"Eurosceptics? what happened to calling them Remoaners?"

 

Errr..Euroseptics ( thought you,d like that OG) are leavers ?? I think...

 

Flecc

Strictly is cultural highlight of Tele at moment..put naked attraction on for 30 seconds...utter sh!te..I must be old...

2. Big money in the UK decides that enough is enough, major political realignment, and conciliation with EU, seeks extension to timescale and generates a fudge. The longer the war of words continues, the more difficult getting the EU to agree will become. It is no longer a council of ministers decision, but now involves all the remaining EU states.

3. A new election in the UK and possibly a new referendum with popular support , petitions the EU... This would be more acceptable to the EU parliment.

 

how about Big Money decides that brexit is exactly what suits them best, unrestricted capitalism, low tax, low import duty, generous non-domiciled regime, easy money laundering?

The tories will pay the EU, have a 3 years transitional period and win the next election by default.

...

how about Big Money decides that brexit is exactly what suits them best, unrestricted capitalism, low tax, low import duty, generous non-domiciled regime, easy money laundering?

The tories will pay the EU, have a 3 years transitional period and win the next election by default.

If that is what big money decides then the UK is xxxxxxxx.

...

 

If that is what big money decides then the UK is xxxxxxxx.

 

and will take Ireland with it.

and will take Ireland with it.

Yes I have been consistent.. there is no upside for Ireland, North or South from this Brexit thing, just bad and worse options. .. Bad is staying in the EU, worse is leaving it along with the UK.

 

The only good option would be for the UK to have an official change of heart.

Edited August 7, 20178 yr by Danidl

They appeared to have somehow changed sides in the view of the paper was the point I was trying to make!

 

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

... I'm sorry but that just don't cut it. "If wishes were fishes etc. ". It is precisely because there is a level of disharmony and incoherence that things will muddle on.

The only logical outcomes at present are.

1. Muddle on , remain arrogant and defiant and achieve a hard Brexit. A border is reinserted on the island of Ireland. UK refuses to engage and doesn't pay anything, enters a period of economic isolation, . Maybe even Hunger riots in the UK.

 

2. Big money in the UK decides that enough is enough, major political realignment, and conciliation with EU, seeks extension to timescale and generates a fudge. The longer the war of words continues, the more difficult getting the EU to agree will become. It is no longer a council of ministers decision, but now involves all the remaining EU states.

3. A new election in the UK and possibly a new referendum with popular support , petitions the EU... This would be more acceptable to the EU parliment.

 

Of these options regrettably 1 seems the most likely.....

 

It cant be 1. Ireland and Sinn Fein and the DUP all dont want a hard border...Ireland have suggested that NI plus Ireland should have a sea border round both NI and Ireland....that would effectively be a united Ireland,the DUP will hate that and May has just bribed them £1.5 billion for their 10 votes.

2. Big money...could be but why destroy the good EU-UK link....

3. Why do you have to have a GE or even a leadership election to have a second referendum...May could put it to parliament....the electorate would I think vote Remain,if for no other reason than everyone is pigsick of hearing about Brexit and it would stop all the media hype.

If May didnt get a vote for a second referendum through parliament I am sure she would call another GE,which the Tories wouldnt risk because it may let Corbyn into No 10. I think she would whip the vote and there are enough Labour MP's to easily carry it.

If she won the referendum,that would give her a mandate to unwind Brexit and carry her through to the next full term election,Corbyn would be left impotent.

KudosDave

They appeared to have somehow changed sides in the view of the paper was the point I was trying to make!

 

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

I don't think you are correct.

The tories will do whatever necessary to hold on to power, if soft brexit delivers a majority in parliament then they will have soft brexit and fiddle with it later.

JC is consistent but I don't think he will ever win over the majority in my lifetime and he is also a brexiter.

the amount of money is not large in comparison to the amount of trade we do with the EU in 10, 20, 50 years and/or membership fees.

The EU will do a free trade deal eventually, in time, the issue is between now and then.

... Eventually can be a long time... Google economic war Ireland and UK in the 1922 to 1936 period. The parallels between then and now are striking. A small country taking on an economic giant at least 15 times larger, and failing miserably. Actually 15 times larger is an understatement as there was an entity called the British empire and the commonwealth .

there is no reason for a trade war.

As soon as we agree on the bill, a deal is going to happen, and will develop over time like with Switzerland. Any delay, we'll collect more on duty than the EU.

Don't forget, at present, we remit something like 80% of the duty to the EU.

how about Big Money decides that brexit is exactly what suits them best, unrestricted capitalism, low tax, low import duty, generous non-domiciled regime, easy money laundering?

The tories will pay the EU, have a 3 years transitional period and win the next election by default.

Big money may be corrupt, but it's not quite depraved (in the way of, say, a brexit voter). Take a cleptocracy like south africa, it is owned by big money (Zupta brothers), but big money, in an I situational sense, is fleeing and the rand collapsing. Big money likes a degree of civilised infrastructure as much as most non brexiters.

Yes I have been consistent.. there is no upside for Ireland, North or South from this Brexit thing, just bad and worse options. .. Bad is staying in the EU, worse is leaving it along with the UK.

 

The only good option would be for the UK to have an official change of heart.

 

How do we decide that has or hasn't happened with no second referendum and no serious parties adopting remain policies ???

How do we decide that has or hasn't happened with no second referendum and no serious parties adopting remain policies ???

.. you can't... That is why I suggest that my option 1 a few posts ago is most likely, least desirable but most likely.

Big money likes a degree of civilised infrastructure as much as most non brexiters.

 

are you saying that our infrastructure, law and order, will simply collapse after brexit?

there is no reason for a trade war.

As soon as we agree on the bill, a deal is going to happen, and will develop over time like with Switzerland. Any delay, we'll collect more on duty than the EU.

Don't forget, at present, we remit something like 80% of the duty to the EU.

What are you smoking? If the UK leaves without agreement with the EU.. a plausible scenario, then there would be a trade war. There would be a hard EU border along the Newry road , policed by irish troops, augmented by the EU boarder police., And paid for by an additional supplement from Brussels to Dublin.. That's what no agreement means. The Irish government will have limited say.

Meanwhile the UK will have similar numbers of police, customs etc on their side , paid by the UK government. They , the UK government,will then be charged with designing and implementing a customs clearing regime... It's all horrible to contemplate.

What are you smoking? If the UK leaves without agreement with the EU.. a plausible scenario, then there would be a trade war. There would be a hard EU border along the Newry road , policed by irish troops, augmented by the EU boarder police., And paid for by an additional supplement from Brussels to Dublin.. That's what no agreement means. The Irish government will have limited say.

Meanwhile the UK will have similar numbers of police, customs etc on their side , paid by the UK government. They , the UK government,will then be charged with designing and implementing a customs clearing regime... It's all horrible to contemplate.

I didn't say that we will simply walk out.

I am saying that the tories will do whatever it takes to hold on to power.

There is no brownie points to get out of the EU without a deal, the current government will collapse if that happens because parliament won't tolerate a 'no deal' outcome.

If it's soft brexit, they'll go for it and tinker with it later.

however, a 3 years transitional period will be considered a good enough deal, capable of keeping the tories in power until they can negotiate a deal in time for the next GE.

I didn't say that we will simply walk out.

I am saying that the tories will do whatever it takes to hold on to power.

There is no brownie points to get out of the EU without a deal, the current government will collapse if that happens because parliament won't tolerate a 'no deal' outcome.

If it's soft brexit, they'll go for it and tinker with it later.

however, a 3 years transitional period will be considered a good enough deal, capable of keeping the tories in power until they can negotiate a deal in time for the next GE.

 

Soft Brexit... and transition deal are two terms we keep hearing.

 

care to define soft brexit?

 

or explain what we'd be transitioning too? and why the EU would offer a transition deal? Its like me wanting a divorce and then asking if I can still stay over 3 days a week??

are you saying that our infrastructure, law and order, will simply collapse after brexit?

we have made a decision (brexit) that is essentially about closet racism and grandiose delusions. in the long run it is financially and socially catastrophic (it cuts us off rom a life blood of new skill, talent and trade relations). America can get rid of their trump (and insane, racist trump moment of failed judgement). we cant get rid of brexit. we will ive with the consequences. It's a bit like having the trump family ordained to reign over usa for the next fifty years. Yup, it will collapse, slowly but inexorably.

What are you smoking? If the UK leaves without agreement with the EU.. a plausible scenario, then there would be a trade war. There would be a hard EU border along the Newry road , policed by irish troops, augmented by the EU boarder police., And paid for by an additional supplement from Brussels to Dublin.. That's what no agreement means. The Irish government will have limited say.

Meanwhile the UK will have similar numbers of police, customs etc on their side , paid by the UK government. They , the UK government,will then be charged with designing and implementing a customs clearing regime... It's all horrible to contemplate.

 

There would also be a trade war at Dover....if we no longer have to pay anti dumping duties then bicycles (non electric) will be 60% cheaper in the UK than France....can you imagine that French/German/Italian bike assemblers will happily pay 60% more for their chinese bikes than we do.

The customs at the EU channel ports will be strengthened by the EU and Kent will become a lorry park for backed up lorries...it will be awful.

The same applies to leather handbags,ally wheels,special steels. I dont know about food but I bet there will be smuggling of food products,whichever way is the cheapest tariff.

KudosDave

care to define soft brexit?

 

soft brexit: retain EFTA membership.

Pay reduced fee but participate in the single market.

 

explain what we'd be transitioning too?

 

transitional period = retain EFTA membership only for the duration of the transitional period, exiting to hard brexit but likely after concluding a free trade deal with the EU.

 

The tories will dress this as a victory. If a deal is not possible before 2022 then they will simply call the election before 2022, claiming that they need a majority in the HoC to negotiate a better deal.

I didn't say that we will simply walk out.

I am saying that the tories will do whatever it takes to hold on to power.

There is no brownie points to get out of the EU without a deal, the current government will collapse if that happens because parliament won't tolerate a 'no deal' outcome.

If it's soft brexit, they'll go for it and tinker with it later.

however, a 3 years transitional period will be considered a good enough deal, capable of keeping the tories in power until they can negotiate a deal in time for the next GE.

 

soft brexit: retain EFTA membership.

Pay reduced fee but participate in the single market.

The language would need to be moderated and soon

.. and when the inevitable disputes arise, who arbitrates? The ECJ? The courts of UK or a third body.

we have made a decision (brexit) that is essentially about closet racism and grandiose delusions.

 

I disagree. These undesirable elements have always been in our society, staying in the EU won't make them disappear.

brexit is more about taking back control, not about 'grandiose delusions'.

Soft Brexit... and transition deal are two terms we keep hearing.

 

care to define soft brexit?

 

or explain what we'd be transitioning too? and why the EU would offer a transition deal? Its like me wanting a divorce and then asking if I can still stay over 3 days a week??

I could see scenario in which a EU parliment might accept a transitional period. There will be a hope that sanity might breakout and UK re-evaluate. The EU values compromise.

soft brexit: retain EFTA membership.

Pay reduced fee but participate in the single market.

 

what ARE you smoking? the bigoted morons who voted brexit would never accept a reduced fee/participate in single market deal. even if they did the EU wouldn't. what you describe is essentially us begging the EU for scraps. that may be a negotiating strategy, but definitely not a good one.

 

transitional period = retain EFTA membership only for the duration of the transitional period, exiting to hard brexit but likely after concluding a free trade deal with the EU.

 

The tories will dress this as a victory. If a deal is not possible before 2022 then they will simply call the election before 2022, claiming that they need a majority in the HoC to negotiate a better deal.

.. and when the inevitable disputes arise, who arbitrates? The ECJ? The courts of UK or a third body

EFTA has its own court of justice.