Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

no, I don't think it's an exaggeration.
The corona virus does not usually kill so it can infect most of us quite quickly.
If you look at the current progression, 40% every 2 days, based on 10,000 infected today, it's conceivable that 70% of the population (45 millions) would be infected by 02-May.
Giving 10 days lead time between infection and detection, the disease would peak on the 12-May.
Our government would achieve its objective of 'herd immunity' (when the disease has passed its peak) 12 days later, by the end of May.
The danger for most of us will peak mid May.

Woosh, your analysis will ignore the fact that there will be a weakened population post infection, so that other, currently less virulent infections eg mrsa will have a field day . .". when troubles come, they come not singly but in battalions..." Recovery from any infection makes one more not less susceptible to others,..many of which are kept under control by other organisms.
The only sensible strategy is staggered infection ,with only a small cohort in hospital at any time.

 

[Nev]

Excellent article.

I thought so too, I'm not qualified to assess the methodology being used but it seemed reasonable. Something I was thinking about today was the following.

BJ and the two advisors said yesterday that the true number of cases in the UK was probably 5 to 10 thousand. So lets go for the higher figure of 10k. How likely is it that out of a UK population of 66 million and 10k with the virus there should be so many premier league footballers with it?

I can see some possible reasons why it might be the case and that the true figure is only 10k but one reason could be the actual number of cases is many times higher than 10k. What do the rest of you think?

 

[Wicky]

One thing I hope hospitals are well stocked up on is morphine to help alleviate suffering at the end for folk with pneumonia. :-(

Also borough councils will likely lose a lot of council tax revenue as when bills start coming out in Spring soon a lot of folk will struggle esp if they've lost jobs / been off sick. So hopefully they've got access to reserves / govt help.

 

[flecc]

How likely is it that out of a UK population of 66 million and 10k with the virus there should be so many premier league footballers with it?

It's all that cuddling and kissing each time a goal is scored, then not washing their hands immediately!

Plus spitting during the game

Not to mention that the communal hot tub after each game is hardly isolation.
.

 

[flecc]

Flecc.. the UK have done nothing worthwhile in Phase 2 containment. The Phase 1 response was good, with contact tracing etc, but Phase 2 is now poor.

I agree but think the government will announce more measures next week as it dawns how much others are doing.

Boris said he'll lead on this issue so he'll have to get going quickly now!

Anyway we usually follow the USA and they'll encourage that with their visitor door still open to us.
.

 

[Zlatan]

It all sounds like “dither and delay” from Boris Johnson to me. But that accusation has already been deployed, by Boris Johnson against Labour.

Think you are all being grossly unfair to BJ. There are sound arguments around timing of any actions and unseen consequences for them all. Banning football match attendence pushes folk into pubs to watch matches indoors where transmission rates are 5 times higher. Closing schools puts pressure on NHS, doctors / nurses wont want grandparents looking after kids so they, ll stay away.
Originally we were about 11 days behind Italy. (our first case 31st theirs 20th January) We are now 4 weeks behind them. Thats to credit of NHS, PHE and government. Time to shut up with the garbage. It doesnt help at all.

 

[Woosh]

The only sensible strategy is staggered infection ,with only a small cohort in hospital at any time.

that works up to a point.
most hospitals will soon become 'super super spreaders'.
Our government strategy is to keep infected people at home, give them some antiviral pills and tell them to stay in bed with plenty of hot drinks.

 

[Woosh]

Originally we were about 11 days behind Italy. (our first case 31st theirs 20th January) We are now 4 weeks behind them. Thats to credit of NHS, PHE and government. Time to shut up with the garbage. It doesnt help at all.

I think 4 weeks behind Italy is wildly optimistic. We purposefully keep the tests to a minimum but the progression of confirmed cases in Italy and in the UK is very similar (doubling every 4-5 days) and real hard fact.
Currently, we have 800 confirmed cases. Italy crossed the 800 mark on 27-Feb: 15 days ago.

 

[Woosh]

quote:
Germany’s Health Minister Jens Spahn recommended events with more than 1,000 people be stopped on the same day that the first German national died.
“It’s always the problem of a democratic system; you have to explain yourself to your voters on why this measure has to be taken,” he said. “You have to wait until it’s hurting.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/flatten-the-curve-coronavirus/2020/03/12/a648883c-6460-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html

We should listen to our Rory Stewart & Jeremy Hunt.

 

[flecc]

Our government strategy is to keep infected people at home, give them some antiviral pills and tell them to stay in bed with plenty of hot drinks.

How do we get the pills though, infect the doctor, infect the pharmacist?

And if it's by self diagnosis and request, I can see the pills running out as all our hypochondriacs jump in just in case.
.

 

[Woosh]

How do we get the pills though, infect the doctor, infect the pharmacist?

my friend got told to self isolate and get a relative to collect his pills from his local pharmacy.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

no, I don't think it's an exaggeration.
The corona virus does not usually kill so it can infect most of us quite quickly.
If you look at the current progression, 40% every 2 days, based on 10,000 infected today, it's conceivable that 70% of the population (45 millions) would be infected by 02-May.
Giving 10 days lead time between infection and detection, the disease would peak on the 12-May.
Our government would achieve its objective of 'herd immunity' (when the disease has passed its peak) 12 days later, by the end of May.
The danger for most of us will peak mid May.

Theres a lot of evidence emerging of patients who had recovered from covid 19 being reinfected. In other words immunity isnt maintained. I'm afraid "herd immunity" is a useful concept boris dredged up to rationalise avoidable deaths as something he thinks the general public "should get used to". It is sound tory logic, prioritising money over the lives of others. A saying about what comes around goes around comes to mind. A while back many tories made it clear how little they care about migrants drowning in the med as a result of right wing government policies in europe.

 

[Nev]

I think 4 weeks behind Italy is wildly optimistic.

I was rather surprised when they said this in the meeting yesterday. Everything I had heard and seen was that we were between 13 and 15 days behind Italy. I spoke to a couple of people about this and they thought the same thing. I was expecting one of the journalists to challenge this 4 weeks behind Italy figure but no one did.

 

[oldgroaner]

A rather good analogy to Boris's Pandemic plan

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238423966685057025

 

[flecc]

my friend got told to self isolate and get a relative to collect his pills from his local pharmacy.

That's my 88 year old brother in Dorset, my 71 year old sister in Bulgaria or my 81 year old sister in Pennsylvania then.

I'm in South London!

If I get infected guess I'll just have to take a cue from the lepers of old and wander down to the pharmacist ringing a handbell and calling out "Unclean, unclean."
.

 

[Nev]

Think you are all being grossly unfair to BJ.

As mentioned previously I am glad we have BJ and not someone like Trump in charge but I would rather Rory Stewart. My concern is that we seem to be doing things slightly differently to most other similar countries to ours. We are being asked to believe that our experts are better than everyone else's.

Perhaps they are but its going to take a few weeks to see if that's the case. In a way the easy option for the government would be to do what France, Germany etc are doing, and if it doesn't work they could say "Well we thought we were doing the right thing and that's what everyone else was doing".

If it doesn't work and our health system collapses but the likes of France and Germany manage to cope I don't think BJ will be able to talk his way out of it. At the end of the day he carries the can, and knowing how ruthless the Tory party is they would soon get rid of him, and probably the Chancellor would be the next PM.

 

[oldgroaner]

Interesting article in Forbes
Coronavirus: How Artificial Intelligence, Data Science And Technology Is Used To Fight The Pandemic

 

[flecc]

My concern is that we seem to be doing things slightly differently to most other similar countries to ours.

Of course, it's the precious sovereignty we voted for. We'll show coronavirus who's boss, not those EU countries.

probably the Chancellor would be the next PM.

No bad thing.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

Think you are all being grossly unfair to BJ. There are sound arguments around timing of any actions and unseen consequences for them all. Banning football match attendence pushes folk into pubs to watch matches indoors where transmission rates are 5 times higher. Closing schools puts pressure on NHS, doctors / nurses wont want grandparents looking after kids so they, ll stay away.
Originally we were about 11 days behind Italy. (our first case 31st theirs 20th January) We are now 4 weeks behind them. Thats to credit of NHS, PHE and government. Time to shut up with the garbage. It doesnt help at all.

Garbage eh? oh dear, do you imagine Boris is actually making any of the decisions? or even begins to comprehend the implications?
Time to shut up with the garbage. It doesnt help at all.

And of course there is evidence of people who have been cured have become reinfected, in other words not acquired immunity by exposure.

 

[oldgroaner]

As mentioned previously I am glad we have BJ and not someone like Trump in charge but I would rather Rory Stewart. My concern is that we seem to be doing things slightly differently to most other similar countries to ours. We are being asked to believe that our experts are better than everyone else's.

Perhaps they are but its going to take a few weeks to see if that's the case. In a way the easy option for the government would be to do what France, Germany etc are doing, and if it doesn't work they could say "Well we thought we were doing the right thing and that's what everyone else was doing".

If it doesn't work and our health system collapses but the likes of France and Germany manage to cope I don't think BJ will be able to talk his way out of it. At the end of the day he carries the can, and knowing how ruthless the Tory party is they would soon get rid of him, and probably the Chancellor would be the next PM.

There is of course a distinct possibility that there we have no actual "experts" at least any that have the experience and wisdom to make accurate decisions and what we have is people capable only of gambling using "Best guess" scenarios.
This isn't their fault, but certainly the only people with actual experience of even limited success against the Virus are the Chinese, and their advice should be followed as closely as our circumstances permit.