Prices of the electricity we use to charge

[Tony1951]

Wind turbines produce cheapest electricity when the winds blow. Gas turbines can't compete on price, solar can't compete on price either. There is no need to ban anyone from using gas, their price will help people choose not to continue with burning gas in 10 years time because renewables will then be cheaper than now. Just like the use of horses in agriculture when the tractors arrived.

I have no problem with wind farms. I like them. I fully get the advantages.

What I object to is the imbecilic stupidity of people who keep on demanding we shut down teh backup system for windless periods. We had a whole month when our 30 Gwatt installed wind farm capacity was toddling along at about 5 Gwatts last year.

By the way - How do you heat your houses and hot water?

How much gas do you burn (if any) in a year and how much oil and electricity?

I bet it is about four times what I use.

 

[Tony1951]

In the last twelve months I used an average per month of:

Electricty 60 Kwhr
Gas 394 Kwr
Petrol 8.3 gallons

 

[soundwave]

20231015 1401551

www.youtube.com

 

[Woosh]

What I object to is the imbecilic stupidity of people who keep on demanding we shut down teh backup system for windless periods. We had a whole month when our 30 Gwatt installed wind farm capacity was toddling along at about 5 Gwatts last year.

Before you accuse me of making things up (Saneagle accused me of making things up several times in the past, I always produced credible sources like the BBC and broadsheets) This is ChatGPT's projection of electricity production cost for the UK.
You can see SMR pricing for 2040s. It's not that far away. Coal and gas won't be able to compete. Future reduction in cost of SMR can be like solar in the last 40 years,

Technology	2025_low	2025_high	2030_low	2030_high	2035_low	2035_high	2040_low	2040_high
Utility-scale solar (PV)	35​	50​	30​	45​	28​	40​	25​	35​
Onshore wind	30​	50​	28​	48​	26​	42​	25​	40​
Solar + 4-hr battery (firmed daytime)	70​	120​	60​	110​	55​	95​	45​	80​
SMR (mature, nth-of-a-kind)	90​	160​	70​	120​	60​	110​	40​	80​

 

[Woosh]

In the last twelve months I used an average per month of:

Electricty 60 Kwhr
Gas 394 Kwr
Petrol 8.3 gallons

I don't have gas in France. I use on average 15kwh a day because my house is well insulated and I have aircon and heat pump. I am thinking of installing solar when I buy my next car. I would save on EDF's bills.

 

[Woosh]

As an example of how partial you are in presenting information, you blamed balancing costs for the rise. You omitted to mention the fact that the largest part of the rise is due to an extension of the warm homes discount.

Ofgem site - notes to editors:

The price cap rise is driven by an increase in electricity balancing costs - adding around £1.23 a month to the average household bill. These cover the costs incurred by network operators to ensure a stable electricity supply, for when there is both too much power and too little power in the system, with the level set by the National Energy System Operator.

Other factors include costs associated with the extension of the Warm Home Discount (WHD) scheme (£1.42 a month). Looking forward, the WHD and forthcoming Debt Relief Scheme are important first steps to reduce the costs of bad debt by focusing support on those struggling to pay their bills and with historical debts from the energy crisis.

You took it out of context. That post of mine was a reply to MikelBikel who said 'OFGEM says windfarms are to blame for leccy price rises incoming! Who would've thunk?'
Ofgem did not single out wind farms as the culprits for the price hike.
I spar with MikelBikel regularly on misinformation contained in the yt videos he posts. He doesn't believe in EVs and renewables and posts accordingly.
I know you try to correct misinformation too and I wholly agree on that. The £6000 per mwh quoted was a record, nevertheless, it remains true that gas powered stations get fatly paid, not the wind farms, for when the wind is too strong for the grid. Note also that wind farms don't get paid when the wind doesn't blow. If it wasn't for the variability of renewables, Coal and gas powered stations would have been all closed by now. Storage batteries is the strongest growth area atm and with off shore wind turbines will push their closures forward for sure.

 

[AndyBike]

We have hundreds of years of shale gas supply under our feet.

Then what ?

X amount of hundreds of years have now passed. What are you intending to replace it with ?, or can you find something else that requires devastating the environment to gain.

 

[chris_n]

You took it out of context. That post of mine was a reply to MikelBikel who said 'OFGEM says windfarms are to blame for leccy price rises incoming! Who would've thunk?'
Ofgem did not single out wind farms as the culprits for the price hike.
I spar with MikelBikel regularly on misinformation contained in the yt videos he posts. He doesn't believe in EVs and renewables and posts accordingly.
I know you try to correct misinformation too and I wholly agree on that. The £6000 per mwh quoted was a record, nevertheless, it remains true that gas powered stations get fatly paid, not the wind farms, for when the wind is too strong for the grid. Note also that wind farms don't get paid when the wind doesn't blow. If it wasn't for the variability of renewables, Coal and gas powered stations would have been all closed by now. Storage batteries is the strongest growth area atm and with off shore wind turbines will push their closures forward for sure.

There are no coal power stations, the last one closed in September last year.

 

[Tony1951]

Then what ?

X amount of hundreds of years have now passed. What are you intending to replace it with ?, or can you find something else that requires devastating the environment to gain.

I have never argued against ANY practical use of what we might call green technology. In fact I have championed wind energy many times under other screen names since I came here. If there are practical alternatives, which produce power at a cost we can afford, I am all for them. I would imagine that small nuclear reactors might be a possible RELIABLE alternative, and they might in time be cost effective enough not to destroy what is left of our manufacturing economy. I don't know. Neither does Woosh. Our deplorable planning grid lock seems to mean that large nuclear power plant can't be built in under twenty years and they cost an absolute fortune with very expensive power production.

What I deplore is the frankly stupid idea that in ten years time we can shut down all of our gas turbine generators. The problem is the long high pressure periods, particularly in winter.

We need about 35 to 40 Gwatts of electric power in winter. Right now have an installed plate rated power of 30 Gwatts of wind energy, but for a month last winter it produced as little as 3.9 Gwatts. That was the wind power electric output on 4/11/24.

In January 2025, for three weeks it was around 8 Gwatts. Taking the average daily demand as 35 - 36 Gwatts, we had a massive deficit (without gas) of 26 to 28 Gwatts for almost a whole month at the same time as we had the year's peak demand.

That is the problem Andy. What is there to replace gas NOW or in the next ten years?

Woosh and Miliband's extremist position amounts to national suicide.

The extremists will also likely employ the tax system to cripple people who do use gas. They have already said they will do, complaining that gas is artificially cheap.

It isn't cheap. Electricity for various reasons is far too expensive. We know that by looking at other country's power prices - even countries which use gas like we do.

Gas DOES expose all users to price volatility. That is why a nationalised shale gas strategic reserve would be a nationalised asset. We can control the price, use it when we need it and turn it off when we don't. We could use fossil fuel assets wisely, and keep electric power prices stable and affordable.

Methane gas is a low carbon fuel. CH4 - one carbon atom tied to four hydrogen atoms. It is mostly hydrogen and in terms of atoms released in exhaust - three quarters of the output is water. Compare it with coal..... The output is more than twice as carbon heavy for every unit of heat.

We emit 1% of global co2. We have halved our co2 output since 1990 by transitioning away from coal burning electric power to gas.

While the Woosh and Miliband extremists will push our power prices even higher, China emits 35 times our CO2 output and last year switched on 40 Gigawatts of NEW coal fired power generation.

You might like to take a moment to read this article by the Institute of Economic Affairs which asks why when the UK has median level gas prices, we have by far the most expensive electricity, something like four times that of the USA.

The article is well worth the time.

We're number one... in unaffordable electricity

Introduction Each year, the Government publishes international energy price comparisons. The data is sourced from the IEA and covers industrial … Continue reading "We’re number one… in unaffordable electricity"

iea.org.uk

UK has the most expensive electricity




But Uk gas price is not the highest.

 

[Woosh]

would imagine that small nuclear reactors might be a possible RELIABLE alternative, and they might in time be cost effective enough not to destroy what is left of our manufacturing economy.

Unlikely before 2045-2050. We have to make do with sodium batteries until then.

 

[Tony1951]

Snippet from IEA discussion of UK gas and electricity prices referenced above in my post.

When we turn to electricity prices, the UK is woefully uncompetitive in both industrial and domestic markets with the highest prices among the 28 countries covered by the IEA. This level of price differential is an existential threat to the economy. Moreover, with gas prices around the median level, it cannot be gas that is driving the UK’s electricity prices well above those of international competitors.

 

[Tony1951]

Another snippet from the IEA article:

As discussed previously (here and here), it is the ~£11bn of renewables subsidies, £4.6bn of carbon taxes in the form of the Emissions Trading Scheme, £2.5bn of grid balancing costs and £1bn of capacity market costs that are driving electricity prices skywards. There is an extra £112bn of transmission network costs in the pipeline to connect remote, intermittent renewables to the grid that will continue to push up prices.

 

[Tony1951]

The REAL kicker for Miliband's and Woosh's ridiculous dogma driven crusade -


Having the highest electricity prices in the world ought to trigger a national emergency response. The Government’s primary mission should be to cut energy prices because cheap energy is the key to unlocking growth. They should focus first on ending subsidies for renewables and cancelling any further auction rounds. This would stop the rot at source. Second, they should abolish the Emissions Trading Scheme to bring down the cost of gas-fired generation. The Government would then need to invest in new sources of gas supply by encouraging more North Sea drilling and lifting the moratorium on fracking. In the longer term, there should be a renewed focus on nuclear in the form of conventional reactors, small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced reactors. These will need to be supplemented by gas-fired generation for the time being until nuclear is able to respond effectively to rapid changes in demand.

We can but hope that reality dawns on the Government before the economy collapses under the weight of Net Zero.

 

[Woosh]

Snippet from IEA discussion of UK gas and electricity prices referenced above in my post.

When we turn to electricity prices, the UK is woefully uncompetitive in both industrial and domestic markets with the highest prices among the 28 countries covered by the IEA. This level of price differential is an existential threat to the economy. Moreover, with gas prices around the median level, it cannot be gas that is driving the UK’s electricity prices well above those of international competitors.

Our production cost of solar is similar to Germany's, UK wind generated electricity is substantially cheaper. It must be down to profit and taxation policy. If the grid can take more wind, supported with more batteries, that will drive the the average price down.

Here’s a crisp, like-for-like snapshot of recent utility-scale renewable power costs using the latest public LCOE or auction/contract (CfD/EEG/CRE/PPA) prices. Figures are tech-specific and shown in the currency used by each market (to avoid exchange-rate noise).

TechUK (CfD AR6, 2012£ unless noted)Germany (EEG auctions)France (CRE auctions)United States (LCOE / PPAs)

Solar PV (ground-mount)£50.07/MWh (AR6) €46–51/MWh (2024–25 avg awards ≈ €46.6–47.6/MWh) €79/MWh (late-2024/early-2025 avg) $35/MWh PPAs (avg, 2023$); LCOE range broader by project/region
Onshore wind£50.90/MWh (AR6) €71–73/MWh (2024 avg awards) €87.6–87.9/MWh (2024–25 avg) $42/MWh LCOE (ref. plant, 2023$)
Offshore wind (fixed-bottom)£58.87/MWh (2012£) new projects; ≈ £82/MWh “today’s money” (ORE Catapult calc). Re-bids at £54.23/MWh (2012£) — (Germany focuses on onshore; offshore via separate framework)Floating tenders ~€86–93/MWh (indicative; tech-neutral comps limited) $117/MWh LCOE (fixed-bottom, ref. site, 2023$)


What this says about UK vs. major competitors

Solar PV: Germany is currently the price pace-setter in Europe with ~€47/MWh awards; UK AR6 solar at ~£50/MWh is competitive but a touch higher (and quoted in 2012£). US utility-scale PPAs average about $35/MWh, reflecting excellent resources, tax credits and scale.

Onshore wind: UK AR6 (~£51/MWh) is sharply competitive against Germany’s ~€71–73/MWh and France’s $42/MWh) is similar/leaner, again helped by scale and incentives.

Offshore wind: UK AR6 fixed-bottom clears at £59/MWh in 2012£ (~£82/MWh in current terms)—strong by global standards and notably below US reference LCOE ($117/MWh). France’s recent results are for floating (not strictly comparable), ~€86–93/MWh.


Notes & caveats (so the comparison stays fair)

Metric differences: UK CfDs are in 2012 pounds; I used ORE Catapult’s conversion to show an indicative “today’s money” view for offshore. EU auctions pay €/MWh; US figures are a mix of LCOE (modeled) and PPAs (contracted). Always be cautious mixing LCOE and auction prices—directionally useful, but not identical products.

Location & grid effects: Interconnection costs, indexation, balancing, and local content rules move numbers by ±10–20% project-to-project.

Recency: All figures are late-2024 to mid-2025 publications/results.

 

[Tony1951]

Unlikely before 2045-2050. We have to make do with sodium batteries until then.

Absolute boll ox and if you weren't completely mad you would know it.

This is like arguing in a lunatic asylum.......

You say you are an engineer by training.

Calculate the capacity needed to store enough electric power to run the grid for three and a half weeks when the wind energy you get from 30 gigawatt plate capacity in windfarms is 8 gigawatts and the mean demand is 38 gigawatts.

[Units are Gwhrs] 24*30*25=

Required sodium battery capacity 18 terawatt hours in 5 or ten years.

Uk now has 5 Gwhours of battery storage, so we require 17995 Gw hours to be built in the next decade to cover a pretty typical jan 2024 high pressure low wind deficit situation.

Cost of Sodium battery storage in 2024 $80 per kilowatt hour.

Cost of 18 terrawatt storage $140,000,000,000,000

[Basis of the calculation is 30 Gw deficit x 24 hours a day x25 days (jan 24 high pressure duration) x$80 per kilowatt]
You can check the maths - I think that's about right, but the numbers of zeros might have fried my brain.

Let's just say the idea is utterly insane.

 

[Woosh]

You say you are an engineer by training.

I never said that. My background is uni, 7 years, specifically physico- and electro-chemistry. Later, I taught myself electronics, both analog and digital, especially microprocessors because I was offered a job in the industry which I didn’t take because i was still doing my PhD. I discovered that I liked electronics more than the lab, especially I earned a little extra cash designing audio equipment for local firms. After getting married to an English who was teaching at my uni, we decided to move here. As soon as I became fluent in English, I started a computer business which is still trading.
How about you?

 

[Tony1951]

I never said that. My background is uni, 7 years, specifically physico- and electro-chemistry. Later, I taught myself electronics, both analog and digital, especially microprocessors because I was offered a job in the industry which I didn’t take because i was still doing my PhD. I discovered that I liked electronics more than the lab, especially I earned a little extra cash designing audio equipment for local firms. After getting married to an English who was teaching at my uni, we decided to move here. As soon as I became fluent in English, I started a computer business which is still trading.
How about you?

Maybe you could react to my post about why your sodium battery idea is nuts?

 

[Woosh]

Maybe you could react to my post about why your sodium battery idea is nuts?

CATL has perfected their sodium battery technology which they also supply/license to Tesla. They are aiming for production cost is $10 per kwh for their 200WH/kg technology. That is roughly 10% of current selling prices of Lithium batteries. They and Tesla can knock up 1MWH containers easy peasy and make tons of cash with it.
In the West, we doubt that CATL will get there ($10/kwh) but if you look back at solar prices, it's not as infeasible as we'd like to think.

Cost of 18 terrawatt storage $140,000,000,000,000

Do you want me to ask ChatGPT to check your estimate?
I think government has prepared a plan for net zero. They will ramp up storage batteries to about 50GW for 4 to 6 hours. Until then, we have to keep some gas.