Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Looks to me like the megapacks need better fire suppression capabilities.
There's not much that can be done without taking up lots more space and inordinate cost increases, lithium battery fires resist suppression. The real answer we already know, better cell reliability and consistency so the fire doesn't start in the first instance. The industry learnt that the hard way with all the laptop fires of some years ago, Tesla learnt it the hard way with their earlier car fires.

Trouble is they haven't yet got the capacity to make enough of their latest generation cells so have still been dependent on outside supplies to equip the huge expansion due to the runaway successes of their model 3 and these megapacks.

They and others will get there, but it takes more time than the rapidly increasing demand allows. Meanwhile they aren't hurting anyone, brigades just need to learn to keep the surroundings cool and not try to put out the fire since that just prolongs it.
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sjpt

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Jun 8, 2018
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Bad sign today of cases increasing. Only one graph point so far, but that is from the 7 day smoothed data. We were expecting increases around now from the reduced lockdown last month. Sadly it seems keeping ones fingers crossed doesn't have as much effect against Covid as we had hoped.

 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Bad sign today of cases increasing. Only one graph point so far, but that is from the 7 day smoothed data. We were expecting increases around now from the reduced lockdown last month. Sadly it seems keeping ones fingers crossed doesn't have as much effect against Covid as we had hoped.
The highlighted are both assumptions, best be patient.

With the more infectious Delta variant spreading at the same time, it's impossible for us to accurately judge the precise cause of any increase.
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Danidl

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"With the more infectious Delta variant spreading at the same time, it's impossible for us to accurately judge the precise cause of any increase."
..I cannot understand this comment. Delta Variant is the current CV19. ,And is now endemic all over the globe. It apparently surfaced in India, and the with its customary cavalier attitude, it found an epicentre in the UK, from where it has spread around the Western World
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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"With the more infectious Delta variant spreading at the same time, it's impossible for us to accurately judge the precise cause of any increase."
..I cannot understand this comment. Delta Variant is the current CV19. ,And is now endemic all over the globe. It apparently surfaced in India, and the with its customary cavalier attitude, it found an epicentre in the UK, from where it has spread around the Western World
And I don't understand your reply. Are you saying that now there is only the Delta variant and no other Covid-19 variety in existence?

If there are other varieties that can be caught, and there are, my comment makes perfect sense, the spread of the more infectious Delta accounting for an infection increase due to its greater infectiousness.
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jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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And I don't understand your reply. Are you saying that now there is only the Delta variant and no other Covid-19 variety in existence?

If there are other varieties that can be caught, and there are, my comment makes perfect sense, the spread of the more infectious Delta accounting for an infection increase due to its greater infectiousness.
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You would make an outstanding violinist on the titanic (if they decided to redo it , DiCaprio is getting a bit old). I'm more a "did we check the lifeboats" kind of person. To be fair, between the conservative and lib dems coalition governments that have led us to this point, were all ****** regardless.
 
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oldgroaner

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You would make an outstanding violinist on the titanic (if they decided to redo it , DiCaprio is getting a bit old). I'm more a "did we check the lifeboats" kind of person. To be fair, between the conservative and lib dems coalition governments that have led us to this point, were all ****** regardless.
"If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs
Then you have no idea of the seriousness of the situation"

We are at the moment in the Covid War when the officer in charge says confidently
"It's quiet out there"
And the senior medical offer Says nothing, just rolls his eyes in response :cool:
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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"If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs
Then you have no idea of the seriousness of the situation"
I have every idea of how serious the situation is, much less than imagined. As you know I've maintained all along that Covid is being greatly exaggerated, here's how much:

In the three years prior to 2020 the average total of all UK deaths was 535,000 per annum

In 2020 that rose sharply to 608,000. That's an increase of 73,000 deaths due to 10 months of Covid-19. We can expand that to 88,000 to assume a full year of Covid in 2020.

Even if we take that hypothetical number of 88,000, it's a 48% exaggeration of the circa 130,000 deaths we were being told at the end of the year. If we use the actual 73,000 deaths, the reported 130,000 is a 78% exaggeration

And even the government quietly confirm this is true, reporting a total of 72,178 confirmed deaths due to Covid-19 at 31st December: Information Link

As I repeatedly said, putting Covid on the death certificate was just far too convenient when the UK law insists a doctor must enter an exact cause. It still is, so the distortion continues and the grand total of 154,000 reported Covid deaths will again be proven to be untrue.
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oyster

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Could look at this many ways:

Robin and Viv Silverthorne, from Worthing in Sussex, were flying to Cancun, Mexico, yesterday when they found out mid-air that the country was being placed on the red list.
Robin says the couple spent hours on the phone trying to speak to their airline "without success" before making the decision to come home after just a day to avoid paying for a quarantine hotel.
He told the BBC: "It's not just us, there was a plane full of holidaymakers in the same boat, some with children who will now have to pay thousands to quarantine on return.
"We have only just secured a return flight via Miami tomorrow. We have essentially paid a total of £8,000 for a day trip to Mexico."
He says the couple had done their research and just wanted a "nice holiday" - but that the latest changes to the rules had left Viv in tears.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58100523

If they could afford £8,000, is it unreasonable to think they might just as well have stayed and paid for quarantine?

The specific change might not have been predictable, but surely everyone realises that such changes are possible and, to some extent, likely?

On Thursday, Mr Shapps sought to reassure British holidaymakers that the traffic light system would now be reviewed every three weeks - compared with once a week last summer and more recent ad-hoc changes - because of the number of people in the UK and abroad who are fully vaccinated against Covid-19.


This is patently a case of NOT following the science. Committing to three weekly reviews implies that no matter how awful, how many variants of concern, what the scientific/medical advice says, they will stick to that schedule. (At least, until the next U-turn.)

If three-weekly reviews are the right way, how come the government has been doing ad hoc updates?

Moving from amber-plus to amber: France

Since when did traffic lights have an amber-plus phase?

The blue text simply amused me. I doubt they were in a Sunderland or Catalina.
 

jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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I have every idea of how serious the situation is, much less than imagined. As you know I've maintained all along that Covid is being greatly exaggerated, here's how much:

In the three years prior to 2020 the average total of all UK deaths was 535,000 per annum

In 2020 that rose sharply to 608,000. That's an increase of 73,000 deaths due to 10 months of Covid-19. We can expand that to 88,000 to assume a full year of Covid in 2020.

Even if we take that hypothetical number of 88,000, it's a 48% exaggeration of the circa 130,000 deaths we were being told at the end of the year. If we use the actual 73,000 deaths, the reported 130,000 is a 78% exaggeration

And even the government quietly confirm this is true, reporting a total of 72,178 confirmed deaths due to Covid-19 at 31st December: Information Link

As I repeatedly said, putting Covid on the death certificate was just far too convenient when the UK law insists a doctor must enter an exact cause. It still is, so the distortion continues and the grand total of 154,000 reported Covid deaths will again be proven to be untrue.
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I give you vigor's black box. No, really, I do. It's something well known to cruising sailors. It isimply say that theres no such thing as fortuitous conditions at sea. That the difference between life and death is backup plans c and d. With a virus that has the distinct potential to mutate into something like mers and kill 1/3 of those it infect (according to who) and that has dented life expectancy more than anything else since ww2 I think vigors black box beats boris' latest hunch every time.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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I give you vigor's black box. No, really, I do. It's something well known to cruising sailors. It isimply say that theres no such thing as fortuitous conditions at sea. That the difference between life and death is backup plans c and d. With a virus that has the distinct potential to mutate into something like mers and kill 1/3 of those it infect (according to who) and that has dented life expectancy more than anything else since ww2 I think vigors black box beats boris' latest hunch every time.
I'm not making any judgement on Covid itself, I just prefer the truth to distortion.

What good does exaggeration do, none that I can see. That Covid-19 has killed nearly 72,000 over the norm for 2020 deaths is serious enough, why publish nearly double that number and then retract with the truth 7 months later? All that does is strengthen the hand of the conspiracy theorists who insist Covid doesn't exist.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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and that has dented life expectancy more than anything else since ww2
Really? Clearly you haven't listened to the radio program I heard that was questioning why the increases in life expectancy have been stalling since around the millenium. That's almost two decades of denting before Covid arrived.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
52,763
30,349
Could look at this many ways:

Robin and Viv Silverthorne, from Worthing in Sussex, were flying to Cancun, Mexico, yesterday when they found out mid-air that the country was being placed on the red list.
Robin says the couple spent hours on the phone trying to speak to their airline "without success" before making the decision to come home after just a day to avoid paying for a quarantine hotel.
He told the BBC: "It's not just us, there was a plane full of holidaymakers in the same boat, some with children who will now have to pay thousands to quarantine on return.
"We have only just secured a return flight via Miami tomorrow. We have essentially paid a total of £8,000 for a day trip to Mexico."
He says the couple had done their research and just wanted a "nice holiday" - but that the latest changes to the rules had left Viv in tears.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58100523

If they could afford £8,000, is it unreasonable to think they might just as well have stayed and paid for quarantine?

The specific change might not have been predictable, but surely everyone realises that such changes are possible and, to some extent, likely?

On Thursday, Mr Shapps sought to reassure British holidaymakers that the traffic light system would now be reviewed every three weeks - compared with once a week last summer and more recent ad-hoc changes - because of the number of people in the UK and abroad who are fully vaccinated against Covid-19.

This is patently a case of NOT following the science. Committing to three weekly reviews implies that no matter how awful, how many variants of concern, what the scientific/medical advice says, they will stick to that schedule. (At least, until the next U-turn.)

If three-weekly reviews are the right way, how come the government has been doing ad hoc updates?

Moving from amber-plus to amber: France

Since when did traffic lights have an amber-plus phase?

The blue text simply amused me. I doubt they were in a Sunderland or Catalina.
I see a simple answer. Enjoy the Mexican holiday and on return, tell them where to stuff their enforced hotel isolation. Like everyone is now telling them where to stuff their silly fines.
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daveboy

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oyster

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Danidl

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And I don't understand your reply. Are you saying that now there is only the Delta variant and no other Covid-19 variety in existence?

If there are other varieties that can be caught, and there are, my comment makes perfect sense, the spread of the more infectious Delta accounting for an infection increase due to its greater infectiousness.
.
Unfortunately that is exactly what I am saying . The Delta variant has outcompeted every other CV19 version present currently.. So yes . Basically when talking about CV 19 , worldwide we are basically talking about Delta. The various national reference laboratories are sequencing samples continually, and while it is inevitable that there will be newer variants , and of course some people are getting infections from multiple variants The earliest strains had a typical viral load , and measurements of Delta show it to be 1200 times the viral payload on average of the Wuhan 2019 species. Now it didn't get this way in a single step and the intermediate strains were factors of 3 to 10 up on the original .... So three sets of evolutionary jumps we arrive at 1000.
 
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