Oil bet there will be trouble..

[eTim]

Richard Branson predicts trouble for the UK (and world) within 5 years...

Branson warns of oil crunch within five years | Business | The Guardian

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/oilprices/7203172/Britain-faces-oil-crunch-within-five-years-Richard-Branson-warns.html

To my simple mind this means price increases for everything, including electric bikes and batteries. I foresee massive market demand for electric bikes as people really start to abandon their cars and look for alternatives. I also see massive demand for shoes as people start to walk again

I also foresee massive demand for illegal kits as people look to commute using throttle only in reasonable amounts of time (taking a lead from the Americans here).

Any thoughts ?

 

[monster]

we need a critical mass of electric bikers before we can hope to have any power over the writing of new legislation. bring it on!

 

[Barry Heaven]

I see electric bikes becoming less niche market and more mass market with all the benefits of cheaper mass production.

 

[flecc]

I think Branson is a bit premature to say the least. Since 1972 and the Arab oil crisis, the forecast of the end in a few years has been repeated time after time.

Since then we've found North Sea Oil, Alaskan oil, Venezualan oil, other South American oil, some Chinese oil, now starting to open up huge resources in Libya, and many small onshore resources with many more still to come. There's still the very large resources in the untapped side of Alaska, and the vast resources of Russia and it's satellites are only now being opened up. The possibilities in the southern hemisphere such as in the Falklands area are only just beginning to be explored.

Sure one day it will run out, and meanwhile will get progressively more expensive, but it will be many decades yet. No-one living today will be without in their lifetime.

E-bikes will never be mainstream transport in the UK.
.

 

[themutiny]

I've been interested in this topic for some time now. The Hubbert curve has had me quite worried. Of course if it is true, then e-bikes most certainly aren't the answer. To counter that, there is some evidence to suggest that (for some oilfields at least) they would 'appear' to be abiotic rather than the commonly accepted dictum that oil is non-renewable. There are some suggestions that the Russians have been working on the necessary deep drilling technology, and have pretty much cracked it. Even if true, this may not be a good thing. Have you ever played Global Hydrocarbon Monopoly by a previously totalitarian state?

abiotic oil debate

What is almost universally accepted, is that the times of easy eroei oil are coming to an end. (EROEI.COM - Home)

Does it spell the end of civilisation as we know it? Unlikely IMHO. Will it make the current economic practice of shipping 'out of season' produce all around the world obsolete? Probably.

Will it curb our reliance on fossil fuels generally? Again - unlikely, at least in the medium term.

There is a school of thought that the oil shale deposits are sufficient on their own to keep us going for 100+ years, but equally there is fairly universal recognition that the days of 'cheap' oil are behind us. How will the UK economy(or rather taxation model) fare under such circumstances?

Personally, I'll leave that to the politicians, ride my e-bike down to the pub, and have a couple of pints of real ale.

The older I get, the less I know

 

[flecc]

there is fairly universal recognition that the days of 'cheap' oil are behind us.

Motorists might one day be back where they began a hundred years ago, buying single gallon cans from the chemists.
.

 

[lemmy]

Are we sure electric transport will be the answer? Most of the UK electric power comes from oil, does it not?

I suppose the saving grace will be that EDF has massive experience of modern nuclear power production so at least we will have the French to bail us out, having ourselves preferred to invest in financial barrow boys.

But getting nuclear power up and running in the UK will take years.

It seems to me that any form of transport other than human propelled is energy intensive and comes at a high cost one way or another. The economics are so topsy turvy - it's cheaper to buy a live 50 miles from London and commute than buy a house near where you work.

Given that a barrel of oil at around $150 contains roughly the same energy as two labourers working for a year, it is obvious that petrol is absurdly under priced and we have been busy wasting it as a consequence.

Whether it last for 20 years or 200, future generations will pay dearly for the fecklessness of so many of my baby boomer generation - I include myself.

 

[NRG]

Are we sure electric transport will be the answer? Most of the UK electric power comes from oil, does it not?
.

Coal I think Lemmy not oil with Nuclear power some way behind.

 

[rog_london]

Motorists might one day be back where they began a hundred years ago, buying single gallon cans from the chemists.
.

We're close to that now with paraffin (kerosine). It used to be a cheap(ish) readily available fuel for cooking and heating. It's now not nearly so readily available and costs an arm and a leg even compared to our road fuel prices....

I know that part of that is that it has been susperseded by propane and butane gas cylinders which are considered cleaner and (sometimes) safer, but there must be many applications where kerosine would be more appropriate - if only because of the weight of a gas cylinder relative to the weight of its contents.

Rog.

 

[mart.hart]

How will I tow my caravan……..

What we need is a railway station in every town and village.
The train would have a goods van and then you could take your bike anywhere.
As for oil, well this country is built on coal.
So how about finding a way to run the trains on coal .

Old guy next door say’s our village had a railway station and that steam trains ran on the lovely cycle track we have. Yeh right

 

[eTim]

How will I tow my caravan……..

What we need is a railway station in every town and village.
The train would have a goods van and then you could take your bike anywhere.
As for oil, well this country is built on coal.
So how about finding a way to run the trains on coal .

Old guy next door say’s our village had a railway station and that steam trains ran on the lovely cycle track we have. Yeh right

A train running on coal, pah, it'll never work!

The prediction might be partly right though BBC News - Petrol prices set for record high, says AA

 

[flecc]

And of course oil and synthetic fuels can be made from coal, South Africa did it for years during sanctions periods and coal derived SynFuel is still in 50/50 use for refuelling all jet aircraft in South Africa. It's a dirty and not very efficient process, but not as dirty and wasteful as oil from oil bearing shale which is seriously being considered as a major source.

And jet engines have been successfully run on pulverised coal so we may yet see black vapour trails following aircraft across the sky.

A number of our relief power stations run using Olympus jet engines driving generators so coal could be viable for that once we learn how to get rid of the high CO2 output from this method. A stop gap while we wait for the nuclear station fleet to grow.
.

 

[Northern Irelander]

Richard Branson predicts trouble for the UK (and world) within 5 years...

Branson warns of oil crunch within five years | Business | The Guardian

Britain faces 'oil crunch' within five years, Richard Branson warns - Telegraph

To my simple mind this means price increases for everything, including electric bikes and batteries. I foresee massive market demand for electric bikes as people really start to abandon their cars and look for alternatives. I also see massive demand for shoes as people start to walk again

I also foresee massive demand for illegal kits as people look to commute using throttle only in reasonable amounts of time (taking a lead from the Americans here).

Any thoughts ?

'Oil bet there will be trouble' ................... is this a dig on Branson's dyslexia

Maybe he meant 50 years! lol

Either way biofuels will take the lead for personal transportation and Nuclear for electric supply (UK mainland in next ten years)

 

[flecc]

Either way biofuels will take the lead for personal transportation

Mmmm. Not so sure in the longer term as we see increasing cases of mass starvation in the rapidly expanding world population due to growing agricultural land shortage and water shortage.

At some point civilised consciences will be unable to bear that any longer.
.

 

[Barnowl]

The Icelanders are going to be feeling pretty smug with 100% geo-thermal .

Never mind all that peak oil nonsense look at how we're investing in this wonderfull leccie car technology and windmills that's going to help save the planet. Anything to stop the markets from panicking.

Reminds me of how no-one saw the credit crunch coming. Even though it was blindingly obvious. Higher prices for fuel imports and increasing international conflict do look likely.

 

[Alex728]

Mmmm. Not so sure in the longer term as we see increasing cases of mass starvation in the rapidly expanding world population due to growing agricultural land shortage and water shortage.

At some point civilised consciences will be unable to bear that any longer.
.

Biofuels are already making an adverse impact in Malaysia where jungle/rain forests are being cut down..

 

[Lloyd]

I reckon Beardie-Branson has secretly been developing an e-bike, and this is cunningly devised and timed perfectly to compliment the launch of such a bike next year..........

 

[Northern Irelander]

Mmmm. Not so sure in the longer term as we see increasing cases of mass starvation in the rapidly expanding world population due to growing agricultural land shortage and water shortage.

At some point civilised consciences will be unable to bear that any longer.
.

No I'm talking algae production, no need for arable land, biomass production rate exceeds that of any terrestrial plant

Keep the maize for those that need to eat it

 

[Northern Irelander]

I reckon Beardie-Branson has secretly been developing an e-bike,

Ahhhhh but is it trans-Alantic?

Be some size of battery

 

[Barnowl]

No I'm talking algae production, no need for arable land, biomass production rate exceeds that of any terrestrial plant

Keep the maize for those that need to eat it

Yes, looks promising - some way to go yet