Market Research view on e-bike mass market future

[flecc]

In a Paris report by the NPD Group, the leading global provider of consumer and retail market research information for a wide range of industries, the following extract on the future for the e-bike mass market is interesting:

“Electrical bikes have yet to prove that they are a mass market product in Western Europe (to the exception of some countries such as the Netherlands). We believe what is missing is a touch of glamour on the bikes and they are expensive in comparison with traditional bicycles. So the interesting question is at what level of price will we observe that the demand for hybrid technology products will start to rocket and hit the mass market (and when will this happen?) This is probably around half the current prices (psychological price is certainly below 500 euro) and the turning point is probably still a few years from now.”

Further information from npd.com, but the full report on world cycling trends has to be paid for.

 

[z0mb13e]

the interesting question is at what level of price will we observe that the demand for hybrid technology products will start to rocket and hit the mass market (and when will this happen?) This is probably around half the current prices (psychological price is certainly below 500 euro) and the turning point is probably still a few years from now.”

Further information from npd.com, but the full report on world cycling trends has to be paid for.

For me the price is a pratical reality and decreasing every month it seems (stagnant wages and ever increasing out goings) and < €500 would be far less of a stretch. I'm looking at that for a new battery right now and seriously considering taking a punt on a ping battery as a concequence. All plans to replace the Wisper with a nice alfine model have gone out the window.

Would economies of scale push prices down to sub €500 with bikes still maintaining the quality of > £1000 bikes?

 

[flecc]

Would economies of scale push prices down to sub €500 with bikes still maintaining the quality of > £1000 bikes?

With very large sales it would be possible to get to €499, but I'd still see replacement batteries as a problem for continuing popularity. Really good 370 Wh lithium batteries would be unlikely to get below about €200 of that bike price, and that is still unacceptable to the mass of the public who think such battery prices are ridiculous. The technology means nothing to the majority who see a similar physical volume car battery at about €60, and that's what they are likely to draw a comparison with.

 

[timidtom]

Agree - we get people being very interested in our bike until the 'and how much does a spare battery cost?' question comes up. The answer sadly sees most of them walk away ... car battery prices would bring them back!

 

[anyiddo]

From my experiences in China where everyman and his dog(well at least the ones that haven't been eaten) have a family member owning an electric bike prices are about £350 ish for decent quality. Saw a Giant hybrid for sale at 6000RMB, about £600 (that's the pre haggle price!) So the question should be - why are bikes (electric and normal) so expensive in our beloved EUSSR? I'd love someone explain to me why the price difference?
I also think there are other factors at play here -
Firstly there is a mindset about the use of bikes to commute, are we lazy?......don't lie.(most of you would answer this comment but can't be bothered)
Secondly many people live some distance from work - too far for these bikes so..
Thirdly raise the 250W motor limit and speed these are artifical limits that vastly limit the potential customer base.

 

[mike killay]

Who knows, perhaps the lead acid battery may yet come back.

 

[Andrew harvey]

£500 is far to cheap,In a world were you get what you pay for.
I've got a bike shop, the cheapest adult bike of any quality I sell is a Python Rock, 21 speed easy fire shifters, aluminum frame, with a basic pair of aluminum suspension forks. I need to sell them at £200 to make 35% margin, the importer Reece cycles in Birmingham buys them from the MD's father factory in Bangladeshi, they deal in quantity so only make !5%.
Of the sale price there is 20% vat and 6% import duty, you can reckon that they only cost £50/60 to build, but passing through several hands before reaching the customer bumps the price right up.
Buying direct from China it's possible to get a motor for $70, say £70 when it's imported, £30 for controller, £10 fr a throttle and £100 for a set of lead acid batteries, your looking at a minimum of £210 for the conversion . You still need something to carry the batteries on and put them in, basic rack £20 bag £20. we've reached a total of £450 and we want someone to build this for us so we can buy it as a nice package.
It's the nice package bit thats really the problem, if the bike looks cheap it probably is, how many people on this site are happy to ride an old style single speed Powabyke shopper, thats what your going to get for cheap, heavy, crude and basic, bear in mind here that the Powabykes are some of the more reliable and better supported basic bikes.

£500 will buy only a mid spec'ed normal bike, medium weight ally tubing, mid spec gearset, etc.

If you have to set a price were your going to get quality with support from a supplier who will still be there tomorrow your going to have to raise your price limits.

Here's one of my problems, a lot of adults remember when bikes cost a lot less, they know about inflation they boast about how much they've made on their house, they accept that their mid sector car cost over £20,000 when new but because they haven't bought a bike for 20 years expect to get them for 1980 prices.
Sorry only in the supermarkets, they come in box's, if you want them built for you bike shops I know of charge as much as £60 to put them together, why? Because of the s*** they cause you when the damn things wear out after a month. Yesterday a lad bought a BMX in, brand new of the Internet, he expected me to tighten the spokes in both wheels, '......cause it's new', but did he get a cheap bike?

 

[lemmy]

Because of the s*** they cause you when the damn things wear out after a month. £500 is far to cheap,In a world were you get what you pay for.

I bought an £80 bike from LeClerc supermarket when I lived in France. It lasted 5 years (more, really, because I sold it then in good running order for £40).

On the other hand I bought a £300 bike from an LBS in south west London which gave me nothing but trouble. And my LBS where live now was so insulting about my Kalkhoff ("they are still in business are they? I thought they stopped selling their rubbish years ago! Electric bikes, I don't see the point!") that I don't go there any more.

You can't take it for granted that you get what you pay for in my personal experience and the mere fact that a shop is local means nothing in itself.

 

[flecc]

All absolutely true if quality is essential Andrew. However, €500 euros for bulk manufacture passing through only manufacturer and retail is possible with acceptable quality. Even today we have the Cyclamatic as low as £369 for most of it's sales. As many owners testify, it's an acceptable e-bike which as d8veh has just reported in an adjacent thread, performs surprisingly well for a low cost 24 volt one.

In standard form I wouldn't say it's ideal for heavy duty use in commuting and the like, but the bulk of the e-bike market has never been that, more a local trip utility market. I think a mass market would be even more like that as the Netherlands example shows.