Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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The problem in here is the stubborn refusal to accept that natural immunity from prior infection is at least as effective and probably more so, also resulting in far fewer deaths.
there are fewer those who benefit from natural immunity as a result of prior infection (10 millions to 15 millions, 25% top) than those who benefit from vaccines (46.2 millions, 70%), so vaccines are much more important in the fight against covid. A lot of those who got immunity purely from infection is even smaller because most of those previously infected will have got the vaccines as well.
 
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jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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I've never contested the benefits of the vaccines in reducing deaths and serious Covid illness, which is why I've had them myself and repeatedly posted that everyone should.

The problem in here is the stubborn refusal to accept that natural immunity from prior infection is at least as effective and probably more so, also resulting in far fewer deaths. That has been officially accepted and it shows in the UK's current policy of continuing with the vaccines and boosters but without any lockdown precautions.

Although lockdown precautions like masking and social distancing must have benefits, the way in which the UK public have co-operated with them has been lacking, greatly reducing their benefits. Since those who have not co-operated and contracted the virus have largely been unaffected while gaining the very effective and socially beneficial immunity from infection, I support the UK government's approach of letting them take the hit to gain that immunity which is at least equivalent to accepting the vaccines. It's what I've been advocating for well over a year.

The great majority of the most vulnerable to death from Covid are no longer with us, now residing in the death statistics, so the current policy will not cost us the high rate of deaths previously seen. This is exactly what I've been consistently arguing since Summer 2020, take the hit and get it over with early. As London has clearly shown, that does not result in any greater death rate, it merely redistributes, more deaths earlier, less later against more virulent variants. That is what the government's chief statistician has belatedly accepted a little while ago, and it's probably behind the current approach.

Woosh, whether Covid-19 peters out early will also depend on whether the government holds its nerve and continues without any lockdown. If they panic and bring in lockdown precautions, reducing infections and the spread of natural immunity, Covid-19 could be around a lot longer.
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Almost all patients with covid in intensive care are unvaccinated.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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there are fewer those who benefit from natural immunity as a result of prior infection (10 millions to 15 millions, 25% top) than those who benefit from vaccines (46.2 millions, 70%), so vaccines are much more important in the fight against covid. A lot of those who got immunity purely from infection is even smaller because most of those previously infected will have got the vaccines as well.
You can't say that, simply because there were no vaccines in the first year of 2020 and it took many months of 2021 to get two jabs into a large number of arms. The ratio of protaction between the two is far more balanced than you seem to think.

You are also discounting how dangerous the vaccinated are.

An unvaccinated person catches covid and is much more likely to suffer symptoms than a vaccinated person. So they assume covid and may isolate or they get tested confirming it and isolate.

The vaccinated person who catches it since the vaccines fail to prevent that, is then likely to suffer little or no symptoms. So they merrily go on their way infecting everyone around them, since it's known that they are then just as infectious as anyone else with any variants.
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Danidl

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You can't say that, simply because there were no vaccines in the first year of 2020 and it took many months of 2021 to get two jabs into a large number of arms. The ratio of protaction between the two is far more balanced than you seem to think.

You are also discounting how dangerous the vaccinated are.

An unvaccinated person catches covid and is much more likley to suffer symptoms than a vaccinate person. So they assume Convd and may isolate or they get tested confirming it and isolate.

The vaccinate person who catches it since the vaccines fail to prevent that, is then likely to suffer little or no symptoms. So they merrily go on their way infecting everyone around them, since it's known that they are then just as infectious as anyone else with any variants.
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I can agree that the vaccinated person is likely more laissez-faire than the unvaccinated person of a year ago. I will admit to that of myself to an extent, although I take no joy now being in shops and I have not taken public transport for ages. The rest of your argument fails the reasonableness test.
An unvaccinated person who now gets infected, after having had a year full of opportunities to get vaccinated, is wilfully doing so, therefore their civic sense of responsibility will be lower than the average, so isolation will not be their priority. If they even take an antigen test,it will be with the intention of passing .
A vaccinated person who gets infected will on average have a milder lower intensity, even to the level of being asymptomatic infection. They are not producing as much virons as their unvaccinated peer, ON AVERAGE. However as the fraction of vaccinated increases so also will the number of opportunities for vaccinated people to infect other vaccinated and non vaccinated. If as you contest, a natural full covid induced immunity is superior to a vaccine , then letting the vaccinated slowly and sequentially get the full covid gives tge best of both worlds
The outcomes for those vaccinated people who get infected are significantly better than for unvaccinated, both in the severity, duration , transmission ratio.
So if anything , ...and this moves your argument on a notch. It would be better to ensure full vaccine and then no lockdowns and let the Covid rip through the population ... . The death rate and the severe ICU hospitalisation would be a factor of 40 down on current, and society can live with the smaller death rate
 

flecc

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So if anything , ...and this moves your argument on a notch. It would be better to ensure full vaccine and then no lockdowns and let the Covid rip through the population ... . The death rate and the severe ICU hospitalisation would be a factor of 40 down on current, and society can live with the smaller death rate
You do amuse me sometimes, that is exactly what I've been posting !

Preferably everybody accept the vaccines and whether accepted or not, take the hit if infected, i.e. letting it rip as you expressed it. As I posted, this with no lockdown is now the UK government's policy too and I think it ultimately the best.

However I do not support enforced vaccination which your comment on fully ensuring seems to imply.
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Nev

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May 1, 2018
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Almost all patients with covid in intensive care are unvaccinated.
Yes this is what people I know in the NHS have been telling me for months and it's why I will get the booster jab as soon as I can. I think I posted a while back, data coming out of Israel where they have been giving boosters a few months before we started showed that they were fairly close to 100% effective at keeping people out of hospital who had caught covid.

It's a shame that the vaccines aren't better at preventing people catching covid in the first place stats I have seen recently show that you are equally likely to catch covid and to then spread it to someone else whether you have been vaccinated or not. I think vaccination helps a little bit in this regard but not much.

The big advantage of the vaccines thought of course is that they prevent one getting really ill and requiring hospital treatment.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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It's a shame that the vaccines aren't better at preventing people catching covid in the first place stats I have seen recently show that you are equally likely to catch covid and to then spread it to someone else whether you have been vaccinated or not.
Indeed, but it can be turned to our advantage. As I've posted the current policy is vaccines but no lockdown and I support that, and Danidl indicates he approves too. We know that the natural immunity from infection is at least as effective as the immunity from the vaccines. So that policy of getting as many as possible vaccinated and then letting the infections rip to gain widespread natural immunity in addition is likely to be our best chance to minimise the harm covid is doing. It could conceivably stop Covid almost completely over time.

And of course with no lockdown measures, life meanwhile will be more pleasant. It is lockdown restrictions and not vaccines that have incurred the public's greatest anger, and still do to the extent of demonstrations and riots.
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oyster

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You OK OG?

Hessle fire: explosions heard as firefighters tackle huge blaze near Hull
Some residents evacuated and public told to avoid area as emergency services respond to incident
 

Danidl

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You do amuse me sometimes, that is exactly what I've been posting !

Preferably everybody accept the vaccines and whether accepted or not, take the hit if infected, i.e. letting it rip as you expressed it. As I posted, this with no lockdown is now the UK government's policy too and I think it ultimately the best.

However I do not support enforced vaccination which your comment on fully ensuring seems to imply.
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The nature of civilised debate is to identify and clarify any issues... . Just to make certain a few remaining points of difference remain.
1. I believe that that UKs entire handling of this has been cockamamie. They had to reduce the amount of virus exposure 18 months ago, because there was no way of letting it rip , which would have produced death rates of the order of 6%. So lockdowns were ultimately essential. Your NHS could not operate. They like nobody else could know that a more virulent strain would emerge ...although some of us,even on this forum even suspected or feared it might. They did attempt to brazen it out and go for herd immunity in those early-ish days. At every juncture since they have sought to reopen the economy with cumulatively bad results.
2. The vaccines are a life saver,and an economy saver ..any of them, or at least those used in Western Europe. Just to clarify, a breakover infection in a vaccinated individual might produce a peak viral load of infectious particles , similar in intensity to that of a non vaccinated individual, but it will be of much shorter duration at peak. Moreover the inflected vaccinated person is less likely to succumb to Long Covid ..Nature suggests a 50% improvement . The vaccinated individual is much less likely to even succumb, to a dose rate which would have infected the non vaxxes , and even if they do the duration is shorter ... Current Lancet But such is the virulence of Delta that if any member of a household succumbs, the rest are almost assured of being infected. . While I accept you probably agree, your comments over the last fortnight appeared ambiguous.
3.If we actually achieve 95+% plus fully vaccinated , then the case for fuller opening and herd immunity is arguable. But remember , only 10% of the UK population have had proper natural covid immunity., another 80% are full vaccine immunity acquired( depending on whether one defines 2 jabs as full). That currently leaves 10 million unprotected Note even 1/10 of the vaccinated population dont gain immunity so that brings the unprotected to 14 million. That indicates that I believe it is premature to let it rip....
4. I am actually opposed to mandatory vaccination, on an unwilling individual. I have no qualms about requiring those engaged in proximity to vulnerable people being sacked if they don't take it. We allow people to refuse blood transfusions on religious or ethical grounds, and to refuse life saving treatment ..so in so far as it is only themselves at risk,so be it.
 

Jesus H Christ

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Dec 31, 2020
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Watch out for the Botswana variant of COVID. It’s more infectious than the most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious,most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious,most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious standard COVID variants.

It‘s so infectious that you‘ve probably caught it from reading this message.
 
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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Watch out for the Botswana variant of COVID. It’s more infectious than the most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious,most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious,most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious, most infectious standard COVID variants.

It‘s so infectious that you‘ve probably caught it from reading this message.
It's the gaber one?

(Gaber - old word for joke.)
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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3.If we actually achieve 95+% plus fully vaccinated , then the case for fuller opening and herd immunity is arguable. But remember , only 10% of the UK population have had proper natural covid immunity., another 80% are full vaccine immunity acquired( depending on whether one defines 2 jabs as full). That currently leaves 10 million unprotected Note even 1/10 of the vaccinated population dont gain immunity so that brings the unprotected to 14 million. That indicates that I believe it is premature to let it rip....
Yes there is much of what you posted I agree with.

The ambiguity you note is represented by your paragraph 3 which I do not agree with for a number of reasons. Chief is the huge discrepancy between London (17%) and the rest of England. London after the initial big hit followed with a rapid decline in infections through the summer and into the early autumn and suffered less during the Alpha wave, all without the benefit of vaccines, while the rest of the country rapidly overtook us during that period, inevitable for not suffering the early hit and its benefits.

And we continued to benefit more when delta arrived, despite our 35% less London acceptance of two doses than the country as a whole. Remember, the whole country's 80% includes London's 17% of the population, so the true level of vaccine acceptance of the rest of the country is much higher than 80%.

Until you accept the facts of what is actually happening and stop trying to disprove those facts with theoretical numbers, you'll never understand what is really going on.

London:

Population 2021 = 9.4 million
Population within current vaccination ages = 8.46 million
Population having received two doses = 5.54 million (updated three hours ago)

N.B. I excluded the youngest age groups from the population within current vaccination ages since they have only just begun getting the vaccines.
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oldgroaner

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You OK OG?

Hessle fire: explosions heard as firefighters tackle huge blaze near Hull
Some residents evacuated and public told to avoid area as emergency services respond to incident
Fine thanks, Hessle is about four miles away to the west, and from the news I see it is in Thompson's Plastics Factory that used to supply the company with vacuum formed Bath shells and panels, my memory on visits to the factory is that they have large stock of Acrylic and Styrene sheeting, plus obviously resin ,catalyst, solvents and fibreglass in many forms stored on site it's likely that flaming fragments with be thrown up to be carried downwind.
No wonder people are being evacuated locally.
Let us hope no one is injured or killed.
I knew many who worked there, hopefully they are retired and safe.
 

jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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It's the gaber one?

(Gaber - old word for joke.)
Nu I gather with 32 mutations to its spike protein, and likely to evade monoclonal antibodies. What's weirder, as a virologist called francois balloux suggest, is that it likely originated from scratch in the body of one immunocompromised patient (I imagine hiv given its botswana)
 
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guerney

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Sep 7, 2021
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Interesting post written by a Doctor:

 

oyster

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Nu I gather with 32 mutations to its spike protein, and likely to evade monoclonal antibodies. What's weirder, as a virologist called francois balloux suggest, is that it likely originated from scratch in the body of one immunocompromised patient (I imagine hiv given its botswana)
'Twas meant to be a capital pun rather than a serious suggestion that it is a joke. :)
 
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guerney

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