The spat between Farage and Junkers got me thinking.

We voted by referendum to leave the EU,but we didn't say when we would leave. Even Boris is back-pedalling and in no hurry to trigger Article 50,the leave start button.

Our Parliament has 450 remainers out of 650,even with the whip it is not possible to vote through Article 50, even Boris(if he is our next PM) would not commit political suicide by trying.

Jeremy Hunt is already suggesting that the earliest trigger date will be 2020,after the next election and then we could be looking at a Parliament based upon a completely different manifesto,including a second referendum based upon a new deal.

It is ironic that the EU loses whatever the final outcome,note the EU cannot throw us out,there is no mechanism for that,we could stay in for 100 years...if they want us out they are going to have to give us a deal to get us out,they are obviously not keen on that.....but if they want us to stay in they are also going to have to give us a deal that will placate the leave vote,ie something about immigration,they are obviously not keen on that.Surely Boris could not have been clever enough to foresee this situation?

No wonder Junkers is spitting blood,the EU are caught between a rock and a hard place. Obviously,they are not going to willingly give us a deal so this limbo situation could go on for years.

In the meantime,things continue pretty much the same,except all the other countries that also have possible leave vote will look at the UK outcome and see how weak the EU really is.

Don't forget the referendum has no legal clout,it is purely advisory from the UK people,only Parliament can trigger Article 50,I suspect there will be many frustrated leave voters who see no change in the immigration situation.

All good fun.

KudosDave

Edited June 29, 20169 yr by Kudoscycles

There have been a few pivotal moments in history and we are fortunate enough to actually live through one and see it unfold..

All sounds very reasonable Dave but do you think our MPs would go against the referendum result?

 

All the best, David

Edited June 29, 20169 yr by Wisper Bikes

All sounds very reasonable Dave but do you think our MPs would go against the referendum result?

 

All the best, David

 

Yes,Yes,Yes.

But what will happen is that rejecting Article 50 by Parliament will immediately trigger a General Election,there will be potential MPs who will try to use the election to appeal to the leave voters,but people had a free vote in the referendum,old people were the drivers of the leave vote,but in a General Election they will vote for their local MP and vote for the party not the cause.

But there will be a completely new manifesto that Boris will use the threat of leaving the EU to wring concessions out of the EU,just the concessions that Cameron should have demanded before the referendum,but Boris will be in a much more powerful bargaining position,he appears a cuddly bunny but I think he is a canny guy.

He could end up the hero who gets what the majority want re immigration and says that the ball game is now so good we should stay.

Nobody will go anywhere near Article 50 until they are sure that they have negotiated the deal to appease the leavers,effectively the next General Election will be a second referendum,unless by 2020 we have all lost interest in it by then.

KudosDave

I wonder what would happen if Corbin came out in favour or leaving. It's what he really wants anyway..

I wonder what would happen if Corbin came out in favour or leaving. It's what he really wants anyway..

 

Don't Labour principles support the free movement of people and many of the human rights laws,it would surely be a rejection of core labour.

If Corbyn voted leave,he would be kicked out by both the MPs and his own voting party....don't forget most young people voted remain.

KudosDave

Don't Labour principles support the free movement of people and many of the human rights laws,it would surely be a rejection of core labour.

If Corbyn voted leave,he would be kicked out by both the MPs and his own voting party....don't forget most young people voted remain.

KudosDave

He was voted in by the people who also voted to leave. The party is struggling to get rid of him..

Actually most young people didn't bother to vote..

If Bawjaws Johnson does become the PM (Please God, NO) then I reckon he has to get the 'out' process started quite sharpish. If he doesn't then he'd never win a general election. The people who voted to leave did so for various reasons but they all thought the process wouldn't take long to start.

 

Most people, on both sides, are getting fed up already but the 'leave' leaders seem to have given up on it.

 

A lot of good might come from this, we might get rid of the Tories for a while.

 

However, Labour need to step up their game, Corbyn wouldn't win many votes, he reminds me of Michael Foot.

If Bawjaws Johnson does become the PM (Please God, NO) then I reckon he has to get the 'out' process started quite sharpish. If he doesn't then he'd never win a general election. The people who voted to leave did so for various reasons but they all thought the process wouldn't take long to start.

 

Most people, on both sides, are getting fed up already but the 'leave' leaders seem to have given up on it.

 

A lot of good might come from this, we might get rid of the Tories for a while.

 

However, Labour need to step up their game, Corbyn wouldn't win many votes, he reminds me of Michael Foot.

is there a danger to labour that if they are involved in tearing themselves apart, that UKIP are going to step in and fill the space. After all they have already taken a lot of labour ( and conservative) votes. It is certainly a volatile situation

A lot of good might come from this, we might get rid of the Tories for a while.

 

However, Labour need to step up their game

 

I don't think Labour have had a chance since the general election, regardless of who leads them. The reason is mainly where you are Jimod, the loss of seats in Scotland making it nearly impossible for them in the rest of the UK. So much of England is rather conservative by inclination and the Welsh are not as firmly supportive of Labour as they once were.

 

All removing Jeremy Corbyn will achieve is a continuation of no real opposition, the Conservatives inadequately faced by the pseudo-conservative Blairites.

.

I don't think Labour have had a chance since the general election, regardless of who leads them. The reason is mainly where you are Jimod, the loss of seats in Scotland making it nearly impossible for them in the rest of the UK. So much of England is rather conservative by inclination and the Welsh are not as firmly supportive of Labour as they once were.

 

All removing Jeremy Corbyn will achieve is a continuation of no real opposition, the Conservatives inadequately faced by the pseudo-conservative Blairites.

.

 

The problem labour has up here is the present leader and her predecessor, nobody rates them. Look at the recent Scottish election, Tories became the official opposition and Fife ended up with no Labour MSPs. If they can't win in Fife they're stuffed. I don't rate Corbyn at all, as I said he reminds me of Michael Foot and is unelectable.

 

I don't really rate the wee nippy sweetie Sturgeon either. Britain seems to be short of decent leaders lately.

 

Maybe I should enter politics. Vote Jim, he talks pish but it's honest pish.

The problem labour has up here is the present leader and her predecessor, nobody rates them. Look at the recent Scottish election, Tories became the official opposition and Fife ended up with no Labour MSPs. If they can't win in Fife they're stuffed. I don't rate Corbyn at all, as I said he reminds me of Michael Foot and is unelectable.

 

I don't really rate the wee nippy sweetie Sturgeon either. Britain seems to be short of decent leaders lately.

 

Maybe I should enter politics. Vote Jim, he talks pish but it's honest pish.

vote Honest Jim Pish has a certain ring to it.. does it not?

Brexit Brexit and so far we will start to feel it in our pockets. I can't see any option to maintain prices at the same level so sadly from next delivery our kits must go up on price by the percentage of a loss of Sterling :-(

There have been a few pivotal moments in history and we are fortunate enough to actually live through one and see it unfold..

 

 

You think this a good thing? The Chinese have a way of wishing someone ill, saying:

 

"May you live in interesting times".

.

You think this a good thing? The Chinese have a way of wishing someone ill, saying:

 

"May you live in interesting times".

.

I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing. I suspect it will be a bad thing but I could be wrong and only time will tell. Everyone, including me, thought remain would win hands down... so what do I know?

I am just saying that we are living through a significant political event that will go down in the history books and be taught in schools.

Like Oxydrive said,if the pound v US dollar stays at this level then prices will have to rise,not just bicycles but everything that is dollar sourced including imported food.

Kudos have hedged for some time and have stock,including all our new bikes,to hold e-bike prices for 2016.

The uncertainty is whether this low dollar rate is a blip or is 1.30 the new long term rate.

If the latter we are in for a period of high inflation.

Hope the Brexiters are ready to dig deeper in their pockets for this experiment?

KudosDave

Like Oxydrive said,if the pound v US dollar stays at this level then prices will have to rise,not just bicycles but everything that is dollar sourced including imported food.

Kudos have hedged for some time and have stock,including all our new bikes,to hold e-bike prices for 2016.

The uncertainty is whether this low dollar rate is a blip or is 1.30 the new long term rate.

If the latter we are in for a period of high inflation.

Hope the Brexiters are ready to dig deeper in their pockets for this experiment?

KudosDave

Just to oppose that view slightly.. my export sales have gone up , in fact I received a message from a customer in Denmark to say.. since your Brexit your products are now much cheaper...

always 2 sides to any argument

Just to oppose that view slightly.. my export sales have gone up , in fact I received a message from a customer in Denmark to say.. since your Brexit your products are now much cheaper...

 

Same here,my sales to the EU have increased since the £ v € has fallen to 1.20. That's good but when I replace those products at £ v $ at 1.30 it doesn't look so good.

Prices will have to rise so the exchange rate advantage to the EUcustomer will be nullified.

I don't buy much from the EU but some of my competitors are 100% supplied from Italy,they are not so happy

KudosDave

Same here,my sales to the EU have increased since the £ v € has fallen to 1.20. That's good but when I replace those products at £ v $ at 1.30 it doesn't look so good.

Prices will have to rise so the exchange rate advantage to the EUcustomer will be nullified.

I don't buy much from the EU but some of my competitors are 100% supplied from Italy,they are not so happy

KudosDave

Ah. Just bought some ebike bits from Italy... know what you mean..lol

The exchange rate has nothing to do with brexit, that's just smoke and mirrors. The Bank of England is desperate to weaken stirling, though they will never openly say so, because the ensuing inflation makes government debt cheaper to pay back. The general public and traders are the ones to pay the price. It's also called a stealth tax.

If the £/$ rate or £/ Euro rate stays low for too long, then those currencies will be weakened relative to the pound. It's a big game/race to the bottom, all because governments worldwide have spent years in deficit spending, spending our future and our childrens future by printing money out of thin air. The levels of debt are now so massive that they cannot be paid back----ever.

Have a look at this:

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/unitedstates

Not only are the numbers incomprehensible, the speed at which they move is truly frightening. Think that the dollar doesn't affect you? Have look at this:

http://www.debtclocks.eu/public-debt-and-budget-deficit-of-the-united-kingdom.html

This is why your savings never seem to grow, the value(spending power) of the £10 note in your pocket, is diminishing as you read this. All because your government (doesn't matter what colour) has decided, on your behalf, to spend money it hasn't got or earned.

This is truly criminal as demonstrated by what would happen to you if you tried the same trick.

Sorry guys, just had to rant.

I LOVE MY EZEE CONVERSION !

Benjahmin, well said. This government borrowing/spending policy goes against everything I learnt growing up to do with money. I was taught that debt was evil and shamefull! If I didn't save up for something, I didn't get it. I've lived my life by this rule, apart from a mortgage.

How times have changed. It seems normal now for households to have tens of thousands of pounds worth of debt just so they can have new cars, holidays and consumer crap they don't need.

Benjahmin, well said. This government borrowing/spending policy goes against everything I learnt growing up to do with money. I was taught that debt was evil and shamefull! If I didn't save up for something, I didn't get it. I've lived my life by this rule, apart from a mortgage.

How times have changed. It seems normal now for households to have tens of thousands of pounds worth of debt just so they can have new cars, holidays and consumer crap they don't need.

I think the problem is that a lot of younger people look at such as me/us and seeing what we have they want the same but want it now! And they dont take into account the 40+years of working that it has taken to get here.

It seems not uncommon to add an extra 20 grand on top of a mortgage to buy a new car.... In fact most new car deals are aimed specifically at buyers who cant afford one!!

And when they fall behind with the payments there are all these nearly new cars for sale...

... Which we old farts who aren't image conscious buy cheap