Brexit, for once some facts.

Danidl

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The EU`s poisonous Triple Lock explained..


The first lock: the transition period
The first lock is the transition period, which lasts until at least 2021. We must hand over an estimated £39 billion for nothing, be bound by EU law and take orders from an unelected Joint Committee operating under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Will the EU27 agree an equitable free trade agreement before the end of 2020? Unlikely, since all the goodies they want in the “future partnership” are set out in the Northern Ireland backstop, which kicks in automatically on 1st January 2021 unless superseded by a “partnership” agreement. Full ratification by all Member States is required before any such agreement can come into force. Achieving this in time to avoid entering the backstop would be nothing short of miraculous, even if the EU agrees to extend the transition period for one or two years. So it is more pay with no say and a likely doubling of the Brexit bill to £80 billion, to be paid with no reference to British MPs.


The second lock: the backstop
The backstop is intended to be inescapable. It prepares Britain for the final destination set out in the political declaration, as a permanent satellite state of the EU. By which time, of course, it is doubtless hoped that we will be so fed up with our vassalage that we decide to rejoin the EU as a full member – with greatly increased budget contributions and a whole swathe of new EU law to obey. The United States of Europe will have taken shape during our “wilderness years” using our money (“Britgeld” seems to be an appropriate term), but without our political input. No taxation without representation? What a joke.


Not only does the backstop carve out Northern Ireland as an EU province and set a border in the Irish Sea, it creates a partial “customs union” that requires us to implement EU trade tariffs and policy with no decision-making powers. Under highly restrictive “non-regression clauses”, the UK also agrees to implement all EU environmental, competition, state aid and tax harmonisation laws, with the unelected Joint Committee and the ECJ once again able to punish us for any perceived backsliding. British farmers will be locked into a subsidy regime well below support received by EU27 farmers, who nevertheless retain tariff-free access to the UK. British agriculture would be decimated. It means we could not support British businesses, give ourselves a competitive edge in new technologies where we excel, strike independent trade deals or diverge in key policy areas such as goods regulations and tax. Free EU access to UK fisheries is set down as a marker for negotiation in the future “deal”.


The third lock: the “future partnership”
Anyone expecting the EU27 to give up the immense advantages they gain under the backstop is delusional. Retaining tariff-free access to the UK market and effective control of UK trade and competition policy must be nirvana for them. To ensure they reap the full benefit, there is the third and final lock in the Withdrawal Agreement. Unless we agree to a “future partnership” as set out in the political declaration, the backstop will endure in perpetuity.

The Political Declaration replicates all the onerous “non-regression” clauses of the backstop and requires even more surrender of sovereignty via participation in and funding of the EU’s aerospace and defence programmes, free access to UK waters for EU fishermen, a full customs union and common trade policy, free movement by the backdoor under “mobility” clauses, EU control of UK agriculture via the state aid rules and in general full adherence to the acquis communautaire in all policy areas.
Including mainland UK in the backstop is a UK choice,not an EU and not an Irish choice. When are you going to appreciate that actions and positions have consequences?
Allowing the DUP tail to wag the HoC dog,has consequences.
 

anotherkiwi

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If you are a EU citizen you can be a public servant in France. That means just over a thousand people from the UK are public servants here. This week there was a couple of school teachers in Limoges on TV explaining their great distress. The government has however passed legislation which will allow them to remain public servants.
 
Oct 25, 2006
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Germany is 2 leaders away from a far right government. Their immigration problem is a genuine ticking time bomb. If their economy dips...
You've seriously misread Germany. Yes they have their minority of far right yobs, just as we've had with the BNP et al, but they've at last learned a very harsh and long lasting lesson from history. They won't go there again now that they've realised they can achieve the same ends peacefully.

And they don't have an immigration problem. Some decades ago they imported well over three million Turks who they very successfully integrated into their society. Then they imported the whole of East Germany which had developed into an entirely different culture. So what makes you think they can't cope with a mere million current immigrants?

What Germany has been doing since WW2 is a copy of what made the USA such a huge success, and has been making the German economy the most successful in the recent world. That is opening the door to everyone willing to participate and using their combined talents to succeed.
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Yippee!!

That'll teach us to get all snotty about the EU.
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Its not going to happen though Tommie.???
My bet would now be May's deal to collapse... And then ref 2?? (With remain or no deal as options)
JC will ask for a GE but it wont get called.
Assuming that is we can extend Art 50 long enough to arrange ref2... Which EU will grab with both greedy mits..!!
 

anotherkiwi

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Jan 26, 2015
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You've seriously misread Germany. Yes they have their minority of far right yobs, just as we've had with the BNP et al, but they've at last learned a very harsh and long lasting lesson from history. They won't go there again now that they've realised they can achieve the same ends peacefully.

And they don't have an immigration problem. Some decades ago they imported well over three million Turks who they very successfully integrated into their society. Then they imported the whole of East Germany which had developed into an entirely different culture. So what makes you think they can't cope with a mere million current immigrants?

What Germany has been doing since WW2 is a copy of what made the USA such a huge success, and has been making the German economy the most successful in the recent world. That is opening the door to everyone willing to participate and using their combined talents to succeed.
.
He doesn't read the German press... Same in Spain, there are still people alive who remember - some are nostalgic, the majority horrified.
 

Fingers

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If you are a EU citizen you can be a public servant in France. That means just over a thousand people from the UK are public servants here. This week there was a couple of school teachers in Limoges on TV explaining their great distress. The government has however passed legislation which will allow them to remain public servants.

What?
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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You've seriously misread Germany. Yes they have their minority of far right yobs, just as we've had with the BNP et al, but they've at last learned a very harsh and long lasting lesson from history. They won't go there again now that they've realised they can achieve the same ends peacefully.

And they don't have an immigration problem. Some decades ago they imported well over three million Turks who they very successfully integrated into their society. Then they imported the whole of East Germany which had developed into an entirely different culture. So what makes you think they can't cope with a mere million current immigrants?

What Germany has been doing since WW2 is a copy of what made the USA such a huge success, and has been making the German economy the most successful in the recent world. That is opening the door to everyone willing to participate and using their combined talents to succeed.
.
Do you make this up or read it somewhere flecc. Germany has a colosal migrant crisis.
All Germans I have met have all moaned, not about the immigrants themselves but the loss of identity within Germany. A group I met in Italy last year actually said there was no point going back to Berlin... Its not Berlin anymore. I, m not passing judgement either way but these were middle class, relatively affluent Germans(and a couple of Austrians) expressing severe dismay about where country had gone.
Take off your rose coloured specs Flecc. All is far from well in EU.
Italy has no better standard of living than in 1999.The economy in Greece has shrunk by a third since 2008.Spain has 35% youth unemployment. France I dont need to say anything.
The place is rife for social unrest.
The outlook for the Euro is at best demanding, for it to survive another 20 years needs all kinds of new integrated policies.(as Macron has identified) But just as Macron has faced massive dissent so will EU when they try and introduce legislation to get Italy,Greece etc back on trackand helped directly( common aid, fiscal policies etc) the northern Europeans will not tolerate it. What we have seen in france is over fuel tax to help country meet green targets. Wait until France /Germany etc start paying for welfare in Italy, Greece and Spain.
I, m not saying its doomed but it certainly could be. Just passing everything off as "ok" is not seeing EU as it really is.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/mi...three-years-after-merkels-fateful-call-136397

Oh ofcourse Germany doesnt have a migrant crisis. Flecc says so.
 
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Fingers

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You've seriously misread Germany. Yes they have their minority of far right yobs, just as we've had with the BNP et al, but they've at last learned a very harsh and long lasting lesson from history. They won't go there again now that they've realised they can achieve the same ends peacefully.

And they don't have an immigration problem. Some decades ago they imported well over three million Turks who they very successfully integrated into their society. Then they imported the whole of East Germany which had developed into an entirely different culture. So what makes you think they can't cope with a mere million current immigrants?

What Germany has been doing since WW2 is a copy of what made the USA such a huge success, and has been making the German economy the most successful in the recent world. That is opening the door to everyone willing to participate and using their combined talents to succeed.
.

The Turks weren't immigrants. They were cheap workers and never had legal status to stay.

This 'mere' million has caused a lot of friction and will continue to do so.

The 3 million eastern Europeans that came here when 13 thousand were forecast in 2000 changed this country forever. I suspect the same will happen to Germany.

All good till the economy dips then we will see what happens.

East Germans were still Germans. A 35 year gap didn't stop them being Germans.
 

Fingers

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anotherkiwi

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Do you make this up or read it somewhere flecc. Germany has a colosal migrant crisis.
All Germans I have met have all moaned, not about the immigrants themselves but the loss of identity within Germany. A group I met in Italy last year actually said there was no point going back to Berlin... Its not Berlin anymore. I, m not passing judgement either way but these were middle class, relatively affluent Germans(and a couple of Austrians) expressing severe dismay about where country had gone.
Take off your rose coloured specs Flecc. All is far from well in EU.
Italy has no better standard of living than in 1999.The economy in Greece has shrunk by a third since 2008.Spain has 35% youth unemployment. France I dont need to say anything.
The place is rife for social unrest.
Read the German press, of course there are problems absorbing 1.2 million people who don't speak the language. But Germans will be Germans and they are working on it. 20% of the German population has migrant origins.

Italians are always complaining about something, in fact most peoples from southern Europe are always complaining. But not about the weather...

Here is a map to help you understand unemployment in Spain:



The areas in France where people are very disappointed (often for good reason) are surprise, surprise ones where the FN gets its best scores in elections. That a tiny majority have decided violence is the only solution to paying the hire purchase on the car which they bought and which is beyond their means is another issue. A movement based on fake news and conspiracy theories now where have we seen that before? A French philosopher recently said "Macron is hardly Louis the sixteenth"... The current crisis is the result of the pathetic politics of the previous president.
 
Oct 25, 2006
41,388
2,173
Do you make this up or read it somewhere flecc. Germany has a colosal migrant crisis.
All Germans I have met have all moaned, not about the immigrants themselves but the loss of identity within Germany. A group I met in Italy last year actually said there was no point going back to Berlin... Its not Berlin anymore. I, m not passing judgement either way but these were middle class, relatively affluent Germans(and a couple of Austrians) expressing severe dismay about where country had gone.
Take off your rose coloured specs Flecc. All is far from well in EU.
Italy has no better standard of living than in 1999.The economy in Greece has shrunk by a third since 2008.Spain has 35% youth unemployment. France I dont need to say anything.
The place is rife for social unrest.
The outlook for the Euro is at best demanding, for it to survive another 20 years needs all kinds of new integrated policies.(as Macron has identified) But just as Macron has faced massive dissent so will EU when they try and introduce legislation to get Italy,Greece etc back on trackand helped directly( common aid, fiscal policies etc) the northern Europeans will not tolerate it. What we have seen in france is over fuel tax to help country meet green targets. Wait until France /Germany etc start paying for welfare in Italy, Greece and Spain.
I, m not saying its doomed but it certainly could be. Just passing everything off as "ok" is not seeing EU as it really is.
Just your familiar rant all over again!

Just because people moan about change doesn't mean failure. It's just part of the process of getting accustomed. The Germans moaned and bitterly complained about the three million Turks they imported long ago. Then they got used to them, started marrying them and have now integrated.

As I said, just like the USA and its mongrel mix of peoples.
.
 

Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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If you are a EU citizen you can be a public servant in France. That means just over a thousand people from the UK are public servants here. This week there was a couple of school teachers in Limoges on TV explaining their great distress. The government has however passed legislation which will allow them to remain public servants.
Lets hope the legislation keeps them both happy.
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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The Turks weren't immigrants. They were cheap workers and never had legal status to stay.

This 'mere' million has caused a lot of friction and will continue to do so.

The 3 million eastern Europeans that came here when 13 thousand were forecast in 2000 changed this country forever. I suspect the same will happen to Germany.

All good till the economy dips then we will see what happens.

East Germans were still Germans. A 35 year gap didn't stop them being Germans.
East Germans were Prussians, and were as "German" and or as different as the Bavarians ,or as close as the Scots are to English .They would not have seen themselves as German until 1860s . Nationalism in the UK sense was very late in coming to Germany. But of course they are a highly organised people and take to these new fangled ideas with enthusiasm.
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Just your familiar rant all over again!

Just because people moan about change doesn't mean failure. It's just part of the process of getting accustomed. The Germans moaned and bitterly complained about the three million Turks they imported long ago. Then they got used to them, started marrying them and have now integrated.

As I said, just like the USA and its mongrel mix of peoples.
.
And you have your normal blinkers and rose coloured specs. Yes, perhaps problems are not insurnountable but just claiming "Germany has learnt its lessin" and "does not have a migrant crisis" is burying your head in the sand upto your arse.
 

anotherkiwi

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Jan 26, 2015
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Lets hope the legislation keeps them both happy.
You should be happy that the French government is looking after the interests of all UK citizens who have decided to live here and work as public servants.
 
Oct 25, 2006
41,388
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The Turks weren't immigrants. They were cheap workers and never had legal status to stay.
Invited or not, they were still immigrants and Germany has happily kept them

This 'mere' million has caused a lot of friction and will continue to do so.
See this reply, the friction is temporary so irrelevant.

The 3 million eastern Europeans that came here when 13 thousand were forecast in 2000 changed this country forever. I suspect the same will happen to Germany.
It was nearer half that, the whole of immigration from the world into the UK in the relevant period was a bit over 3 million and very large numbers of East Europeans have returned to their homelands.

Of course immigration changes countries, but history shows that is always for the better. Remember, we supposed Britons are all immigrants, many relatively recent too.
.
 
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Fingers

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Invited or not, they were still immigrants and Germany has happily kept them



See this reply, the friction is temporary so irrelevant.



It was nearer half that, the whole of immigration from the world into the UK in the relevant period was a bit over 3 million and very large numbers of East Europeans have returned to their homelands.

Of course immigration changes countries, but history shows that is always for the better. Remember, we supposed Britons are all immigrants, many relatively recent too.
.
The aboriginals and Native indians say hi
 

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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Of course immigration changes countries, but history shows that is always for the better. Remember, we supposed Britons are all immigrants, many relatively recent too.
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True, but in the past, it took centuries to grow. The Single Market changed all that.
Immigration shoots up from about 10% to 15%-20% in just one generation.
 

jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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The Turks weren't immigrants. They were cheap workers and never had legal status to stay.

This 'mere' million has caused a lot of friction and will continue to do so.

The 3 million eastern Europeans that came here when 13 thousand were forecast in 2000 changed this country forever. I suspect the same will happen to Germany.

All good till the economy dips then we will see what happens.

East Germans were still Germans. A 35 year gap didn't stop them being Germans.
that is looking at the world through a very simplistic ethnocentric filter. Do you have any idea how much diversity there is amongst germans - or turks or english for that matter? I have less in common with you than i have with most turks I've met. and as for the "economic downturn" argument - yes, that's a useful moment for populist politicians to use "immigrants" as a way to focus gullible natives' attention away from their own failure. Hitler did that, much as trump and far right tories do. it does not make it a valid premise: immigrants create more wealth than they consume, unlike many locals who, living idle lives, naturally do not like being shown up for doing that.
 

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