Prices of the electricity we use to charge

[Woosh]

In the next 10 years, the planned mix will be:

Offshore Wind68 GW(↑ from ~39 GW)
Onshore Wind37 GW(↑ from ~15 GW)
Solar PV63 GW(↑ from ~28 GW)
Nuclear9 GW(↑ from ~8 GW)
Gas CCUS9 GW(↑ from ~1 GW)
BECCS2 GW(↑ from ~0 GW)
Hydrogen Generation5 GW(↑ from ~0 GW)
Energy from Waste2 GW(Same)
Interconnectors21 GW(↑ from ~16 GW)

We will still be buying a fair amount (21GW) from Europe.

 

[Tony1951]

Most of that capacity (currently 33GW) was built in the 90s, due to be closed or phased out in the next 10 years. Remaining stations will only run as emergency backup.
From 2035, 99% of electricity supply will be from renewables. If you look at the return on investment, wind, solar and even geothermal pay much better than gas.

Gas didn't reach its peak output until 2008. At least 10% of the grid output came on in terms of gas CCGT between 2000 and 2008, so unless that investment was lying idle in the 1990s, it was built after that time. In any case, CCGT plant, when properly maintained will last forty to forty-five years.

They are much cheaper to refurbish than some other forms of generation. Wind Turbines have a comparatively short lifespan, being rendered useless in thirty years. The investment required to replace them is far more than it is to replace gas turbines, partly because each gas generator set is larger in terms of its output, so there are fewer units to work on, and CCGT plant are not located on top of a huge exposed stalk hundreds of feet above the sea.

EPRI Home

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) conducts research, development, and demonstration projects for the benefit of the public in the United States and internationally. As an independent, nonprofit organization for public interest energy and environmental research, we focus on electricity...

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.

Offshore wind costs £3 million per megawatt to build and install, whereas CCGT costs between £0.7 million to £1 million per megawatt to install.

Gas is cheap to build and repair. Wind is not.
Gas plant have a longer working life than wind.
Gas plant are reliable and not subject to output fluctuations
Gas plant are flexible and can be turned on and off without severe penalties in terms of reliability.

If we fracked our shale gas and nationalised it, we would have a reliable price, and abundant power. It has been estimated that we have sixty to a hundred years of national supply under our feet.


I am not advocating for ending wind generation - not at all.

I am arguing with your assertion that we will ever just dump gas before we have an adequate flexible supply for periods of low wind. This is a point that you have never engaged with except by coming up with your Dan Dare fantasy about battery storage.

Battery storage is all very well for short term dips in low carbon generation.It can NEVER be used to supply the lost wind power during winter and summer high pressure periods when the Polar Jet Stream moves to the north of the British Isles leaving us with next to no wind for days and often two or three weeks at a time. The January dip this year lost us almost 12 Terrawatts of wind power. You laugh at my 'back of the envelope' estimate, but you offer no detailed explanation of why it is far wrong. The data is available on how much wind output we actually had on the site I referenced. Instead you offer us your faith in the idea that the Chinese will come up with some technology.... You should change your screen name to 'Dan Dare - Pilot of the future' the title of a 1950s fantasy scifi character. You might remember it. It used to be in a boys comic called 'The Eagle', in the 1950s. This seems to be where half of your pie in the sky nonsense comes from.

2035 is only ten years away. We have nothing to replace gas for lengthy low wind periods or to balance the grid during wind lulls. Nuclear build takes vastly more than that. Sizewell took 12 years, and Hinkley Point has taken 15 and is not ready yet. The cost of the investment for these plant is vast and the electricity cost will be huge. In 2023 the price was to be £128.09 per Megawatt. It is also to be index linked to a price from 2012, when the investment was conceived, so it will rise with future inflation.

Another problem you have not noticed - at least you have not mentioned it, is that nuclear power has to be kept on stream. You can not turn it on and off like you can CCGT. This makes it unsuitable as a grid balancing system. Just like the old retired coal stations, if you turn them on and off and on and off the steam system suffers metal fatigue from expansion and contraction.

How can you base a national power production system on this level of variable generation? Look at the values on the vertical axis and remember that we are generally using 25Gw to 30 Gw in summer.

Above all, wind is unreliable. Look at these charts and seriously tell me we can rely on this for our constant need of power.




Source: https://gridwatch.co.uk/wind

 

[Tony1951]

Another key issue in these times of international strife with a power which has a lot of submarines and submarine capability -

Offshore gas pipelines, electricity cables and data cables will be a prime target for surreptitious, Russian meddling. This would not be true of shale gas under our own territory.

We are VERY exposed right now. Get in a supply of candles and portable solar power stations. Your life could change very rapidly if Starmer sent the troops to help Ukraine.

 

[Peter.Bridge]

Ucl working papers, for anyone that is interested

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sites/bartlett/files/the_role_of_natural_gas_in_electricity_prices_in_europe_updated_may_2023.pdf

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sites/bartlett/files/necc_working_paper_2_final_pdf_with_cover40.pdf

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sites/bartlett/files/ucl_isr_necc_wp3_with_cover_final_070922.pdf

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sites/bartlett/files/navigating_the_energy-climate_crises_working_paper_4_-_green_power_pool_v2-2_final.pdf

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sites/bartlett/files/wp5_regulatory_impact_assessment_in_an_era_of_energy_transition.pdf

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sites/bartlett/files/working_paper6_generating_surplus.pdf

 

[Tony1951]

In the next 10 years, the planned mix will be:

Offshore Wind68 GW(↑ from ~39 GW)
Onshore Wind37 GW(↑ from ~15 GW)
Solar PV63 GW(↑ from ~28 GW)
Nuclear9 GW(↑ from ~8 GW)
Gas CCUS9 GW(↑ from ~1 GW)
BECCS2 GW(↑ from ~0 GW)
Hydrogen Generation5 GW(↑ from ~0 GW)
Energy from Waste2 GW(Same)
Interconnectors21 GW(↑ from ~16 GW)

We will still be buying a fair amount (21GW) from Europe.

Did you think about these numbers before posting them. It is absolute fantasy data.

You must be insane.

We don't and can never have 28Gwatts of solar power!

This years daily average solar power on the grid:


We have a thing called night time.

We have a thing called winter.

The Uk is located between 50N and 56N, so seasonal insolation varies massively

Hydrogen generation? Pointless waste of energy. You waste at least 40% of useful electric power.

The inter-connector figures are ridiculous. At a maximum we get about 3Gw that way. Where do your figures come from? Dan Dare and the Eagle?

 

[Woosh]

We are VERY exposed right now. Get in a supply of candles and portable solar power stations. Your life could change very rapidly if Starmer sent the troops to help Ukraine.

The cheapest type 2 V2L kit on aliexpress costs only £11, up to 230V 10A. Cheaper than candles.
you can see why I am interested in V2L and or V2H kits.

 

[Woosh]

Did you think about these numbers before posting them. It is absolute fantasy data.

You must be insane.

Didn't make any of that up.
I was asking ChatGPT about investing in geothermal projects, compared to other projects on renewables. The conversation moves to the landscape of electricy generation in the UK in 10 years time.
I copied and pasted that table from ChatGPT.
BTW, you should read some of the papers that Peter Bridge posted. I found this one is very good:
the_role_of_natural_gas_in_electricity_prices_in_europe_updated_may_2023.pdf

 

[saneagle]

View attachment 64191

Gas didn't reach its peak output until 2008. At least 10% of the grid output came on in terms of gas CCGT between 2000 and 2008, so unless that investment was lying idle in the 1990s, it was built after that time. In any case, CCGT plant, when properly maintained will last forty to forty-five years.

They are much cheaper to refurbish than some other forms of generation. Wind Turbines have a comparatively short lifespan, being rendered useless in thirty years. The investment required to replace them is far more than it is to replace gas turbines, partly because each gas generator set is larger in terms of its output, so there are fewer units to work on, and CCGT plant are not located on top of a huge exposed stalk hundreds of feet above the sea.

EPRI Home

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) conducts research, development, and demonstration projects for the benefit of the public in the United States and internationally. As an independent, nonprofit organization for public interest energy and environmental research, we focus on electricity...

www.epri.com

.

Offshore wind costs £3 million per megawatt to build and install, whereas CCGT costs between £0.7 million to £1 million per megawatt to install.

Gas is cheap to build and repair. Wind is not.
Gas plant have a longer working life than wind.
Gas plant are reliable and not subject to output fluctuations
Gas plant are flexible and can be turned on and off without severe penalties in terms of reliability.

If we fracked our shale gas and nationalised it, we would have a reliable price, and abundant power. It has been estimated that we have sixty to a hundred years of national supply under our feet.


I am not advocating for ending wind generation - not at all.

I am arguing with your assertion that we will ever just dump gas before we have an adequate flexible supply for periods of low wind. This is a point that you have never engaged with except by coming up with your Dan Dare fantasy about battery storage.

Battery storage is all very well for short term dips in low carbon generation.It can NEVER be used to supply the lost wind power during winter and summer high pressure periods when the Polar Jet Stream moves to the north of the British Isles leaving us with next to no wind for days and often two or three weeks at a time. The January dip this year lost us almost 12 Terrawatts of wind power. You laugh at my 'back of the envelope' estimate, but you offer no detailed explanation of why it is far wrong. The data is available on how much wind output we actually had on the site I referenced. Instead you offer us your faith in the idea that the Chinese will come up with some technology.... You should change your screen name to 'Dan Dare - Pilot of the future' the title of a 1950s fantasy scifi character. You might remember it. It used to be in a boys comic called 'The Eagle', in the 1950s. This seems to be where half of your pie in the sky nonsense comes from.

2035 is only ten years away. We have nothing to replace gas for lengthy low wind periods or to balance the grid during wind lulls. Nuclear build takes vastly more than that. Sizewell took 12 years, and Hinkley Point has taken 15 and is not ready yet. The cost of the investment for these plant is vast and the electricity cost will be huge. In 2023 the price was to be £128.09 per Megawatt. It is also to be index linked to a price from 2012, when the investment was conceived, so it will rise with future inflation.

Another problem you have not noticed - at least you have not mentioned it, is that nuclear power has to be kept on stream. You can not turn it on and off like you can CCGT. This makes it unsuitable as a grid balancing system. Just like the old retired coal stations, if you turn them on and off and on and off the steam system suffers metal fatigue from expansion and contraction.

How can you base a national power production system on this level of variable generation? Look at the values on the vertical axis and remember that we are generally using 25Gw to 30 Gw in summer.

Above all, wind is unreliable. Look at these charts and seriously tell me we can rely on this for our constant need of power.

View attachment 64195


Source: https://gridwatch.co.uk/wind

The graph is wrong. It doesn't include the electricity I made by running my petrol generator, nor from the guy next door who was a right nuisance running his one day and night. They had no idea we were doing that, so couldn't have included it. Likewise from thousands of others.

 

[Tony1951]

The graph is wrong. It doesn't include the electricity I made by running my petrol generator, nor from the guy next door who was a right nuisance running his one day and night. They had no idea we were doing that, so couldn't have included it. Likewise from thousands of others.

Actually - your're right, and it reminds me - when I was thinking about low carbon energy, I should have considered the hub alternator on the Raleigh Twenty that I fixed up a few years ago and gave to my daughter in law. I even turned it into a twelve volts Led system with a rectifier and a voltage doubler circuit.

If we all fitted such devices, we could help save the planet by generating our own electricity as we ride along. We could fit spare batteries on the bike and charge them as we travel. Then when we get home, we can plug the battery into the kettle and make a cup of tea. Perfect. I think I'll call it the Dan Dare energy recovery system.

 

[saneagle]

Actually - your're right, and it reminds me - when I was thinking about low carbon energy, I should have considered the hub alternator on the Raleigh Twenty that I fixed up a few years ago and gave to my daughter in law. I even turned it into a twelve volts Led system with a rectifier and a voltage doubler circuit.

If we all fitted such devices, we could help save the planet by generating our own electricity as we ride along. We could fit spare batteries on the bike and charge them as we travel. Then when we get home, we can plug the battery into the kettle and make a cup of tea. Perfect. I think I'll call it the Dan Dare energy recovery system.

View attachment 64200

Good idea; however; the amount of CO2 you breathe out increases in proportion to the energy you expend, so your clean energy is not so clean. You can't beat science, and nor can the politicians.

 

[Tony1951]

Good idea; however; the amount of CO2 you breathe out increases in proportion to the energy you expend, so your clean energy is not so clean. You can't beat science, and nor can the politicians.

But that carbon I breathe out is only recycled biosphere carbon from my food which is derived from plants and sunlight, so it doesn't count, and since I am now increasingly eating lentils and losing weight (mostly I think from my body converting into methane) I have also been thinking about the pipework I would need to use that methane to cook my lentils.

I have designed a set of balloon underpants to act as a collector and will be able to connect it to my home gas pipework as soon as I have passed my CORGIE exams. As you know, it is highly illegal for an un-certified person to connect to, or interfere with gas installations.

In fact - my experience with lentils has led me to wonder if they should not be sold to people without a methane gas handling qualification.

I was googling and it looks like Paddy Power, who seems to be an Irish gentleman, has already developed balloon underpants, but his seem to have caught fire already. Must be a design fault.

 

[MikelBikel]

Why your electricity bill is skyrocketing.
" Its not rocket science "
Their Demand is squeezing the Supply, and d price goes up.
All coz u asked ChatGPT to think for you!

 

[Woosh]

Why your electricity bill is skyrocketing.
" Its not rocket science "
Their Demand is squeezing the Supply, and d price goes up.
All coz u asked ChatGPT to think for you!

Typical ballpark:

A short 100-word answer might use around 1–2 Wh.

A longer 300-word answer (taking 3× longer) might use around 3–6 Wh.

That's less than 1 penny for answering 3-4 questions on average. The cost also halves every 18 months due to better AI processors.
It's much more efficient than humans do the thinking if you take into account food, lodging health care, education, recreation etc and the results of human thinking is usually wrong.

 

[MikelBikel]

"Privatise the Profit while *Socializink* the Cost"
How very fasc :-/
Provide your own power AI
Use a Closed Loop Cooling System by collecting your own water on your own land AI.
Let's make AI Sustainable, loop it or lose it!

 

[Woosh]

"Privatise the Profit while *Socializink* the Cost"
How very fasc :-/
Provide your own power AI
Use a Closed Loop Cooling System by collecting your own water on your own land AI.
Let's make AI Sustainable, loop it or lose it!

They do that already. Heat is recycled, donated to the cities for heating.
New laws impose that condition as part of planning.

Real-World Examples of Heat Reuse from Data Centres:

Odense, Denmark (Facebook data centre)

Facebook’s data centre in Odense captures and donates up to 100,000 MWh per year of waste heat, feeding it into the city’s district heating system to heat homes.

Munters’ cooling technology enables this efficient heat transfer, supplying heat to nearly 11,000 homes free of charge.

At full output, the system can provide enough heat to warm about 6,900 homes.


Stockholm, Sweden

Through its “Open District Heating” initiative, Stockholm connects over 30 data centres to its district heating network.

This network delivers enough heat to warm 30,000 modern apartments annually.

The broader Stockholm Data Parks initiative aims for by 2035, data centres will provide 10% of the city’s total heating supply.


Mäntsälä, Finland

A 15 MW data centre supplies waste heat so effectively that it covers 54% of the town’s district heating needs (≈ 20 GWh) in 2018.

Result: 11% reduction in district heating prices, significantly increasing local affordability.


Meta in Odense (Denmark)

Meta’s hyperscale data centre in Odense has been channeling its excess heat into the local district heating system since 2020, covering 11,000 households.


Google in Finland

Google operates a data centre in Finland whose cooling system leverages sea water, enabling the capture and reuse of heat—heating 80% of local homes.



---

Broader Trends & Insights

Nordic leadership: Several Nordic nations—especially Sweden, Denmark, and Finland—are pioneers in integrating data-centre waste heat into urban heating infrastructure.

In Sweden, district heating and heat pumps now fulfill over 75% of the country’s energy demand; this includes recovered heat from data centres.

In the UK, heat-network penetration remains low (~2% of homes), but data-centre heat reuse could change this—potentially saving energy and driving £100 billion in investment by 2050, according to analysis.

Technology such as multi-stage heat pumps can upgrade low-grade heat (30–40 °C) to district heating temperatures of 60–90 °C with a Coefficient of Performance (COP) of 3–6×.



---

Summary Table

LocationData Centre Heat Use CaseImpact

Odense (Denmark)Facebook / Meta saving 100,000 MWh annuallyHeating ~11,000 homes using 100% renewable energy
Stockholm (Sweden)Over 30 centres feeding open district heatServing ~30,000 apartments; aiming for 10% of city’s heat by 2035
Mäntsälä (Finland)15 MW centre covers 54% of town’s heat demandCuts heating costs by 11%
Google in FinlandHeat 80% of local homesUsing seawater cooling to capture and reuse heat
UK (London)Proposed value from future heat networksCould heat hundreds of thousands of homes with proper infrastructure.

 

[saneagle]

They do that already. Heat is recycled, donated to the cities for heating.
New laws

You're living in cloud cuckoo land, or have you been watching the BBC again? If you watch any of DJ Audits videos, where he frequently flies his drone over brand new or under construction data centres, you will see banks of heat exchangers pumping heat into the atmosphere. Is that what you mean by donating heat to the cities?

 

[Woosh]

You're living in cloud cuckoo land, or have you been watching the BBC again? If you watch any of DJ Audits videos, where he frequently flies his drone over brand new or under construction data centres, you will see banks of heat exchangers pumping heat into the atmosphere. Is that what you mean by donating heat to the cities?

They also run heat pumps to bring the water to much higher temperature than the 40C that comes out of the data centres.
ChatGPT can help you with questions like how did they do that. Have you used chatGPT?

 

[saneagle]

They also run heat pumps to bring the water to much higher temperature than the 40C that comes out of the data centres.
ChatGPT can help you with questions like how did they do that. Have you used chatGPT?

I prefer to use my own eyes, intelligence and judgement to figure out what's going on.

Tyr this. Ask Chat GPT to analyse photos and videos of data centres, then explain about how they cool them based on that information.

 

[Woosh]

I prefer to use my own eyes, intelligence and judgement to figure out what's going on.

Tyr this. Ask Chat GPT to analyse photos and videos of data centres, then explain about how they cool them based on that information.

I can share the link to the chatGPT that listed all the examples of data centres that donate their heat to cities if you like. Here is one of the datacentres listed.
What you see are heatpumps, you already know that, but you did not check where the heat is going to. ChatGPT can prove that to you.

District heating from data centre waste heat, Mäntsälä - Sitra

Waste heat generated from the cooling of data centres can be used in district heating, as showcased by Mäntsälä, Finland. 2,500 MW of new data centres are expected in the Nordics by 2025. If their waste heat was used for district heating, it could reduce emissions by 1.1 Mt – as much as taking...

www.sitra.fi

Quote:
By 2025, new data centres requiring over 2,500 MW of electric power are expected to be located in the Nordic countries. If this heat was to be utilised in district heating, we estimate that it could replace 3.2 TWh of fossil heat production and reduce emissions by 1.1 MtCO2.


You should try asking chatGPT yourself. I can use my eyes too, but as i was taught at a young age, 'to err is human', I get chatGPT to critique my reasoning just to feel a little safer.

 

[saneagle]

I can share the link to the chatGPT that listed all the examples of data centres that donate their heat to cities if you like. Here is one of the datacentres listed.
What you see are heatpumps, you already know that, but you did not check where the heat is going to. ChatGPT can prove that to you.

District heating from data centre waste heat, Mäntsälä - Sitra

Waste heat generated from the cooling of data centres can be used in district heating, as showcased by Mäntsälä, Finland. 2,500 MW of new data centres are expected in the Nordics by 2025. If their waste heat was used for district heating, it could reduce emissions by 1.1 Mt – as much as taking...

www.sitra.fi

Quote:
By 2025, new data centres requiring over 2,500 MW of electric power are expected to be located in the Nordic countries. If this heat was to be utilised in district heating, we estimate that it could replace 3.2 TWh of fossil heat production and reduce emissions by 1.1 MtCO2.


You should try asking chatGPT yourself. I can use my eyes too, but as i was taught at a young age, 'to err is human', I get chatGPT to critique my reasoning just to feel a little safer.

Chat GPT can't tell the difference between BS, propaganda and reality. I can.