Cycling. Health. Covid. Diet.

soundwave

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 23, 2015
11,642
4,786
well if it was man made in china it is fkn useless make the zombie variant so i can go chop ppls heads off on my ebike :p .

DSC_0109_03_01.JPG
 

guerney

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 7, 2021
983
389
No Chinese lab required. Deadly viruses which find themselves in a human host, mellow over time:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

The Russian Flu pandemic of 1889 killed approx a million people out of a worldwide population of 1.5 billion, and it was a similar disease killing similar groups, who have succumbed to Covid-19. It lasted about 8 years, but there was less international travel then... on the other hand there were no vaccines... therefore expect about 20 years of Covid-19 flareups, unless a 100% effective vaccine is developed, so that we can get 80% of populations fully immune, which is required to bring about herd immunity - this is impossible at present, because the best we can hope for with the current vaccine, is an average of 50% immunity with 100% vaccinated.
 

Tony1951

Pedelecer
Mar 27, 2016
193
91
70
No Chinese lab required. Deadly viruses which find themselves in a human host, mellow over time:
Read this article and you will see why the idea that it occurred as you suggest is most unlikely:

 

richtea99

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 8, 2020
283
195
Read this article and you will see why the idea that it occurred as you suggest is most unlikely:

A good read, thanks. Note the 5th para:
> I’ll describe the two theories, explain why each is plausible, and then ask which provides the better explanation of the available facts. It’s important to note that so far there is no direct evidence for either theory.

And in contrast:
> It's been known that it was man-made from the beginning,

How theory magically becomes fact. Let's wait for 'direct' evidence before declaring we have the answer.

(Although I do agree with this para halfway down the article:
> ... the available evidence leans more strongly in one direction than the other. Readers will form their own opinion. But it seems to me that proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence.)
 

vfr400

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 12, 2011
9,822
3,922
Basildon
No Chinese lab required. Deadly viruses which find themselves in a human host, mellow over time:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

The Russian Flu pandemic of 1889 killed approx a million people out of a worldwide population of 1.5 billion, and it was a similar disease killing similar groups, who have succumbed to Covid-19. It lasted about 8 years, but there was less international travel then... on the other hand there were no vaccines... therefore expect about 20 years of Covid-19 flareups, unless a 100% effective vaccine is developed, so that we can get 80% of populations fully immune, which is required to bring about herd immunity - this is impossible at present, because the best we can hope for with the current vaccine, is an average of 50% immunity with 100% vaccinated.
But the vaccine doesn't work. 60% of the people in Israel hospitals with the virus have been double vaccinated. Even if it was a proper vaccine, it would only work against last year's variant, not new ones. The whole thing is an unsolvable mess, with loads of opportunists making a lot of money and political opportunities from it. On top of that, no debate is allowed, nothing has been voted for. All we get is propaganda, none of which stands up to any scrutiny, and all supported by a load "fact checkers"paid for by those that stand to make the most money or other gain from the situation to add to the misdirection and confusion.

IMHO, the best approach would be to carry on as normal. Those that are most vulnerable should do their own shielding. Those that get it should be treated with the very effective anti-virals, like Ivermectin and Remdesivir.
 

soundwave

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 23, 2015
11,642
4,786
https://flic.kr/p/2k5z2Vf
https://flic.kr/p/2k5CNtL
DSC_0203_02.JPG

last year 2 nut jobs on race bike crashed in to me and i was not even moving when they hit me i guess im lucky to be alive from that damage to my finger i could have died.

i broke both there front wheels tho :p
 

nigelbb

Pedelecer
Sep 19, 2019
216
190
But the vaccine doesn't work. 60% of the people in Israel hospitals with the virus have been double vaccinated. Even if it was a proper vaccine, it would only work against last year's variant, not new ones. The whole thing is an unsolvable mess, with loads of opportunists making a lot of money and political opportunities from it. On top of that, no debate is allowed, nothing has been voted for. All we get is propaganda, none of which stands up to any scrutiny, and all supported by a load "fact checkers"paid for by those that stand to make the most money or other gain from the situation to add to the misdirection and confusion.

IMHO, the best approach would be to carry on as normal. Those that are most vulnerable should do their own shielding. Those that get it should be treated with the very effective anti-virals, like Ivermectin and Remdesivir.
Of course the vaccines work. They are extremely effective in reducing serious illness leading to hospital admission & death. In the UK while only 12% of the adult population are unvaccinated they make up 60% of hospital admissions with COVID-19.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
49,068
26,788
Of course the vaccines work. They are extremely effective in reducing serious illness leading to hospital admission & death. In the UK while only 12% of the adult population are unvaccinated they make up 60% of hospital admissions with COVID-19.
But they don't work well as vaccines. Vaccines are designed to prevent disease, rather than treat a disease once you have caught it.

But of course the Covid-19 vaccines in many instances are treating, having insufficiently prevented, so are best regarded as antigens**, highly desirable precautionary medicines rather than highly effective vaccines, ensuring if the disease is caught that the ill effects for the victim and others are minimised, albeit for a yet unknown period.

** An antigen boosts the immune system against a specific disease, especially promoting the production of antibodies.
.
 

StuartsProjects

Pedelecer
May 9, 2021
227
116
The death rate and hospitalisation rate in Israel, is now around half the rate it was at the beginning of the year.

So what has happened in Israel since their lockdown at the beginning of the year that has reduced the impact of Covid despite them now being out of lockdown ?
 

Tony1951

Pedelecer
Mar 27, 2016
193
91
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The death rate and hospitalisation rate in Israel, is now around half the rate it was at the beginning of the year.

So what has happened in Israel since their lockdown at the beginning of the year that has reduced the impact of Covid despite them now being out of lockdown ?
I was a bit puzzled by their current problem and looked up the data on their percentage of vaccinated population. It looks like they have a much lower rate of vaccine acceptance than we have, from memory, it seems they have about 60% of adults vaccinated. That is way too low to suppress serious cases and they have a far greater proportion of people in hospital than we do.
 

Tony1951

Pedelecer
Mar 27, 2016
193
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But they don't work well as vaccines. Vaccines are designed to prevent disease, rather than treat a disease once you have caught it.

But of course the Covid-19 vaccines in many instances are treating, having insufficiently prevented, so are best regarded as antigens**, highly desirable precautionary medicines rather than highly effective vaccines, ensuring if the disease is caught that the ill effects for the victim and others are minimised, albeit for a yet unknown period.

** An antigen boosts the immune system against a specific disease, especially promoting the production of antibodies.
.
I disagree with this Flecc, old chap.

Vaccines such as the flu vaccine are far less effective at preventing infection. In order to be passed in trials, vaccines need ony to pass the low bar of preventing infection in about 60% of recipients. The covid-19 vaccines are all far better than that - in the trials at least. From memory, they were between 80% and 90% effective at creating immunity. Also, the interval between doses in the two dose vaccines is important it seems. At the start of the vaccinatopn programme the UK was out on a limb in giving the dose twelve weeks apart. This however has it seems enhanced its effect.

Also don't forget that the vaccines have shrunk the proportion of infected people who get seriously ill by a very large margin. This is clear in the interactive graph on this page here:


As it happens, right now as I am typing this, the BBC Radio 4 statistics programme More or Less is on air and dealing with this very subject.

If you look for this weeks More or Less on BBC Sounds, you can hear it. It is a very good programme - one of the few BBC programmes I listen to these days. It is covering the issue dicussed here in good detail. They just said that initially the Phizer jab created higher resistance to infection than the AZ jab, but now it seems the Phizer one seems to wane rather faster than AZ.

I think there will be boosters probably in future.

More or Less: Are Covid Vaccines Waning?
 
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nigelbb

Pedelecer
Sep 19, 2019
216
190
But they don't work well as vaccines. Vaccines are designed to prevent disease, rather than treat a disease once you have caught it.

But of course the Covid-19 vaccines in many instances are treating, having insufficiently prevented, so are best regarded as antigens**, highly desirable precautionary medicines rather than highly effective vaccines, ensuring if the disease is caught that the ill effects for the victim and others are minimised, albeit for a yet unknown period.

** An antigen boosts the immune system against a specific disease, especially promoting the production of antibodies.
.
You obviously don't understand what vaccines are or how they work. It generally depends on the disease being prevented how effective the vaccine will be as the mimic infection by generating an immune response by any of a variety of means (live attenuated virus, dead virus, mRNA, virus antigen contained within another virus etc).

If you catch measles you will be immune for life & if you are immunised with the measles vaccine you will be immune for life.

If you develop COVID-19 you have a degree of immunity to the virus for some time & if you catch it again within that still to be determined period you will have a milder version of the disease. Likewise if vaccinated against COVID-19 you have a degree of immunity to the virus for some time & if you catch it again within that still to be determined period you will have a milder version of the disease.
 

vfr400

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 12, 2011
9,822
3,922
Basildon
I was a bit puzzled by their current problem and looked up the data on their percentage of vaccinated population. It looks like they have a much lower rate of vaccine acceptance than we have, from memory, it seems they have about 60% of adults vaccinated. That is way too low to suppress serious cases and they have a far greater proportion of people in hospital than we do.
Israel is the most vaccinated country in the world with 78.1% of the population had at least 2 doses on Sept5 2021.

There is no proof that the vaccine reduces anything. There are just talking heads on the TV saying it. The cases go up and down regardless. The proportion of people in hospital with severe symptoms that have been vaccinated roughly matches the proportion of the population that's been vacinated. What they say about the vaccine on the TV doesn't match the facts. They just blame new variants all the time. Whether it's new variants, it matters not. You're just as likely to end up in hospital with the virus whether you've been vaccinated or not.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
49,068
26,788
You obviously don't understand what vaccines are or how they work. It generally depends on the disease being prevented how effective the vaccine will be as the mimic infection by generating an immune response by any of a variety of means (live attenuated virus, dead virus, mRNA, virus antigen contained within another virus etc).
Since I already knew all of this and much much more, I obviously do understand.

And when I first posted back on March 8th what I've repeated above, among the many agrees and likes were the two members most scientifically knowledgable on this subject.

The performance of the Covid-19 vaccines authorised so far has been more that of desirable antigens rather than sufficiently effective vaccines.
.
 

Tony1951

Pedelecer
Mar 27, 2016
193
91
70
Israel is the most vaccinated country in the world with 78.1% of the population had at least 2 doses on Sept5 2021.

There is no proof that the vaccine reduces anything. There are just talking heads on the TV saying it. The cases go up and down regardless. The proportion of people in hospital with severe symptoms that have been vaccinated roughly matches the proportion of the population that's been vacinated. What they say about the vaccine on the TV doesn't match the facts. They just blame new variants all the time. Whether it's new variants, it matters not. You're just as likely to end up in hospital with the virus whether you've been vaccinated or not.
Not true.

According to Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations Israel has 62.7% of its population fully vaccinated and 68% of its population partially vaccinated. It is behind a host of other nations.

Acording to Statsitadot com it is in fact 39th country in ranking for vaccination.


Not sure why you are getting so much stuff wrong here. These things are readily checkable to anyone who has the remotest desire to post facts rather than gut feelings and prejudices.
 

nigelbb

Pedelecer
Sep 19, 2019
216
190
Since I already knew all of this and much much more, I obviously do understand.

And when I first posted back on March 8th what I've repeated above, among the many agrees and likes were the two members most scientifically knowledgable on this subject.

The performance of the Covid-19 vaccines authorised so far has been more that of desirable antigens rather than sufficiently effective vaccines.
.
I am a practising doctor. I work as a consultant in Emergency Medicine. I'm seeing COVID-19 patients on a daily basis & am pretty sure that I know more about this subject than others posting on this forum.

You are playing with words. All vaccines work in effect by being antigens that stimulate the body's own immune response. Some are more effective than others eg measles or smallpox are 100% effective because natural infection confers lifelong immunity. The COVID vaccines are very effective at reducing serious illness & death.

Anecdotally I haven't seen anyone who required hospital admission with COVID-19 in the last few months except those who were unvaccinated or had only had one jab.
 

nigelbb

Pedelecer
Sep 19, 2019
216
190
Israel is the most vaccinated country in the world with 78.1% of the population had at least 2 doses on Sept5 2021.

There is no proof that the vaccine reduces anything. There are just talking heads on the TV saying it. The cases go up and down regardless. The proportion of people in hospital with severe symptoms that have been vaccinated roughly matches the proportion of the population that's been vacinated. What they say about the vaccine on the TV doesn't match the facts. They just blame new variants all the time. Whether it's new variants, it matters not. You're just as likely to end up in hospital with the virus whether you've been vaccinated or not.
This is utter tripe. In the UK 60% of those in hospital with COVID-19 are unvaccinated yet only 12% of the adult population is unvaccinated. Your chances of serious illness & death are many times more likely if you are unvaccinated.
 

Tony1951

Pedelecer
Mar 27, 2016
193
91
70
Israel is the most vaccinated country in the world with 78.1% of the population had at least 2 doses on Sept5 2021.

There is no proof that the vaccine reduces anything. There are just talking heads on the TV saying it. The cases go up and down regardless. The proportion of people in hospital with severe symptoms that have been vaccinated roughly matches the proportion of the population that's been vacinated. What they say about the vaccine on the TV doesn't match the facts. They just blame new variants all the time. Whether it's new variants, it matters not. You're just as likely to end up in hospital with the virus whether you've been vaccinated or not.

Quote from AP News on Falsehoods circulating on Social Media Sites

Posts mislead on Israel vaccine data
By The Associated PressJuly 22, 2021


CLAIM: The newest Israeli data on COVID-19 infections indicate a complete vaccine failure on every level. The data from Israel shows that nearly all serious cases and deaths are among the vaccinated.
AP’S ASSESSMENT: Missing context. The claim ignores the fact that Israel has only a fraction of the COVID-19 cases that it had in January, before vaccines were widespread. Furthermore, the majority of adults in Israel are now vaccinated with two Pfizer shots. No vaccine is perfect at preventing breakthrough cases, but the data shows vaccines are reducing the number of people who are severely ill, hospitalized or die from the virus.
THE FACTS: Israel was one of the first countries to vaccinate a huge swath of its population against COVID-19. Health officials around the world have been watching to see how the country fares against COVID-19 variants and how effective the Pfizer vaccine works at protecting the population.
Misleading posts on social media are now twisting data from Israel to falsely claim the country’s vaccination program is a failure due to the number of breakthrough cases of COVID-19 among the vaccinated. Medical professionals say Israel’s vaccine program is making remarkable progress against the virus.
“The vaccination campaign was hugely effective,” Dr. William A Petri, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Virginia, said of Israel’s efforts. “It’s really extraordinary how well these vaccines work.”
Experts say the country’s high vaccination rates are keeping case numbers down and reducing hospitalization and deaths even as the delta variant is provoking an uptick in infections. Data from Johns Hopkins University shows Israel documented 1,118 new cases on July 21 -- which is less than a tenth of the 11,934 new cases the country had at its peak on Jan. 27, before vaccines were widespread.
“It doesn’t mean vaccines don’t work,” Dr. Robert Cyril Bollinger, Johns Hopkins University professor of infectious diseases, said about Israel’s data. “They have very low rates after vaccination versus where they were before vaccination.”
The vast majority of the new cases in the past month have shown only mild symptoms, but at least 73 people have had serious cases of COVID-19, the Associated Press reported. That is well below the more than 1,000 serious cases treated each day at the height of the pandemic, but up from 19 in mid-June.
Eran Segal, a scientist at Israel’s Weizmann Institute of Science who tracks COVID-19 data, tweeted on July 16 that the percent of COVID-19 patients who become critically ill has now decreased to 1.6% compared to 4% during a winter spike before vaccines were available.
As of Sunday, 56.3% of new cases in Israel were among vaccinated people. But that statistic reflects the fact that the majority of the population is now fully vaccinated.
Israel has a population of approximately 9.3 million people, of which more than 60% are fully vaccinated, according toJuly 21 numbers from the online scientific publication, Our World In Data. The country has had one of the swiftest vaccine rollouts in the world. By February, 80% of those over 60 had already received shots.
Since the start of the pandemic, experts have pointed out that vaccines are not 100% effective. In a July 5 statement, Israel’s Ministry of Health addressed the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine in light of the spreading delta variant and said, “the vaccine maintains an effectiveness rate of about 93% in preventing serious illness and hospitalization cases.”
___
This is part of The Associated Press’ ongoing effort to fact-check misinformation that is shared widely online, including work with Facebook to identify and reduce the circulation of false stories on the platform.

Here’s more information on Facebook’s fact-checking program
ADVERTISEMENT



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Original source of quote above
 

Tony1951

Pedelecer
Mar 27, 2016
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This is utter tripe. In the UK 60% of those in hospital with COVID-19 are unvaccinated yet only 12% of the adult population is unvaccinated. Your chances of serious illness & death are many times more likely if you are unvaccinated.
Well said and thank you.
 

StuartsProjects

Pedelecer
May 9, 2021
227
116
As it happens, right now as I am typing this, the BBC Radio 4 statistics programme More or Less is on air and dealing with this very subject.
Indeed, and the situation in Israel was mentioned.

Apparently when someone is admitted to hospital there who displays any of the potential covid symptoms (broad spectrum) they are recorded as hospitilised for covid, even if that was not the cause of thier admission.

Interesting stuff from start up to 06:00.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000zdtc
 
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