at this rate of decline, the £ is going to be on parity with the Euro by the end of the year.

I wonder how long Mrs May is going to play chickens with the EU. They hold all the good cards at the moment.

These threads seem to be largely Remain voters.

But anyone who voted leave.

Do they regret voting leave?

Would they vote remain now?

If they are happy voting leave,are they happy with Brexit so far?

What do they expect to be achieved by Brexit?

KudosDave

...

What do they expect to be achieved by Brexit?

KudosDave

 

what does not kill us will make us stronger.

at this rate of decline, the £ is going to be on parity with the Euro by the end of the year.

I wonder how long Mrs May is going to play chickens with the EU. They hold all the good cards at the moment.

 

Except there is a feeling now in Germany that their open door policy to migrants is causing problems and many Germans are questioning unlimited migration into Germany.

In some respects the migrants into Germany are more of a problem than those coming into the UK. Most in the UK are employed whereas many in Germany are in hostels with no work,that is a recipe for radicalisation problems.

Why can't we get together with our EU neighbours and come up with a formula for restricting immigration both within the EU and from non EU. Why do we have to break from the EU to achieve common sense.

The problem with unlimited free movement is that migrants will always be attracted to the country with the best prospects and that country will overfill relative to the others.

I don't care what anyone says most people voted Brexit to stop immigrants,the remain vote would have won easily if Cameron had come back with a deal on migration.

Maybe Merkel and May will crack a deal to overcome this stupid and blinkered Brexit,which is causing economic problems that will get worse.

If you lose your job because you voted Brexit,you only have yourself to blame.

KudosDave

Germany has a big problem with recruiting people to work in boring factory jobs that most white Germans don't want to do, like working in a chicken slaughterhouse. Imagine you have to stand up and chop up a few thousand chickens a day in 5 degrees centigrade. Refugees will more or less accept any job going.

at this rate of decline, the £ is going to be on parity with the Euro by the end of the year.

I wonder how long Mrs May is going to play chickens with the EU. They hold all the good cards at the moment.

 

I cannot be that pessimistic,that would mean ebikes going up by 20-30 % in the UK,that would be the death of the ebike industry in the UK.

The bike world is not good at the moment,these price rises are not good news.

KudosDave

Germany has a big problem with recruiting people to work in boring factory jobs that most white Germans don't want to do, like working in a chicken slaughterhouse. Imagine you have to stand up and chop up a few thousand chickens a day in 5 degrees centigrade. Refugees will more or less accept any job going.

 

Germany accepted many Turkish immigrants to work mainly in the auto industry,

KudosDave

It's not only Germany that have a problem with labour. I am trying to find a full time accounts person and more importantly a mechanic. I would take anyone from a completely green apprentice to a fully experienced electric bicycle engineer. There is simply no one available. It seems the only way I can find anyone to fill this post is to bring someone in from Rumania! The end of free movement of labour would be a complete disaster.

 

I have advertised in Bike Biz, the local Job Centres (that was tricky) and even started a post on Pedlecs. I have had one response.... from Switzerland!

 

Fortunatley Claud my tech manager has a freind who is considering coming to the UK to work for us.

Germany has a big problem with recruiting people to work in boring factory jobs that most white Germans don't want to do, like working in a chicken slaughterhouse. Imagine you have to stand up and chop up a few thousand chickens a day in 5 degrees centigrade. Refugees will more or less accept any job going.

 

Germany is a remarkably old fashioned country in certain respects. Married German women generally don't go out to work, especially if they have children, so they have an intrinsically greater need for immigrants to fill that hole. The dominance of males on even the lightest of production lines in Germany is very noticeable. Seeing production lines in Staedtler Pencils with only rows of German men watching the streams of pencils passing along is remarkable to our eyes, since here that function would certainly be dominated by women.

.

I cannot be that pessimistic,that would mean ebikes going up by 20-30 % in the UK,that would be the death of the ebike industry in the UK.

The bike world is not good at the moment,these price rises are not good news.

KudosDave

 

I must say that scenario is not impossible. I reckon 10% price rise equals 10% lower sales. 20% price rise equals 30% lower sales. 30% price rise equals the death of the industry.

Brexit is the triumph of vanity over common sense.

I must say that scenario is not impossible. I reckon 10% price rise equals 10% lower sales. 20% price rise equals 30% lower sales. 30% price rise equals the death of the industry.

Brexit is the triumph of vanity over common sense.

 

I'm not sure it works like that... the main problem will be that if eBikes are going up by a big jump, they won't be the only thing in the retail market that is experiencing this. Everything will go up, expect wages, so people will have less to spend.

 

But this could mean sales of eBikes actually go up, because more people look to save money on their transport costs. However yes, people might spend 20% less on their ebike, or might not go as fancy as they would, but I don't think price rises will kill the industry.

you are somewhat shielded from the worst effect of brexit in your segment of the market, your customers are among the well to do with large disposable income. Importers of Chinese bikes don't fare so well. Some of their customers will compare the cost of public transport to the benefit of own transport while others are still on a tight budget or stuck with the ridiculous £1,000 C2W schemes.

I agree Col, we have considered the impact and feel we could well see an increase in commuter style bikes sales. Any growth will probably be in the sub £1000 C2W class of bike.

 

Sorry Trex crossed posts, hopefully all segments will continue to grow!

Edited July 29, 20169 yr by Wisper Bikes

I have been told this week to create a 20" folding bike for the sensitive retail price of £699. Even at the lowest possible multiplicator of 1.5 based on $1.35, that leaves me with a budget of $466 per bike - if the Pound drops below that level in the new year, the whole spring season for woosh will be severely disrupted. That's just an example.

Perhaps you guys ought to sell your bikes on the continent. A weak pound should stimulate exports....or so the powers to be state. Great if we didn't need to import the parts to assemble here.

It's true, our bikes on the continent have not moved much in price, we sell to our O/S dealers in US$. I think a few of us are already considering making bikes here, the problem is, as you point out, that most of the components are made in Asia and we would still buy those in US$, so the gain would be relatively small.

Great if we didn't need to import the parts to assemble here.

 

Peugeot will probably be even more pleased they closed their Ryton UK factory earlier in the year, production now in Slovakia.

.

Ford announce similar problems..

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3714383/Now-Ford-blames-Brexit-warns-job-losses-rising-car-prices-750m-hit-Britain-s-decision-quit-EU.html

Think all motor manufacturers would have done due diligence and have relocation plans as part of their strategy.

I'm not sure it works like that... the main problem will be that if eBikes are going up by a big jump, they won't be the only thing in the retail market that is experiencing this. Everything will go up, expect wages, so people will have less to spend.

 

But this could mean sales of eBikes actually go up, because more people look to save money on their transport costs. However yes, people might spend 20% less on their ebike, or might not go as fancy as they would, but I don't think price rises will kill the industry.

 

Colin I think you mean 'except wages' but you could be right in that they will expect wages,hehe.

KudosDave

you are somewhat shielded from the worst effect of brexit in your segment of the market, your customers are among the well to do with large disposable income. Importers of Chinese bikes don't fare so well. Some of their customers will compare the cost of public transport to the benefit of own transport while others are still on a tight budget or stuck with the ridiculous £1,000 C2W schemes.

 

Trex,your wrong..even those with deep pockets and have the money are reluctant to part with it...its not about the money its a physchological barrier at the moment,this Brexit thing has shaken everybody into questioning even their lifestyle choices.

Maybe some brave politician should stand up and ask whether this is a good idea,its sort of 'emperors new clothes' syndrome,we need a little innocent boy to say 'he is naked'.

I have many friends who run small businesses,many voted Out,principally a protest vote,now they understand the full implications they don't want anything to do with Brexit,but they think its a done deal and cannot be reversed. It can be reversed today but who is brave enough to do a U turn and admit we made a mistake.

Even the newspapers who stirred up the Leave vote are starting to change the tone to 'maybe',the weight of bad news is becoming overwhelming and difficult to ignore.

I heard a Mum moaning in the supermarket about how few Euros she got for the £,she clearly voted Leave because Boris said we could spend the money on the NHS,but would now have voted Remain if she knew it would hit her holiday Euros...how thick is that!!!

KudosDave

yup, bad news Trex... its was at 1.3192 for us from our broker yesterday.

 

They also sent us this warning yesterday..

 

"Data compiled by Bloomberg suggests a 100% probability that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut its key interest rate next Thursday, 4th August.

 

If the BoE does cut rates, this is likely to cause sterling to weaken against currencies including the euro and US dollar."

 

So it looks like its going to get worse for UK imports.

I just got $1.3285

I just got $1.3285

 

That's quite a good rate... who do you use?

 

Ours is currently saying...

Rate:

GBP /USD 1.31183275

That's quite a good rate... who do you use?

 

Ours is currently saying...

Rate:

GBP /USD 1.31183275

Revolut.

the way revolut works is incompatible with commercial transactions. You can only get this rate because it has a reward element for using their prepaid Mastercard for the transaction. Normally, the fx market reports a bid price and an ask price either side of the market rate, the difference to the market rate is about 0.03%, it's the broker's own cost of accessing the market to buy/sell the amount for you. For commercial transactions, the broker's commission adds about 0.3% to the market rate, eg commision on purchase or selling of $100k is about $300.

Edited July 30, 20169 yr by trex