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Gas didn't reach its peak output until 2008. At least 10% of the grid output came on in terms of gas CCGT between 2000 and 2008, so unless that investment was lying idle in the 1990s, it was built after that time. In any case, CCGT plant, when properly maintained will last forty to forty-five years.
They are much cheaper to refurbish than some other forms of generation. Wind Turbines have a comparatively short lifespan, being rendered useless in thirty years. The investment required to replace them is far more than it is to replace gas turbines, partly because each gas generator set is larger in terms of its output, so there are fewer units to work on, and CCGT plant are not located on top of a huge exposed stalk hundreds of feet above the sea.
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Offshore wind costs £3 million per megawatt to build and install, whereas CCGT costs between £0.7 million to £1 million per megawatt to install.
Gas is cheap to build and repair. Wind is not.
Gas plant have a longer working life than wind.
Gas plant are reliable and not subject to output fluctuations
Gas plant are flexible and can be turned on and off without severe penalties in terms of reliability.
If we fracked our shale gas and nationalised it, we would have a reliable price, and abundant power. It has been estimated that we have sixty to a hundred years of national supply under our feet.
I am not advocating for ending wind generation - not at all.
I am arguing with your assertion that we will ever just dump gas before we have an adequate flexible supply for periods of low wind. This is a point that you have never engaged with except by coming up with your Dan Dare fantasy about battery storage.
Battery storage is all very well for short term dips in low carbon generation.It can NEVER be used to supply the lost wind power during winter and summer high pressure periods when the Polar Jet Stream moves to the north of the British Isles leaving us with next to no wind for days and often two or three weeks at a time. The January dip this year lost us almost 12 Terrawatts of wind power. You laugh at my 'back of the envelope' estimate, but you offer no detailed explanation of why it is far wrong. The data is available on how much wind output we actually had on the site I referenced. Instead
you offer us your faith in the idea that the Chinese will come up with some technology.... You should change your screen name to 'Dan Dare - Pilot of the future' the title of a 1950s fantasy scifi character. You might remember it. It used to be in a boys comic called 'The Eagle', in the 1950s. This seems to be where half of your pie in the sky nonsense comes from.
2035 is only ten years away. We have nothing to replace gas for lengthy low wind periods or to balance the grid during wind lulls. Nuclear build takes vastly more than that. Sizewell took 12 years, and Hinkley Point has taken 15 and is not ready yet. The cost of the investment for these plant is vast and the electricity cost will be huge. In 2023 the price was to be £128.09 per Megawatt. It is also to be index linked to a price from 2012, when the investment was conceived, so it will rise with future inflation.
Another problem you have not noticed - at least you have not mentioned it, is that nuclear power has to be kept on stream. You can not turn it on and off like you can CCGT. This makes it unsuitable as a grid balancing system. Just like the old retired coal stations, if you turn them on and off and on and off the steam system suffers metal fatigue from expansion and contraction.
How can you base a national power production system on this level of variable generation? Look at the values on the vertical axis and remember that we are generally using 25Gw to 30 Gw in summer.
Above all, wind is unreliable. Look at these charts and seriously tell me we can rely on this for our constant need of power.
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Source:
https://gridwatch.co.uk/wind
