Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,764
30,349
I think the best way to think about the vaccines is that they do an excellent job of keeping you out of hospital if you catch the virus but they are not to be relied upon to stop you from catching it in the first place.

Things like social distancing, mask wearing in public places, good ventilation etc. are likely to be far more important things to consider than just having the booster.
I'm quite sure that physical separation from any possible virus source is the only reliable way of avoiding infection, be it by distance with fresh air or fully effective filtration. The vaccines alone are clearly not a reliable method as your evidence of just one person's contacts also shows.
.
 
  • Like
  • Agree
Reactions: Danidl and Nev

soundwave

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 23, 2015
15,973
6,292
When this comes back from decoding it will probably come with a note recommending reference books on Cannabis poisoning.

any drug can kill you in excessive amounts even sugar over time but some ppl can eat 1 peanut and die from that but i have smoked and vaped weed for near 30 years now and im still not dead.

i know a few ppl int the usa that eat the stuff in cakes ect and have had a bad reaction from eating to much and get in a right state but most survive and dont do it again lol.

the only way i can see you it killing from smoking it is Asphyxiation in a small enclosed space.

44870


high cbd strain.


now if i turned a hole plant in to cbd oil id have a lot so why they are being charged 2k a month is fkn insane!
 
Last edited:

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,407
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
e.g.
If a packet of sluggit or something says "reduces your slug population by 95%", then if I used to have 1000 slugs in the garden, I'd expect to have killed 950 of them if I used the sluggit, and so I'd have 50 left. I could then do a risk/benefit evaluation and try and decide if reducing the risk of my lettuces being eaten, is worth potentially killing some innocent wildlife.
=950 * (100% /1000 sample size) =95% is the absolute risk reduction.

For vaccines, you use relative risk reduction.

You run a 3 month trial with 1000 people given a placebo and 1000 given your vaccine. If 10 people in the vaccinated group and 30 people in the unvaccinated group got Covid in the trial period, the relative risk rate is 10/30 or 33.3%, the efficacy is thus 1-33.3% = 66.6%
You can see that the efficacy is based on quite small numbers of positive cases.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: GLJoe and flecc

jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
2,375
3,366
.
[/QUOTE]
Actually I am slowly dying of Industry related Asbestosis, and caring for my wife who is also slowly dying of advanced mixed Dementia.
I sleep sat up in chair because the fluid in my lungs means I wake up choking if I lie down.
Do you think giving up salt and sugar and "E" numbers will prove beneficial? :D
I must remember to give it a try
By the way the average age of death for males in Hull is 76.5 years and I am 77.5 years old.
Perhaps I can expect another twenty years or more if I'm careful?
Sorry I'm laughing, what else is there to do?
But I'm always willing to learn, are you?
Sorry to hear og. My sympathy. I realise life has no obligation to be kind or fair to any of us, but that sound a very sticky wicket.
 

soundwave

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 23, 2015
15,973
6,292
  • :D
Reactions: flecc

soundwave

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 23, 2015
15,973
6,292
 

AndyBike

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 8, 2020
1,126
491
Actually I am slowly dying of Industry related Asbestosis, and caring for my wife who is also slowly dying of advanced mixed Dementia.
I sleep sat up in chair because the fluid in my lungs means I wake up choking if I lie down.
I'm sorry to hear that, and in a slightly similar position in that I can only sleep about 3 hours at a time and wake up coughing up a hell of a lot. Probably due to tobacco and wood dust, so I've copd and asthma.Im on both preventer and reliever inhalers along with a braltus powder inhaler, Im 52, no chance will I get to 77.5, in fact 65.5 I reckon will be good going.
I've also got one of the leukemia's, i forget which exactly, only its not the leukemia leukemia that leads to blood cancer, just a blood disorder that makes me overheat and vomit if i exert myself too much.
That was a fun wait for the appointment to see the specialist over which I had, I think actually she was more relieved than I was that she didnt have to convey horrific news.

Now you dont have to smoke marijuana to gain the medicinal benefits, and tbh Old groany one, I dont see why you shouldn't look to have some in a yogurt or such. Who knows you might enjoy the experience.
 
Last edited:

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
This came up a few days ago and its been playing on my mind.
My thinking goes like this:

We now know that unfortunately, the current Covid Vaccines do not stop you catching Covid, nor do they stop you transmitting it to other people.
What they do seem to do is lessen the impact on the individual if you do catch it.

Wouldn't this means that if someone who is not vaccinated catches Covid, they would probably become ill, feel pretty bad, so they would hopefully stay at home in bed, not go to work, and thus not pass on the virus to 'vulnerable people'

Conversely, a care worker who HAS been vaccinated, can catch Covid, not get bad symptoms, (maybe not even realise they have it?), still go to work, and thus infect the 'vulnerable people'.

So specifically regarding the current Covid Jabs - Wouldn't this seem to indicate that its actually UNVACCINATED people that you'd want working in places like care homes, not Vaccinated ones?
That appears a simplistic interpretation.

Even if we assume that vaccinated are as susceptible to infection as unvaccinated. We need to consider how long the two groups can pass it on and with what effectiveness.

We might expect an unvaccinated person to reach a higher level of infectiousness and remain infectious for longer. (No - not saying I know this to be the case. Just a feasible hypothesis.)

And, if the staff are unvaccinated, the likelihood of them being seriously ill appears greater. Thus having a much greater impact on availability of staff. Obviously a symptomless infection would not result in any time off. Imagine a mild infection results in a few days off. A serious infection could be weeks or months.

Adding:

We also need to consider what happens when someone receives a very low dose of viral particles, such that they do not become overtly ill with Covid. Could extremely low level transmission, below the infectivity threshold, end up preparing our immune systems? And would this be more common from the vaccinated, symptomless or very mild cases?
 
Last edited:

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,407
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
I'm quite sure that physical separation from any possible virus source is the only reliable way of avoiding infection, be it by distance with fresh air or fully effective filtration. The vaccines alone are clearly not a reliable method as your evidence of just one person's contacts also shows.
.
I can partially agree with you on this.
The available statistics on Covid deaths show such a wide difference in ASR(Age Specific Rate, deaths per 100,000 people) that passive mitigation won't explain enough.
Most of those deaths are in the 80+ group (yours, 80% of the total) plus a smaller percentage in the 70-79 group (mine, 15% of the total). I am concerned enough for our safety that I checked the numbers myself. Worst time of the year is winter followed by autumn.
* small samples

ASR by Season
statusAge groupWinterSpringAutumn
Second dose10-59N/AN/A1.8
Second dose60-69N/AN/A8.8
Second dose70-79N/AN/A24.3
Second dose80+52*11.1*89
Unvaccinated10-5911.20.75
Unvaccinated60-69145.834.4101
Unvaccinated70-79645.838198
Unvaccinated80+4529.7128495.5

Vaccine efficacy + adoption of passive mitigations:

Age group10-5960-6970-7980+
vaccine efficacy89.35%96.73%97.01%97.05%
 
Last edited:

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,457
32,608
79
Reminds me of my Father somehow


I remember once attempting to tell him to stop being stubborn about mowing the lawn because of him just having recovered from a heart attack and his reply
"I am not stubborn, lad
I am simply persistent"
And my reply
"Dad, if you keep doing this sort of thing
I shall cut you out of my will!"
At least he laughed
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,764
30,349
I can partially agree with you on this.
The available statistics on Covid deaths show such a wide difference in ASR(Age Specific Rate, deaths per 100,000 people) that passive mitigation won't explain enough.
Most of those deaths are in the 80+ group (yours, 80% of the total) plus a smaller percentage in the 70-79 group (mine, 15% of the total). I am concerned enough for our safety that I checked the numbers myself. Worst time of the year is winter followed by autumn.
* small samples

ASR by Season
statusAge groupWinterSpringAutumn
Second dose10-59N/AN/A1.8
Second dose60-69N/AN/A8.8
Second dose70-79N/AN/A24.3
Second dose80+52*11.1*89
Unvaccinated10-5911.20.75
Unvaccinated60-69145.834.4101
Unvaccinated70-79645.838198
Unvaccinated80+4529.7128495.5

Vaccine efficacy + adoption of passive mitigations:

Age group10-5960-6970-7980+
vaccine efficacy89.35%96.73%97.01%97.05%
Thanks for this, very interesting. Of course the exceptionally high Autumn/Winter death rates of the unvaccinated over 60s are easy to explain, the unvaccinated are also very likely to be Covid deniers who don't mask or distance, plus cold weather is a very big factor in the elderly.

That is especially true in my case, 85 years old, heart and circulation problems and increasing severe primary Raynauds syndrome, meaning just a hint of sensing cold and the circulation in my extremities disappears. As odd as it sounds it's why I have an electric car.

In January 2018 walking to my garage some distance from my home and up the steep hill I was suffering the pain of the very cold air snatching at my lungs. By the time I'd opened the garage door and got into my icy cold car and touched the steering wheel my hands had lost feeling and I started uncontrollably shivering and feeling so ill the prospect of trying to drive for a while before the car started to warm up left me despairing at my worsening situation.

So although I couldn't possibly justify it with my very low mileage, I made the decision that I had to get one so I could have the instant heat I needed to stay well. I've owned mine for nearly four years now and although it sounds dramatic it's probably why I'm still alive now.

To explain, I'd suffered a long series of various minor but worsening heart attacks, but over time since then I've gradually been able to get the situation under control with a variety of methods removing stresses and triggers, and the car has been instrumental in this each winter.

This year since January I've actually a achieved a far better state of health than in any of the three previous years. For example 26 of those heart attacks in 2020 but none to date this year since 29th January.

Cold is still the main enemy I have to watch for though. Since the booster vaccine centre was in cold spot and queuing likely again, I had to check the forecast before refixing my appointment. With several days at between 1 and 4 degrees before and after, it had to be Tuesday afternoon with 8 to 10 degrees forecast so it's at 2.20 pm then!

To deter anyone from advising various clothing, it doesn't create heat, it only keeps it in. When I don't have enough heat in the first place there's little to be kept in before I start feeling faint.

I've probably had the heart trouble all my life without knowing it since I used to black out completely when I was young. The first time it happened was at six years old, in a cold November and walking with the family I apparently dropped unconcious like a stone. When I came to I was being carried by my father and freezing cold, very white and soaked with sweat. The same happened a number of times until the last occasion at 16, scaring people around me each time, but it had become routine for me.
.
 
Last edited:

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,457
32,608
79
.


Sorry to hear og. My sympathy. I realise life has no obligation to be kind or fair to any of us, but that sound a very sticky wicket.
Actually I have been very lucky, there are no figures (or rather none published) of losses due to Asbestos where I worked, suffice to say I only know of three others still around out of a workforce of several hundred before the use of Asbestos was banned and factory closed and cleaned up.
Worst, none of us had a clue of the danger we were in.
No doubt this it typical of factory work of that period before health and safety came in.
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
19,407
16,387
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Thanks for this, very interesting. Of course the exceptionally high Autumn/Winter death rates of the unvaccinated over 60s are easy to explain, the unvaccinated are also very likely to be Covid deniers who don't mask or distance, plus cold weather is a very big factor in the elderly.
Agreed.
I have my doubts about vaccine efficacy as soon as the Pfizer phase 3 trial results were out (November 2019). They pre-sold an awful lot of doses for a high price on very flimsy evidence.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,608
12,253
73
Ireland
Thanks for this, very interesting. Of course the exceptionally high Autumn/Winter death rates of the unvaccinated over 60s are easy to explain, the unvaccinated are also very likely to be Covid deniers who don't mask or distance, plus cold weather is a very big factor in the elderly.

That is especially true in my case, 85 years old, heart and circulation problems and increasing severe primary Raynauds syndrome, meaning just a hint of sensing cold and the circulation in my extremities disappears. As odd as it sounds it's why I have an electric car.

In January 2018 walking to my garage some distance from my home and up the steep hill I was suffering the pain of the very cold air snatching at my lungs. By the time I'd opened the garage door and got into my icy cold car and touched the steering wheel my hands had lost feeling and I started uncontrollably shivering and feeling so ill the prospect of trying to drive for a while before the car started to warm up left me despairing at my worsening situation.

So although I couldn't possibly justify it with my very low mileage, I made the decision that I had to get one so I could have the instant heat I needed to stay well. I've owned mine for nearly four years now and although it sounds dramatic it's probably why I'm still alive now.

To explain, I'd suffered a long series of various minor but worsening heart attacks, but over time since the I've gradually been able to get the situation under control with a variety of methods removing stresses and triggers, and the car has been instrumental in this each winter.

This year since January I've actually a achieved a far better state of health than in any of the three previous years. For example 26 of those heart attacks in 2020 but none to date this year since 29th January.

Cold is still the main enemy I have to watch for though. Since the booster vaccine centre was in cold spot and queuing likely again, I had to check the forecast before refixing my appointment. With several days at between 1 and 4 degrees before and after, it had to be Tuesday afternoon with 8 to 10 degrees forecast so it's at 2.20 pm then!

To deter anyone from advising various clothing, it doesn't create heat, it only keeps it in. When I don't have enough heat in the first place there's little to be kept in before I start feeling faint.

I've probably had the heart trouble all my life without knowing it since I used to black out completely when I was young. The first time it happened was at six years old, in a cold November and walking with the family I apparently dropped unconcious like a stone. When I came to I was being carried by my father and freezing cold, very white and soaked with sweat. The same happened a number of times until the last occasion at 16, scaring people around me each time, but it had become routine for me.
.
Actually there is clothing which creates heat... I bought a Regatta coat at about 90 euro, reduced from their list price of close on 300... And no since there are permanent sales , I actually don't believe the list price thing. Anyway it is part of a voltrol range . You slip one of these usb battery packs inside it ..used for recharging mobile phones and it works .... As yet I have not been cold enough to need the battery .
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,764
30,349
Agreed.
I have my doubts about vaccine efficacy as soon as the Pfizer phase 3 trial results were out (November 2019). They pre-sold an awful lot of doses for a high price on very flimsy evidence.
Indeed. My concern in being critical of the vaccine deficiencies now is that I want to have any complacency they may have dispelled. They are contentedly making unimaginable billions now, so before all of that immense windfall disappears to shareholders I want to see it providing a very large expansion in research on the corona viruses.

This world is full of bright young graduates anxious to get an interesting research job so there's no shortage of the right people.
.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Nev

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
Actually I have been very lucky, there are no figures (or rather none published) of losses due to Asbestos where I worked, suffice to say I only know of three others still around out of a workforce of several hundred before the use of Asbestos was banned and factory closed and cleaned up.
Worst, none of us had a clue of the danger we were in.
No doubt this it typical of factory work of that period before health and safety came in.
In my school, we had extensive buildings with a central (massive) boiler. Along many corridors, there were lagged pipes distributing hot water. The lagging being, of course, white and fibrous and with lots and lots of damage to it.

I also remember using asbestos Rawlplastic (so-called) for fixing screw-in fittings to walls.

No, not a clue at the time.

A tiny fraction of what industrial works, and those who lived in Leeds, were exposed to.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,608
12,253
73
Ireland
I'm quite sure that physical separation from any possible virus source is the only reliable way of avoiding infection, be it by distance with fresh air or fully effective filtration. The vaccines alone are clearly not a reliable method as your evidence of just one person's contacts also shows.
.
If only to amplify your answer... My daughter was in a taxi the other day ,and the driver claimed he was just back at work having had Covid. He got it last February March , prior to vaccination in his age group, then was double vaccinated , and again succumbed last October. There is probably fewer worse environments to be in than a private taxi for hours on end.. our taxis don't have glass partitions between the driver and passenger.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,764
30,349
Actually there is clothing which creates heat... I bought a Regatta coat at about 90 euro, reduced from their list price of close on 300... And no since there are permanent sales , I actually don't believe the list price thing. Anyway it is part of a voltrol range . You slip one of these usb battery packs inside it ..used for recharging mobile phones and it works .... As yet I have not been cold enough to need the battery .
Indeed, I've got some of it, but sorry to say it doesn't work well enough for me, either not warm enough or if warm enough, not lasting long enough before the battery runs out. The most useless have been heated gloves.

For winter cycling exercise long ago I use to pre-heat gloves and shoes in the oven to get a half hour ride. That was more effective, though it didn't do the gloves and shoes much good!
.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: oldgroaner

Advertisers