationship with Europe whilst selling to the countries which want our goods and services.
The first is the proven Swiss example of what trying to restrict free movement results in.
The second is our UK proven one "Been there, done that, failed". I mean of course what happened to David Cameron when he tried it. He went to the EU countries to negotiate a better deal, particularly with reference to gaining control over free movement. As you Brexiters said, he failed miserably. He got a metaphorical bloody nose, with leader after leader absolutely refusing to budge on free movement. Some made it very clear, bluntly saying if we don't like it, leave the EU. It's really an absolute, not only for the Swiss but also proven for us.
So if we want to trade without barriers with any EU countries, we will still have freedom of movement.
So I turn now to the Brexiter argument that the EU trade with us is too valuable for them to lose, so they'll make concessions. Wrong again, the EU has never done a single euro's worth of trade with the UK, our trade is with member countries, and individually many of them couldn't care less about trade with the UK since they either sell us little or nothing.
And that is crucial, since to get anything agreed, right down to each item, all the other 27 countries have to agree. That's never going to happen for an outsider to the EU, as the Swiss example has shown. Seven long years of negotiation and then an agreement only with total capitulation and still paying in to the EU.
For us if we vote to leave that is a disaster, since we will be even worse off. Not only will we have agreed to Shengen, we'll also have lost our current generous rebate.
The alternative of many Brexiters is to say to hell with the EU and trade with the rest of the world. All I can say is best of luck. The commonwealth countries have never forgiven our betrayal when we joined the EU and stopped buying their produce. Since then they've found more convenient and often lucrative markets to trade with, so our chances there are negligible.
African trading has beeen sewn up by the Chinese with their generous construction projects buying favour. The Falklands issue fouled our relations with Argentina and Brazil and the rest there are basket cases. Russia is sanctioned and in any case unreliable, and we've got as much as we'll ever get with the USA.
So that leaves China as the only market big enough to replace our EU trade. Well goodness knows we've tried hard enough there, constantly sending prime ministers, trade secretaries and members of the royal family, but in the end about all we sell them is a few luxury cars.
Ergo, if you persuade the public to vote us out, it will either mean crawling to the EU or be an isolated disaster.
But do you know what, I almost hope you succeed, because then you'll finally be forced to open your mind to the truth.