Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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the number of cases depends partially on thee availability of PCR tests.
If our government makes booking more difficult because of less availability, the number of positive cases flattens or even drops.
But as in Nev's area, our largest London Borough infection rate has been falling, BUT, so have our deaths which of course are unaffected by test availability.

Last week zero deaths, down from 2 in the week before.
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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Last week zero deaths, down from 2 in the week before.
.
UK wide, covid deaths are still growing.
57% increase in the last 7 days [447 deaths, 163 more than the week before].
No sign of peaking.
That's probably a reliable measure of success/failure of our government action.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,851
30,402
UK wide, covid deaths are still growing.
57% increase in the last 7 days [447 deaths, 163 more than the week before].
No sign of peaking.
That's probably a reliable measure of success/failure of our government action.
What I expected short term, but I think it will decline as the year progresses.
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
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West West Wales
I see Javid has stirred it up:

Anger over Sajid Javid’s advice to not ‘cower’ from Covid
Bereaved families, Labour and Lib Dems all condemn health secretary’s ‘insensitivity’



I suspect Javid does not understand the etymology of "cower". Why did Burns write:

Wee, sleekit, cowrin, tim’rous beastie,

He knew that cowrin and tim'rous have different meanings (as do wee and sleekit) - it wasn't out of ignorance (or emphasis by repetition) that he worded the verse as he did.
A fairly fast offence-to-apology time.

Just a poor choice of word(s). Seems to be enedemic in the tories.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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West West Wales
I see suggestions that football (and other sport) will be included in the "must be vaccinated" rules.

In the context of Wembley, if they can't even manage to stop people without tickets entering, what chance checking the vaccination status of every person trying to gain entry (with or without a ticket)?
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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The answer given in that Hansard comment was so bizarre, that I am looking for ways in which it might make sense. Perhaps a comparative study between two vaccine regimes,both previously approved?. It is often the case that a Minister / Department will have extra information,furnished by the MP in advance of the question detailing say the name of a constituent, and the specific circumstances and this is not made public.
Assuming said minister can and will read, when his boss obviously doesn't!
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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Tory Fibs@ToryFibs
· 2h
•Vietnam has a population of 97 million & during the entire 2 yr pandemic it lost a total of 370 people to Coronavirus
•UK has a population of 68 million & since Freedom Day on Monday it has lost 418 people to Coronavirus Sajid Javid’s handiwork has exceeded Vietnam in a week

If I had a Funeral Parlour this could be the first Brexit Bonus I could boast about
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,851
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•Vietnam has a population of 97 million & during the entire 2 yr pandemic it lost a total of 370 people to Coronavirus
But can we trust their figures? At the 31 May 2021 they stated they only had 47 deaths since their first infection cases in January 2020, so from the above they seem to have had a surge of 323 deaths in just 7 weeks since!

Copied from Vietnam Info site. Updated 31 May 2021:

Current snapshot of COVID-19 situation in Vietnam

Confirmed infections7236
Recovered cases2950
Deaths47

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sjpt

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 8, 2018
3,694
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Winchester
UK wide, covid deaths are still growing.
57% increase in the last 7 days [447 deaths, 163 more than the week before].
No sign of peaking.
That's probably a reliable measure of success/failure of our government action.
No direct sign of deaths peaking. However, death stats typically lag cases stats by around 3 weeks, so we may well see a peak in a couple of weeks, followed by decline (otherwise it wouldn't have ben a peak).

Vaccination has almost certainly reduced cases, but that is difficult to verify from the stats. The stats show that it has certainly reduced case fatality rate; it seems (?) that the case/death lag has remained fairly consistent.

Similarly the cause (eg football cup or removed lockdown) to recorded case lag is probably a couple of weeks. If the cases continue the current downward slope for the next couple of weeks that will be an indication that the recent government relaxations have not been as bad as many of us feared.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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Similarly the cause (eg football cup or removed lockdown) to recorded case lag is probably a couple of weeks. If the cases continue the current downward slope for the next couple of weeks that will be an indication that the recent government relaxations have not been as bad as many of us feared.
hospitalisation figures have a lot less lag, the probability that someone ends in hospital varies with temperature and humidity, lower in the summer, higher in the autumn and winter.

Latest data provided on 20 July 2021

Daily
917
Last 7 days
5,490
up 1,157 (26.7%) in the last 7 days.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
hospitalisation figures have a lot less lag, the probability that someone ends in hospital varies with temperature and humidity, lower in the summer, higher in the autumn and winter.

Latest data provided on 20 July 2021

Daily
917
Last 7 days
5,490
up 1,157 (26.7%) in the last 7 days.
And what is happening to the death figures? Claimed technical issues but it seems rather odd.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,457
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Just a note for Admin I was blocked from the site this morning by wordfence, but when I turned my AVAST VPN off
Here I am!
I this something you should know about?
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,851
30,402
hospitalisation figures have a lot less lag, the probability that someone ends in hospital varies with temperature and humidity, lower in the summer, higher in the autumn and winter.

Latest data provided on 20 July 2021

Daily
917
Last 7 days
5,490
up 1,157 (26.7%) in the last 7 days.
Infection figures down again today, daily number down six days in a row, from 47k a week ago to 25k now.

So much for Professor Neil Ferguson's forecast just over a week ago of the 52k steeply rising to 100k a day.

Already other gloom mongers are changing their tune from disaster by Christmas to infection rate low by the end of August.
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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Neil Ferguson did not say when 100k a day will be reached. It could be late September or October when the cold weather returns.
I was guessing at a ceiling of 60,000 a day in the middle of the summer.
 

Nev

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 1, 2018
1,507
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North Wales
Infection figures down again today, daily number down six days in a row, from 47k a week ago to 25k now.
Yes this is good news, does anyone know why this is happening? With the ending more or less of restrictions in England one would expect rates to have increased I wonder why they have not.

Could it be that with so many people vaccinated, so many people having caught the virus and also that a certain percentage of people (not sure what this percentage is) seem to be immune to the virus that we might be getting close to herd immunity.

I imagine the real test will come when schools start back again in September and by then people vaccinated last December or January may well need a booster injection.
 
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