It's not an exact science. There's a lot of variables involved: How much current you draw; how high you charge it; how deep you discharge; temperature; design of the cells; manufacturing methods, etc. The main points are that in theory Lifepo4 lasts about twice as long as a Lipo or LiCoMn. The construction of the battery is important, A battery with 100 or more 18650 cells will more likely fail from metal fatigue of the spot-welds long before the cells give up and, generally, solder joints don't like vibration, so they may fail in any battery if wires are unsupported. Even copper wire will fail from vibration after a while. So, I would say that your 10 years is a theoretical lifetime, but the battery is more likely to fail for another reason than the cells expiring. Also, some say that the cells age regardless of charge cycles and the aging is linked to the cell design and its exact chemistry of which details are rarely available other than marketing claims. Lithium batteries seem to have lifetimes of 2 to 3 years from reports on various forums, but, of course, those batteries were made 2 or 3 years ago. Technology is moving forward all the time, so today's ones are probably better. Lastly, you'll probably be moving on to new things as new products become available. I suspect that new ebike technical developments and new products will be the reason your battery ends up in the recycle bin. Look out for lithium sulphide which has twice the capacity for the same weight as Lifepo4 if only they could make them.
If you ask your question because you're trying to decide what battery to buy, my only advice would be to avoid batteries with 18650 cells, which tend to be rather heavy anyway, and in the beginning, get a cheaper Chinese battery because, if you become serious about ebiking, you'll want another different one soon anyway.