Brexit, for once some facts.

Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/trade-brexit-gravity/

A really good article. To summarise (read it to the end)...
Trading with distant emerging markets will not replace lost markers within EU but with massive changes in transport /delivery etc the efficiency losses will not be as detrimental assumed in past. (difficulties in trade have historically followed very similar relationship to that within gravity and massive bodies, but read article for better explanation)
Basically the losses in markets associated with Brexit by remainers will NOT be as detrimental as they assume, but like wise, they will not be as easy as many leavers assume. As normal the "truth" is somewhere between the two camps..
Having read article it does assume trading with geographically close and culturally similar is easier... to be fair that has not been my general experience.. But perhaps its the exception that proves the rule and I, m sure OG would argue problems I have faced (in Spain, France Greece) are more my doing than theirs.
Our project in BVI was up and running with fewer rules, problems etc than those in med. (Pre hurricanes) So far so good re Goa and off on another inspection/recce to Langebaan 14th Jan..
Having said all that firm I used to work for owned 10% of all yachts in med... They won't be bothering with Goa, Langebaan and such but have massive presence in Carribean. But there is little prospect of massive growth in med... Which is sort of a problem for my current industry. ( med growth is all around massive yachts, elsewhere its about getting bigger numbers involved) Does that say something generally about EU? (to be fair Europe)
India will soon have a richer / bigger middle class than UK...
The article doesn't really look into speficics. Its quite possible in some instances the only potential for new trade is outside EU... ( Try taking a yacht out in Port Grimaud/St Maxine /St Tropez this August, you can walk a cross bay, its already packed)
None of it is as simple as either side make out. I do think the deliberating is more danaging than staying or leaving.
Fingers and 02 James..
Leavers posting on here is like a Utd fan posting on a Liverpool forum. You are wasting your time. You can't educate pork but good luck trying...
I used to keep a yacht in Barcelona,the best crusing area was the Balearic's,but it became impossible to get overnight moorings. Have now moved to Greece,much more relaxed but its now busy with italians in the peak of summer,but I prefer June and September.
Greece is now packed with flotilla operations,who are moving further south to find space.
KudosDave
 
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Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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House of Commons T M Questions - I get the distinct impression she's deliberately driving us onto the rocks of a hard brexit - with her looping/parroted answers, head in sand attitude, continuing to delay vote, refusal to contemplate a 2nd referendum, which would please her employers The 1922 Commitee.

MPs on all sides want to get vote done before crimbo - she just waffles on as if Father Christmas will bring her a gift wrapped solution down the chimney.
I agree,just cant make my mind up whether she is hanging onto the job at all costs....she is pretty much known as Mrs Brexit,so no Brexit no need for May. Or she has some clever plan to be revealed on March 28,maybe March 30.
KudosDave
 
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Danidl

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I’ll be honest.

I’m struggling to make sense of that.

Are you drunk?
Well l try this for size... The reason why the Scottish independence referendum was lost was because of a project fear type statement that they would be outside the EU and would need to go through a lengthy process for admittance. FACT not speculation.

Then no sooner than this is over , but the UK holds a referendum about EU membership and then Scotland votes decidedly against leaving ... FACT. In fact of the 4 countries of the UK ,only England and Wales .
The Scots were rightly annoyed... And felt very much betrayed.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/trade-brexit-gravity/
Trading with distant emerging markets will not replace lost markers within EU but with massive changes in transport /delivery etc the efficiency losses will not be as detrimental assumed in past.
Two weaknesses. First the "just in time" manufacture of parts within vehicle manufacture and assembly that we are good at now can only operate between countries very close. The Japanese have tried it over long distances and failed, resourcing close instead.

Second, the graphs exclude services, a huge and vital proportion of our exports.

The article doesn't take into account how long it could take to set up our own trade agreements. As EU members we currently benefit from 79 EU trade agreements with almost all the worthwhile countries worldwide, a structure that took many years to build. Also I can't see that our 65 millions market can secure better terms than the 500 million EU achieved.

No matter how it's looked at, Brexit makes us worse off, and your article doesn't disagree.
.
 

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
Neither myself nor Ed nor a couple others are fooled. Why I bother writing this is a mystery to me.
Yes, it's a mystery to me too! Why are you here wasting your time and mine with posts only ever containing unadulterated drivel?

If you haven't got anything to offer in the way of a definite benefit from secession or indeed anything that might cause we pro-EU adherents to think again, wouldn't it make sense for you to save yourself the trouble of posting your nonsense here?

Tom
 
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Fingers

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Feb 9, 2016
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Well l try this for size... The reason why the Scottish independence referendum was lost was because of a project fear type statement that they would be outside the EU and would need to go through a lengthy process for admittance. FACT not speculation.

Then no sooner than this is over , but the UK holds a referendum about EU membership and then Scotland votes decidedly against leaving ... FACT. In fact of the 4 countries of the UK ,only England and Wales .
The Scots were rightly annoyed... And felt very much betrayed.

That wasn’t the only reason. There were many, many reasons.

Also your confirmation bias is in full throttle again! Out of the 4 countries in the uk only 2 voted out. ONLY? ONLY? In any language that is half. So it’s hardly only is it? And using your Oft repeated claim the somehow the vote was invalid because the majority was only 750k for leave. Well only 90k less voted leave than remain in N.I. Hardly worth bothering about according to your math.

But anyway it’s a smokescreen as we voted as one country. That is the real fact of it.
 

Fingers

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Corbyn has triggered a no confidence in the her and the government.

She looked bewildered.
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Two weaknesses. First the "just in time" manufacture of parts within vehicle manufacture and assembly that we are good at now can only operate between countries very close. The Japanese have tried it over long distances and failed, resourcing close instead.

Second, the graphs exclude services, a huge and vital proportion of our exports.

The article doesn't take into account how long it could take to set up our own trade agreements. As EU members we currently benefit from 79 EU trade agreements with almost all the worthwhile countries worldwide, a structure that took many years to build. Also I can't see that our 65 millions market can secure better terms than the 500 million EU achieved.

No matter how it's looked at, Brexit makes us worse off, and your article doesn't disagree.
.
I didn't say it did flecc... I had read it... All of it...
 
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Zlatan

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Corbyn has triggered a no confidence in the her and the government.

She looked bewildered.
???
Are you sure. Report I saw said he threatened to unless she announced a date for vote, which she did (14th Jan)... He then withdrew threat...??? I think...
But it all seems rather confusing , as it now seems he has withdrawn... his withdrawal...???
It seems nobody in parliament is capable of being decisive. WTF is going on...
 
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Danidl

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That wasn’t the only reason. There were many, many reasons.

Also your confirmation bias is in full throttle again! Out of the 4 countries in the uk only 2 voted out. ONLY? ONLY? In any language that is half. So it’s hardly only is it? And using your Oft repeated claim the somehow the vote was invalid because the majority was only 750k for leave. Well only 90k less voted leave than remain in N.I. Hardly worth bothering about according to your math.

But anyway it’s a smokescreen as we voted as one country. That is the real fact of it.
I cannot understand your terminology.. . What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.. The reason the Scots are a bit miffed (ok not a bit), is that the reason they accepted union with England was BECAUSE it ensured remaining with the EU. Then ,no sooner is that done,and the ink nearly dry, they find themselves shunted out of the EU... Under such conditions, they feel betrayed would you not also be miffed.?
I never said that the referendum result was invalid. I stated and continue to say it was wafer thin and therefore deserved a different response than the crowing which has resulted.
The difference in the Scottish case was 660,000, out of a population voting of 2,600,000 , a much larger fraction.
 
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Fingers

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I cannot understand your terminology.. . What's saucee for the goods is sauce for the gander.. The reason the Scots are a bit miffed (ok not a bit), is that the reason they accepted union with England was BECAUSE it ensured remaining with the EU. Then ,no sooner is that done,and the ink nearly dry, they find themselves shunted out if the EU... Under such conditions, would you not also be miffed.
I never said that the referendum result was invalid. I stated and continue to say it was wafer thin and therefore deserved a different response than the crowing which has resulted.

So the only reason Scotland voted to stay in the UK was so that they could stay in the EU.

Am I reading that right?
 

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
This seems to be extant according to the BBC news site:

uk-politics-46586673

Love the comment from Edward Leigh, the thinking drinking man's politician - I really don't think he's been listening for the last two years…….

But she won support from one "previously sceptical" Brexiteer, Sir Edward Leigh, who said her efforts to secure a legally-binding protocol on the Irish backstop might pay off, urging her to "keep calm and carry on".

The EU has already stated that no further talks are scheduled yet May has tried to get her party to believe that further concessions or at least clarifications are possible.

The truth is that she has run out of time and JC knows that there is nothing further coming from the EU. That is why he wants now to pin her down on the important vote delay she has announced. There is no need to delay it further.

Tom
 
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Danidl

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So the only reason Scotland voted to stay in the UK was so that they could stay in the EU.

Am I reading that right?
Yes!. Don't take my word for it. There were other bits added about being outside NATO, that the RN shipyards and submarine bases would have to close and come south, and they would be thrown out of the sterling area.
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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As Corbyn initiated a No Confidence vote or not. BBC said he had, reports on Web suggest he has withdrawn it??
Come on flecc... Pop round and ask them what's going on. Corbyn said he was initiating a NC vote but will he have time before 14th Jan..??
 

oyster

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Could May be influenced by USA? The HoC is darned near shut down - though the USA version is based on no funding of actual services.

Donald Trump has said he’ll shut down the government if Democrats won’t agree to $5bn to pay for his proposed border wall.
 

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