I know you can, depending on the subject though. We talked about it when Trump disputed the 2020 election, the Gamestop episode, the gold price. You have been correct many times. On Tesla, the jury is still out.
Prices of the electricity we use to charge
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
Remember what I said a few days ago. I just noticed that gold has gone up 1.6% in the last 24 hrs. That's now 37% in the last 12 months. I might be wrong about the timing, but I' won't be wrong on the event. Here's another prediction: The price of electricity will go up.
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Here is ChatGPT's reply.
Futures suggest UK wholesale prices in 2026 may be around 10% lower than 2025.
Where do you reckon it's wrong?
UK: Wholesale Electricity Price Trends
1. Long-term volatility driven by gas dependency
Wholesale electricity prices in Great Britain are highly volatile and closely track gas prices because gas plants frequently set the marginal price.BionicFinancial TimesReutersThe GuardianThe Times
2. Persistent elevated price levels
In the first half of 2025, average wholesale prices rose ~40% year-on-year, averaging nearly USD 115/MWh in the UK.IEA Though somewhat down from the 2022 peaks, prices are still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels—about 50% above early 2021 figures.ReutersBionicThe Guardian
3. Limited stability ahead despite declining 2026 outlook
Futures suggest UK wholesale prices in 2026 may be around 10% lower than 2025—but the market remains fragile due to gas and weather-dependent generation.IEA
4. Implications
Industries face some of the highest electricity costs globally (e.g., ~£258/MWh in 2023), blunting competitiveness.Financial Times Higher bills have been passed on to consumers, contributing to fuel poverty concerns.Reuters+1The Guardian Government is exploring reforms, but systemic exposure to gas remains a thorny challenge
That might be correct. My statement is correct too. Now ask Chat GPT how both can be correct.
S&P has gone up 20% since you said you were going to sell your stock in April because you thought Trump would crash the economy. Did Chat GPT help you confirm that decision? Let me know when you need a bailout.
My holding is Nasdag 100, essentially the magnificient seven, especially NVIDIA. I did speculate on SMCI. I didn't sell in April, I sold at the end of July to beginning of August and still keep Google and Amazon.
Here is ChatGPT on gold price, again, tell me where you disagree.
Will Gold Keep Rising in the Foreseeable Future?
Recent Developments & Analyst Sentiment
- Record high prices: Gold recently vaulted to a stunning $3,500+ per ounce, fueled by safe-haven demand amidst geopolitical uncertainty, inflation fears, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.(Financial Times, Reuters, The Guardian)
- Forecasts toward $4,000+:
- Goldman Sachs sees gold climbing to $3,700 by end-2025, and in severe recession scenarios, possibly reaching $3,880.(Goldman Sachs)
- JPMorgan expects an average of $3,675 in Q4 2025, rising toward $4,000 by Q2 2026.(JPMorgan, The Economic Times)
- Bank of America supports this bullish outlook, citing the combination of rate cuts and inflation.(Markets)
- A Reuters poll places the median gold forecast for 2025 at $3,220, and $3,400 in 2026. A more optimistic path could see gold hit $4,000 by end-2026 if U.S. fiscal issues worsen.(Reuters)
- Institutional buying & de-dollarization: Central banks—especially in Asia and among BRICS nations—are aggressively building gold reserves, driving demand.(Investopedia)
- Portfolio utility: A note from hedge fund DE Shaw sees gold as a non-productive store of value, with modest real returns (~0.5% above inflation), but highlights its diversification benefits—suggesting a portfolio allocation of 6.5%–9% under certain conditions.(MarketWatch)
- A Morningstar analyst predicts a 38% price drop over the next five years to around $1,820 per ounce, citing increased supply and potential decline in demand.(Business Insider)
- The concept of "gold fatigue" is emerging: as prices climb, investors may shift toward alternatives like platinum, which rose about 44% in early 2025.(Wikipedia)
Summary Table: Forecast Ranges
| Time Horizon | Bullish Scenario | Cautious/Moderate Scenario | Bearish Scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-term (2025) | $3,700 (Goldman), $3,675 (JPM), $3,220 (Reuters median) | $3,300–$3,600 (short-term), $3,211–$3,292 (various) | — |
| Mid-term (2026) | $4,000 (JPM, BofA), $3,813 (RBC), $3,400 (Reuters median) | $3,479–$3,826 (CoinCodex/WalletInvestor) | — |
| Long-term (2030+) | $5,000–$6,500 (CoinPriceForecast, LongForecast) | $4,800–$5,200 (WalletInvestor, CoinCodex) | — |
| Bearish outlook | — | — | $1,820 (Morningstar on 5-year horizon) |
Bottom Line
Gold’s recent surge—with record-setting prices and strong institutional demand—has set the stage for continued upside, particularly if interest rates fall, inflation remains sticky, and geopolitical tensions persist. Analysts from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America are pointing toward $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, while others remain moderate but bullish.
Yet, counterarguments exist. Concerns about oversupply, waning demand, or “gold fatigue” could decelerate or reverse gains—Morningstar’s forecast being the most stark bearish stance.
So, is gold likely to keep rising?
- Short- to mid-term (next 12–18 months): Most indicators point to continued upward momentum.
- Long-term (beyond): Growth could persist under supportive macro conditions, but the outlook is inherently uncertain and volatile.
Incidentally, when I first started investing in equities and stuff like that, I very quickly learnt a valuable lesson based on my intelligence, judgement and what I saw with my own eyes. When any institution or pundit tells you that shares or markets are going to go down, their prediction becomes true in the very short-term because all the thickos believes them and sell their interest quickly to minimise losses. That pushes the price down. The institutions are then able to buy at the lower price, and make big profits when the price returns to normal, then makes the increase that they knew would happen, but told you the opposite. The reverse happens when they predict a rise. That means they expect a fall and they need to sell their interest, so they encourage you to buy in order to facilitate their sale.
It depends what you mean by "price". You will be paying more for electricity next year than you are today.Yes, 2% on 1st October.
But next spring it will go down again.
.
Gold never changes it's value in the long-term. It's the currencies that go up and down in value - mainly down.
ChatGPT suggests this:
- Looking for growth: Platinum’s fundamentals suggest high upside, but be prepared for volatility.
- Balanced momentum play: Silver rides on both investment and industrial demand—a strong middle ground.
- Safe haven hedging: Gold remains reliable amid uncertainty, though upside may be limited short-term.
I am much more of the types that follow Warren Buffett's philosophy. Always consider the long term.
Prices don't interest me, I ignore them. So long as what my money earns, plus my surplus income combine to comfortably exceed inflation, I'm happy.
I'm on target to close this year 19.7% up, easily ahead of inflation enough to be unconcerned, especially at 89 years old and not able to take it with me!
.
I always spread my bets. My idea has never been to get rich, but to keep the value of what I have. I have investments in property, equities, gold, silver and collectables - a bit over a million pounds in total. If you're a thief and that gets your juices going, don't waste time coming to my house because all you'll find is loads of ebike stuff. There is nothing of value anywhere on the premises. I take security very seriously and I have a very creative mind.
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I expect he gets those answers by rigging the prompts.
I asked Chat Gpt about cherry picking.
The answer is well worth reading, actually. The llm explains how the output can be stacked in a particular way.
"Cherry-picking prompts is a very real way people can distort what a language model like me appears to say—because I’m designed to generate responses based on patterns in data, not to defend an ideology or maintain a single “true” position. Here’s how it plays out."
It's not cherry picking, it's framing.I expect he gets those answers by rigging the prompts.
I asked Chat Gpt about cherry picking.
The answer is well worth reading, actually. The llm explains how the output can be stacked in a particular way.
"Cherry-picking prompts is a very real way people can distort what a language model like me appears to say—because I’m designed to generate responses based on patterns in data, not to defend an ideology or maintain a single “true” position. Here’s how it plays out."
Like in all walks of life, there is rarely a single truth. ChatGPT needs the context to be clearly painted so it can search the Web for a particular set of facts. From there, it can use chain of thoughts to construct a reasoned argument or response.
The facts are real, the reasoning is solid. The argument is rational. What more do you want?
There is nuance in some discussions, but there is never, 'my truth and your truth .'
What there is, is TRUTH.
One thing that very much disappoints me about some political actors on the world stage is that they will systematically distort the truth to match their preferences. This is a terrible betrayal of the general public. Much more common though is a morass of lies on social media and hordes of fools following it.
In the end truth is truth. You do not get to mess with it in my book.
You should blame the listeners too. If they reject at least blatant lies, the problems would be more than halved. I knew that your 18TW estimate was over the top but still need help with finding a would be credible figure. I asked ChatGPT what were recent governments had planned. You could say that governments would want to minimise the net zero project costs, so did kind of lie.
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